New Zealand drivers study: developing a methodology for conducting a follow-up study of newly licensed drivers

PROBLEM: In recent years, there has been a significant reduction in traffic crash injury among young people, but they continue to be overrepresented in the traffic crash statistics. To improve this situation, sound scientific evidence is needed to develop effective policies and programs. METHOD: The aim of the proposed study is to provide this evidence by examining early driving and driving-related experiences of newly licensed drivers as they progress through the learner-, restricted-, and full-license stages of the graduated licensing system and to determine the impact of these experiences on subsequent negative traffic-related outcomes (risky driving behavior, injury traffic crashes, noninjury traffic crashes, infringements, convictions). Given the size and complexity of the proposed study, a comprehensive pilot study was undertaken to determine the feasibility of conducting a New Zealand-wide cohort study of newly licensed drivers. RESULTS: This article describes the pilot study process and the methodology that has been developed for the New Zealand-wide study.     

Communication openness with friends,relatives and children of couples having amniocentesis

In a study of couples having amniocentesis for prenatal diagnosis of genetic defects, it was found that couples were open in telling friends and relatives about the procedure. Couples were more conservative, however, in telling their children about amniocentesis and the implications of a positive diagnosis.     

Modeling Flow,Nutrient, and Sediment Delivery from a Large International Watershed Using a Field‐Scale SWAT Model

A large international watershed, the St. Clair‐Detroit River System, containing both extensive urban and agricultural areas, was modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The watershed, located in southeastern Michigan, United States, and southwestern Ontario, Canada, encompasses the St. Clair, Clinton, Detroit (DT), Sydenham (SY), Upper, and Lower Thames subwatersheds. The SWAT input data and model resolution (i.e., hydrologic response units, HRUs), were established to mimic farm boundaries, the first time this has been done for a watershed of this size. The model was calibrated (2007–2015) and validated (2001–2006) with a mix of manual and automatic methods at six locations for flow and water quality at various time scales. The model was evaluated using Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and percent bias and was used to explore major water quality issues. We showed the importance of allowing key parameters to vary among subwatersheds to improve goodness of fit, and the resulting parameters were consistent with subwatershed characteristics. Agricultural sources in the Thames and SY subwatersheds and point sources from DT subwatershed were major contributors of phosphorus. Spatial distribution of phosphorus yields at HRU and subbasin levels identified locations for potential management targeting for both point and nonpoint sources and revealed that in some subwatersheds nonpoint sources are dominated by urban sources.     

A framework for analyzing climate change adaptations as actions

Developing generalized theories about adaptation to climate change requires common concepts to map different adaptation situations. The paper aims to contribute to this endeavor by presenting a novel framework that conceptualizes adaptations to climate change as actions. The framework is intended to systematically analyze the actor relations involved in adaptations and the barriers to their implementation. By combining established scientific action theories with terminology from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in an innovative way, it can be used to clarify the notion of adaptation used in adaptation assessments. The framework’s potential is illustrated by a case study on cooling water management in the river Rhine catchment and by the elucidation of some prominent concepts in adaptation research. We show that by framing adaptations as actions, the purpose of adaptations and how they tend to connect up in means-ends-chains becomes crucial. Actors can take different functional roles as exposure unit, operator and receptor of adaptation. A mismatch of these roles can lead to barriers to adaptation, of which we deduce four types: complex actor relations, missing operators, missing means and unemployed means. The case study yields a complex bundle of adaptations, and shows that the potential barriers involved are quite diverse. There is thus no blueprint solution. Although we identify entry points for adaptation, the analysis leads to a skeptical conclusion for adapting cooling water management in the whole Rhine catchment.     

Characterizing the intrinsic bioremediation potential of 1,4-dioxane and trichloroethene using innovative environmental diagnostic tools

An intrinsic biodegradation study involving the design and implementation of innovative environmental diagnostic tools was conducted to evaluate whether monitored natural attenuation (MNA) could be considered as part of the remedial strategy to treat an aerobic aquifer contaminated with 1,4-dioxane and trichloroethene (TCE). In this study, advanced molecular biological and stable isotopic tools were applied to confirm in situ intrinsic biodegradation of 1,4-dioxane and TCE. Analyses of Bio-Trap? samplers and groundwater samples collected from monitoring wells verified the abundance of bacteria and enzymes capable of aerobically degrading TCE and 1,4-dioxane. Furthermore, phospholipid fatty acid analysis with stable isotope probes (PLFA-SIP) of the microbial community validated the ability for microbial degradation of TCE and 1,4-dioxane. Compound specific isotope analysis (CSIA) of groundwater samples for TCE resulted in δ(13)C values that indicated likely biodegradation of TCE in three of the four monitoring wells sampled. Results of the MNA evaluation showed that enzymes capable of aerobically degrading TCE and 1,4-dioxane were present, abundant, and active in the aquifer. Taken together, these results provide direct evidence of the occurrence of TCE and 1,4-dioxane biodegradation at the study site, supporting the selection of MNA as part of the final remedy at some point in the future.     

Aerosol Research and Inhalation Epidemiological Study (ARIES): Air Quality and Daily Mortality Statistical Modeling— Interim Results

ABSTRACT

The Aerosol Research and Inhalation Epidemiological Study (ARIES) is an EPRI-sponsored project to collect air quality and meteorological data at a single site in northwestern Atlanta, GA. Seventy high-resolution air quality indicators (AQIs) are used to examine statistical relationships between air quality and health outcome end points. Contemporaneous mortality data are collected for Fulton and DeKalb counties in Georgia. Currently, 12 months of air quality and weather data are available for analysis, from August 1998 through July 1999.

The interim mortality analysis used Poisson regression in generalized additive models (GAMs). The estimated log-linear association of mortality with various AQIs was adjusted for smoothed functions of time and meteorological data. The analysis considered daily deaths due to all nonaccidental causes, deaths to persons 65 years or older, and deaths in each of the two constituent counties. The fine particle effect associated with the four mortality subgroups, using only today (lag 0), yesterday (lag 1), 2-day average (average of today and yesterday), and first difference (today minus yesterday) measurements of the air quality relative to today's number of deaths was positive for lag 0, lag 1, and 2-day average and positive only for decedents at least 65 years of age using first difference. The t values ranged from 0.81 to 1.15 for lag 0, 1.04 to 1.53 for lag 1, 1.10 to 1.66 for 2-day average, and -0.32 to 0.33 for first difference with 346 or 347 days of data. No statistically significant estimate of the linear coefficient was found for the other 14 air quality variables in our interim analysis for the four mortality subgroups. We discuss diagnostics to support these models.

These interim analyses did not include an evaluation of sensitivity to a larger set of lag structures, nonlinear model specifications, multipollutant analyses, alternative weather model and smoothing model specifications, air pollution imputation schemes, or cause-specific mortality indicators, nor did they include a full reporting of model selection or goodness-of-fit indicators. No conclusion can be drawn at this time about whether the findings from subsequent studies have sufficiently greater power to detect effects comparable to those found in other U.S. cities including at least 2 or 3 years of data.     

A framework for sustainable invasive species management: Environmental,social, and economic objectives

Applying the concept of sustainability to invasive species management (ISM) is challenging but necessary, given the increasing rates of invasion and the high costs of invasion impacts and control. To be sustainable, ISM must address environmental, social, and economic factors (or “pillars”) that influence the causes, impacts, and control of invasive species across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Although these pillars are generally acknowledged, their implementation is often limited by insufficient control options and significant economic and political constraints. In this paper, we outline specific objectives in each of these three “pillars” that, if incorporated into a management plan, will improve the plan’s likelihood of sustainability. We then examine three case studies that illustrate how these objectives can be effectively implemented. Each pillar reinforces the others, such that the inclusion of even a few of the outlined objectives will lead to more effective management that achieves ecological goals, while generating social support and long-term funding to maintain projects to completion. We encourage agency directors and policy-makers to consider sustainability principles when developing funding schemes, management agendas, and policy.     

Ecosystem states: Creating a data-derived, ecosystem-scale ecological response model that is explicit in space and time

Increasing difficulties associated with balancing consumptive demands for water and achieving ecological benefits in aquatic ecosystems provide opportunities for new ecosystem-scale ecological response models to assist managers. Using an Australian estuary as a case study, we developed a novel approach to create a data-derived state-and-transition model. The model identifies suites of co-occurring birds, fish, benthic invertebrates and aquatic macrophytes (as ‘states’) and the changing physico-chemical conditions that are associated with each (‘transitions’). The approach first used cluster analysis to identify sets of co-occurring biota. Differences in the physico-chemical data associated with each state were identified using classification trees, with the biotic distinctness of the resultant statistical model tested using analysis of similarities. The predictive capacity of the model was tested using new cases. Two models were created using different time-steps (annual and quarterly) and then combined to capture both longer-term trends and more-recent declines in ecological condition. We identified eight ecosystem states that were differentiated by a mix of water-quantity and water-quality variables. Each ecosystem state represented a distinct biotic assemblage under well-defined physico-chemical conditions. Two ‘basins of attraction’ were identified, with four tidally-influenced states, and another four independent of tidal influence. Within each basin, states described a continuum of relative health, manifest through declining taxonomic diversity and abundances. The main threshold determining relative health was whether freshwater flows had occurred in the region during the previous 339 days. Canonical analyses of principal coordinates tested the predictive capacity of the model and demonstrated that the variance in the environmental data set was well captured (87%) with 52% of the variance in the biological data set also captured. The latter increased to >80% when long- and short-term biological data were analysed separately, indicating that the model described the available data for the Coorong well. This approach thus created a data-derived, multivariate model, where neither states nor transitions were determined a priori. The approach did not over-fit the data, was robust to patchy or missing data, the choice of initial clustering technique and random errors in the biological data set, and was well-received by local natural resource managers. However, the model did not capture causal relationships and requires additional testing, particularly during future episodes of ecological recovery. The approach shows significant promise for simplifying management definitions of ecological condition and, via scenario analyses, can be used to assist in manager decision-making of large, complex aquatic ecosystems in the future.     

Knowledge gain and behavioral change in citizen-science programs

Citizen-science programs are often touted as useful for advancing conservation literacy, scientific knowledge, and increasing scientific-reasoning skills among the public. Guidelines for collaboration among scientists and the public are lacking and the extent to which these citizen-science initiatives change behavior is relatively unstudied. Over two years, we studied 82 participants in a three-day program that included education about non-native invasive plants and collection of data on the occurrence of those plants. Volunteers were given background knowledge about invasive plant ecology and trained on a specific protocol for collecting invasive plant data. They then collected data and later gathered as a group to analyze data and discuss responsible environmental behavior with respect to invasive plants. We tested whether participants without experience in plant identification and with little knowledge of invasive plants increased their knowledge of invasive species ecology, participation increased knowledge of scientific methods, and participation affected behavior. Knowledge of invasive plants increased on average 24%, but participation was insufficient to increase understanding of how scientific research is conducted. Participants reported increased ability to recognize invasive plants and increased awareness of effects of invasive plants on the environment, but this translated into little change in behavior regarding invasive plants. Potential conflicts between scientific goals, educational goals, and the motivation of participants must be considered during program design.     

Behaviour that influences dispersal and connectivity in the small,young larvae of a reef fish

Determining the scale of larval dispersal and population connectivity in demersal fishes is a major challenge in marine ecology. Historically, considerations of larval dispersal have ignored the possible contributions of larval behaviour, but we show here that even young, small larvae have swimming, orientation and vertical positioning capabilities that can strongly influence dispersal outcomes. Using young (11–15 days), relatively poorly developed (8–10 mm), larvae of the pomacentrid damselfish, Amblyglyphidodon curacao (identified using mitochondrial DNA), we studied behaviour relevant to dispersal in the laboratory and sea on windward and leeward sides of Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef. Behaviour varied little with size over the narrow size range examined. Critical speed was 27.5 ± 1.0 cm s⁻¹ (30.9 BL s⁻¹), and in situ speed was 13.6 ± 0.6 cm s⁻¹. Fastest individuals were 44.6 and 25.0 cm s⁻¹, for critical and in situ speeds, respectively. In situ speed was about 50% of critical speed and equalled mean current speed. Unfed larvae swam 172 ± 29 h at 8–10 cm s⁻¹ (52.0 ± 8.6 km), and lost 25% wet weight over that time. Vertical distribution differed between locations: modal depth was 2.5–5.0 and 10.0–12.5 m at leeward and windward sites, respectively. Over 80% of 71 larvae observed in situ had directional swimming trajectories. Larvae avoided NW bearings, with an overall mean SE swimming direction, regardless of the direction to nearest settlement habitat. Larvae made smaller changes between sequential bearings of swimming direction when swimming SE than in other directions, making it more likely they would continue to swim SE. When swimming NW, 62% of turns were left (more than in other directions), which would quickly result in swimming direction changing away from NW. This demonstrates the larvae knew the direction in which they were swimming and provides insight into how they achieved SE swimming direction. Although the cues used for orientation are unclear, some possibilities seemingly can be eliminated. Thus, A. curacao larvae near Lizard Island, on average swam into the average current at a speed equivalent to it, could do this for many hours, and chose different depths in different locations. These behaviours will strongly influence dispersal, and are similar to behaviour of other settlement-stage pomacentrid larvae that are older and larger.