Probabilistic cost‐benefit analysis of disaster risk management in a development context

Limited studies have shown that disaster risk management (DRM) can be cost‐efficient in a development context. Cost–benefit analysis (CBA) is an evaluation tool to analyse economic efficiency. This research introduces quantitative, stochastic CBA frameworks and applies them in case studies of flood and drought risk reduction in India and Pakistan, while also incorporating projected climate change impacts. DRM interventions are shown to be economically efficient, with integrated approaches more cost‐effective and robust than singular interventions. The paper highlights that CBA can be a useful tool if certain issues are considered properly, including: complexities in estimating risk; data dependency of results; negative effects of interventions; and distributional aspects. The design and process of CBA must take into account specific objectives, available information, resources, and the perceptions and needs of stakeholders as transparently as possible. Intervention design and uncertainties should be qualified through dialogue, indicating that process is as important as numerical results.     

Disaster safety nets for developing countries: Extending public—private partnerships

In developed countries, public—private partnerships involving insurance companies and governments often provide security against the human and economic losses of disasters. These partnerships, however, are neither available nor affordable in most highly exposed developing countries. In this paper we examine recent innovations in financial risk management that extend traditional public—private partnerships to include NGOs, international financial institutions and other donors. Importantly, these partnerships provide secure financial arrangements to low-income communities before disasters strike and thus relieve the uncertainty and anxiety of depending on ad hoc post-disaster aid for recovery and even survival. We examine three examples of extended partnerships: the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool; the Andhra Pradesh microinsurance program and an index-based weather derivative for farmers facing drought in Malawi.     

Using design effects from previous cluster surveys to guide sample size calculation in emergency settings

A good estimate of the design effect is critical for calculating the most efficient sample size for cluster surveys. We reviewed the design effects for seven nutrition and health outcomes from nine population-based cluster surveys conducted in emergency settings. Most of the design effects for outcomes in children, and one-half of the design effects for crude mortality, were below two. A reassessment of mortality data from Kosovo and Badghis, Afghanistan revealed that, given the same number of clusters, changing sample size had a relatively small impact on the precision of the estimate of mortality. We concluded that, in most surveys, assuming a design effect of 1.5 for acute malnutrition in children and two or less for crude mortality would produce a more efficient sample size. In addition, enhancing the sample size in cluster surveys without increasing the number of clusters may not result in substantial improvements in precision.     

垂直流人工湿地系统中水流规律的研究

对一种新型的垂直流人工湿地系统的水流特性进行了研究。考察了系统的运行状况及介质中滞留区的分布范围，并且运用化学工程中反应器理论，采用示踪剂试验的方法得到了垂直流人工湿地系统的停留时间分布与污水的实际停留时间。根据水流停留时间分布函数对系统实际液流流态进行了数学模拟，提出二级串联的理想完全混合反应器（CSTR）模型能够较好地模拟垂直流人工湿地系统中水流的流动形态。     

Concentrations and specific loads of UV filters in sewage sludge originating from a monitoring network in Switzerland

Many substances related to human activities end up in wastewater and accumulate in sewage sludge. The present study focuses on the analysis of widely used UV filters 3-(4-methylbenzylidene) camphor (4-MBC), octyl-methoxycinnamate (OMC), octocrylene (OC) and octyl-triazone (OT) in sewage sludge originating from a monitoring network in Switzerland. Mean concentrations in stabilised sludge from 14 wastewater treatment plants were 1780, 110, 4840 and 5510 microg/kg dry matter for 4-MBC, OMC, OC and OT, respectively. Specific loads in sewage sludge show that UV filters originate mainly from private households, but surface runoff and industries may be considered as additional sources. This indicates that besides use for sunscreens and cosmetics UV filters might occur in plastics and other materials and be released to the environment by volatilization or leaching. Differences between the modeled per capita loads of UV filters in sewage sludge and the observed specific loads in sewage sludge are probably due to erroneous figures of production volumes, degradation and sorption during wastewater treatment as well as degradation processes during transport in the sewer or sludge treatment. Thus, further research is needed to elucidate the fate of UV filters after application and release into the environment. Other compounds used as UV filters should be included in future studies.     

Grenzen und Möglichkeiten der Immuntherapie von Tumoren

Immunological treatment of malignant human tumors has so far met with little success. Based on methods and insights obtained by investigation of corresponding animal models, this article attempts to elucidate the reasons for this failure and to suggest ways and means to improve immunotherapeutic approaches to human neoplasms.     

An overdue alignment of risk and resilience? A conceptual contribution to community resilience

A systematic review of literature on community resilience measurement published between 2005 and 2014 revealed that the profound lack of clarity on risk and resilience is one of the main reasons why confusion about terms such as adaptive capacity, resilience, and vulnerability persists, despite the effort spared to operationalise these concepts. Resilience is measured in isolation in some cases, where a shock is perceived to arise external to the system of interest. Problematically, this contradicts the way in which the climate change and disaster communities perceive risk as manifesting itself endogenously as a function of exposure, hazard, and vulnerability. The common conceptualisation of resilience as predominantly positive is problematic as well when, in reality, many undesirable properties of a system are resilient. Consequently, this paper presents an integrative framework that highlights the interactions between risk drivers and coping, adaptive, and transformative capacities, providing an improved conceptual basis for resilience measurement.     

Rückstände von Bis-(Dichlorpropyl)ethern in Fischen aus der Elbe

For the first time it is reported on the residues of chlorinated bis-(dichloropropyl) ethers in fish from the Elbe-river, and their octanol/water partition coefficients.