Distributed process modeling for regional assessment of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise

Sea-level rise involves increases in the coastal processes of inundation and erosion which are affected by a complex interplay of physical environmental parameters at the coast. Many assessments of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise have been detailed and localised in extent. There is a need for regional assessment techniques which identify areas vulnerable to sea-level rise. Four physical environmental parameters – elevation, exposure, aspect and slope, are modeled on a regional scale for the Northern Spencer Gulf (NSG) study area using commonly available low-resolution elevation data of 10 m contour interval and GIS-based spatial modeling techniques. For comparison, the same parameters are modeled on a fine-scale for the False Bay area within the NSG using high-resolution elevation data. Physical environmental parameters on the two scales are statistically compared to coastal vulnerability classes as identified by Harvey et al. [1] using the Spearman rank-correlation test and stepwise linear regression. Coastal vulnerability is strongly correlated with elevation and exposure at both scales and this relationship is only slightly stronger for the high resolution False Bay data. The results of this study suggest that regional scale distributed coastal process modeling may be suitable as a first cut in assessing coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise in tide-dominated, sedimentary coastal regions. Distributed coastal process modeling provides a suitable basis for the assessment of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise of sufficient accuracy for on-ground management and priority-setting on a regional scale.     

Air concentrations of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in 2002–2004 at a rural site in the Great Lakes

Atmospheric PBDEs were measured on a monthly basis in 2002–2004 at Point Petre, a rural site in the Great Lakes. Average air concentrations were 7.0 ± 13 pg m^?3 for Σ₁₄BDE (excluding BDE-209), and 1.8 ± 1.5 pg m^?3 for BDE-209. Concentrations of 3 dominant congeners (i.e., BDE-47, 99, and 209) were comparable to previous measurements at remote/rural sites around the Great Lakes, but much lower than those at urban areas. Weak temperature dependence and strong linear correlations between relatively volatile congeners suggest importance of advective inputs of gaseous species. The significant correlation between BDE-209 and 183 implies their transport inputs associated with particles. Particle-bound percentages were found greater for highly brominated congeners than less brominated ones. These percentages increase with decreasing ambient temperatures. The observed gas/particle partitioning is consistent with laboratory measurements and fits well to the Junge–Pankow model. Using air mass back-trajectories, atmospheric transport to Point Petre was estimated as 76% for BDE-47, 67% for BDE-99, and 70% for BDE-209 from west–northwest and southwest directions. During the same time period, similar congener profiles and concentration levels were found at Alert in the Canadian High Arctic. Different inter-annual variations between Point Petre and Alert indicate that emissions from other regions than North America could also contribute PBDEs in the Arctic. In contrast to weak temperature effect at Point Petre, significant temperature dependence in the summertime implies volatilization emissions of PBDEs at Alert. Meanwhile, episodic observations in the wintertime were likely associated with enhanced inputs through long-range transport during the Arctic Haze period.     

Continental scale passive air sampling of persistent organic pollutants using rapidly equilibrating thin films (POGs)

A novel design of rapidly equilibrating passive air sampler was deployed at 38 sites across 19 European countries to investigate short-term spatial variability of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Devices were sealed in airtight containers to eliminate the possibility of contamination during transit and couriered to recipients with deployment instructions. Exposure times of 7days permitted the use of back trajectory analysis to further understand the factors responsible for influencing the large-scale spatial distribution of PCBs, PBDEs, PCNs, PAHs, lindane and HCB. Following sampler harvest, devices were sealed and returned for analysis. Comparison of sequestered levels showed that PAHs exhibited the greatest spatial variability (by a factor of 30) with higher levels often associated with greater population density. In contrast, HCB values were much more uniform, reflecting its well mixed distribution in the atmosphere. Spatial variation was strongly influenced by air mass origin, with lower levels being observed at most sites impacted by maritime air masses.     

Persistent organochlorines in the serum of the non-occupationally exposed New Zealand population

Concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and organochlorine pesticides were measured in the serum of a sample of the New Zealand population aged 15 years and older. This was the first study to obtain representative measures of PCDDs, PCDFs and PCBs in the adult population of an entire country. Serum samples were obtained in 1996-1997. Potentially occupationally exposed individuals were excluded. Serum samples were pooled according to stratification criteria for area of residence, ethnicity, age, and sex. Of the 80 possible strata, sufficient serum for chemical analysis was available for 60, to which 1,834 individual samples contributed. For the PCDDs and PCDFs, most 2,3,7,8-chlorinated congeners were measured in all strata, with a mean toxic equivalents concentration across all strata of 12.8 ng TEQ kg(-1) lipid. Seven PCB congeners were frequently measured, including the coplanar congeners #126 and #169, quantified in all strata. Of the pesticides and their metabolites, only beta-HCH, dieldrin and pp'-DDE were consistently detected across strata. There was a general trend of increasing concentration with age. There were no consistent differences between the sexes, or between people of Maori (the indigenous people of New Zealand) and non-Maori ethnicity. Concentrations of PCDDs and PCDFs tended to increase in a North-South direction, possibly reflecting greater levels of industrialization and population concentration, and concentrations of the pesticide products were highest in the South, possibly reflecting historical use patterns. Results were consistent with a recent study of concentrations of these compounds in the milk of first-time mothers.     

Disconnected futures: exploring notions of ethical responsibility in energy practices

This article aims to explore people's connections to or disconnections from the future and the implications of this for their perspectives on equity, justice and ethical issues related to energy consumption. Everything people do is embedded and extended in time across the modalities of past, present and future, making time an inescapable aspect of our existence, yet one that often remains invisible and intangible. Debates about energy and environmental equity have raised questions about the extent to which people today should bear responsibility for the consequences of their behaviour for future generations. Seemingly intractable difficulties have been identified, however, in people's abilities to connect their present actions with their potential future consequences and thus take on such responsibilities. Drawing on data from interviews about energy consumption practices, this article explores whether people's living temporal extensions through younger generations of their families influence their views and practices around energy use in both the present and anticipated future. Through exploring these issues we offer a contribution to the ethical debate around responsibility for future generations.     

Learning and local government in coastal South Australia: towards a community of practice framework for adapting to global change

Social learning can be a vital tool in assisting communities to adapt to change. Local governments can be a conduit between the communities they serve and the policy that they are trying to implement. Social learning in this context can be an iterative, often organic process. Based on a case study of coastal planning in South Australia, Australia, this paper presents the results of a qualitative mixed-method approach that documents the aspects of social learning within coastal management and evaluates the various lessons learned by local governments in South Australia. The role of social learning and adaptive governance is discussed. The paper concludes that by deliberatively incorporating the notion of communities of practice into learning frameworks, local governments can more effectively manage their coastal zones in response to global change.     

Much ado about nothings: using zero similarity points in distance-decay curves

Distance decay is used to describe the (usually exponential) decay in ecological similarity of assemblages between two sites as a function of their distance apart along an environmental gradient. Exponential distance-decay curves are routinely fitted by calculating the ecological similarity between each pair of sites, and fitting a linear regression to the points on a scatter plot of log-similarity vs. distance (x-axis). However, pairs of sites where the assemblages have no species in common pose a problem, because the similarity is zero, and the log transformation cannot be applied. Common fixes to this problem (i.e., either removing or transforming the zero values) are shown to have undesirable consequences and to give widely disparate estimates. A new method is presented as a special case of a generalized dissimilarity model. It is fitted very quickly and easily using existing software, and it does not require removal or transformation of the zero similarity points. Its simplicity makes it convenient for use in conjunction with the resampling methods that are routinely employed to test hypotheses, to obtain standard errors of estimated parameters, or to compare distance-decay curves. A word of caution about standard application of the bootstrap is noted, and modified bootstrap and jackknife alternatives are demonstrated.     

Patterns of egg yolk antioxidant co-variation in an avian brood parasite–host system

Despite their importance to offspring fitness outcomes, there has been little previous work on egg-mediated maternal effects in avian brood parasites which lay their eggs in the nests of other species. Here, we examine patterns of egg yolk antioxidant deposition in an avian host (red-winged blackbird, Agelaius phoeniceus) and their brood parasite (brown-headed cowbird, Molothrus ater). Cowbird nestlings compete directly for food with host blackbird chicks and succeed, despite hatching from a smaller egg, by begging more intensely and growing as or more rapidly than their hosts. Dietary-derived antioxidants, such as carotenoids and vitamins E and A, deposited in egg yolk, may enhance growth rate and reduce oxidative stress, and therefore provide a potential mechanism by which female cowbirds could enhance the competitiveness of their young in host nests. However, provision of antioxidants to eggs is costly so we predicted that female cowbirds should adjust the amount of antioxidants in response to variation in host quality. We found that whilst red-winged blackbird clutches parasitised by cowbirds did not differ in the pattern of antioxidant deposition compared to non-parasitised clutches, levels of vitamin E deposited in cowbird eggs were closely matched to that of the individual host clutch in which cowbirds laid their egg. This supports the prediction that female cowbirds adjust the antioxidant concentration of their eggs to increase the likely competitiveness of their offspring in the host nest into which they are laid and may help explain the success of cowbirds in competing with larger host young.     

Drivers influencing adaptive management: a retrospective evaluation of water quality decisions in South East Queensland (Australia)

This article analyzes interviews with natural resource managers in South East Queensland (SEQ), Australia. The objectives of the research are (i) to apply and test deductive/inductive text analysis methods for constructing a conceptual model of water quality decision-making in SEQ, (ii) to understand the role of information in the decision-making process, and (iii) to understand how to improve adaptive management in SEQ. Our methodology provided the means to quickly and objectively explore interview data and also reduce potential subjective bias normally associated with deductive text analysis methods. At a more practical level, our methodology indicates potential intervention points if one is to influence the decision-making process in the region. Results indicate that relevant information is often ignored in SEQ, with significant consequences for adaptive management. Contextual factors (political, social, and environmental) together with effective communication or lobbying strategies often prevent evidence-based decisions. We propose that in addition to generating information to support decisions, adaptive management also requires an appraisal of the true character of the decision-making process, which includes how stakeholders interact, what information is relevant and salient to management, and how the available information should be communicated to stakeholders and decision-making bodies.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-014-0537-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.