Climate Sensitivity of Phosphorus Loadings to an Urban Stream

We investigate the sensitivity of phosphorus loading (mass/time) in an urban stream to variations in climate using nondimensional sensitivity, known as elasticity, methods commonly used by economists and hydrologists. Previous analyses have used bivariate elasticity methods to represent the general relationship between nutrient loading and a variable of interest, but such bivariate relations cannot reflect the complex multivariate nonlinear relationships inherent among nutrients, precipitation, temperature, and streamflow. Using fixed‐effect multivariate regression methods, we obtain two phosphorus models (nonparametric and parametric) for an urban stream with high explanatory power that can both estimate phosphorus loads and the elasticity of phosphorus loading to changes in precipitation, temperature, and streamflow. A case study demonstrates total phosphorus loading depends significantly on season, rainfall, combined sewer overflow events, and flow rate, yet the elasticity of total phosphorus to all these factors remains relatively constant throughout the year. The elasticity estimates reported here can be used to examine how nutrient loads may change under future climate conditions.     

Estimating Floodwater Depths from Flood Inundation Maps and Topography

Information on flood inundation extent is important for understanding societal exposure, water storage volumes, flood wave attenuation, future flood hazard, and other variables. A number of organizations now provide flood inundation maps based on satellite remote sensing. These data products can efficiently and accurately provide the areal extent of a flood event, but do not provide floodwater depth, an important attribute for first responders and damage assessment. Here we present a new methodology and a GIS‐based tool, the Floodwater Depth Estimation Tool (FwDET), for estimating floodwater depth based solely on an inundation map and a digital elevation model (DEM). We compare the FwDET results against water depth maps derived from hydraulic simulation of two flood events, a large‐scale event for which we use medium resolution input layer (10 m) and a small‐scale event for which we use a high‐resolution (LiDAR; 1 m) input. Further testing is performed for two inundation maps with a number of challenging features that include a narrow valley, a large reservoir, and an urban setting. The results show FwDET can accurately calculate floodwater depth for diverse flooding scenarios but also leads to considerable bias in locations where the inundation extent does not align well with the DEM. In these locations, manual adjustment or higher spatial resolution input is required.     

On the representation of impact in integrated assessment models of climate change

The paper provides an overview of attempts to represent climate change impact in over twenty integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate change. Focusing on policy optimization IAMs, the paper critically compares modeling solutions, discusses alternatives and outlines important areas for improvement. Perhaps the most crucial area of improvement concerns the dynamic representation of impact, where more credible functional forms need to be developed to express time‐dependent damage as a function of changing socio‐economic circumstances, vulnerability, degree of adaptation, and the speed as well as the absolute level of climate change.     

性能化火灾安全评估应用个案研究

性能化火灾安全评估屉当前火灾科学及其应用研究的热点之一。该方法利用火灾动力学、热化学、安全评估原理学等确定性工程方法，针对各类建筑的结构特点和实际状况，对建筑物的火灾危险进行定性的预测和评估。以某高层建筑的维修工程为例，评估了其维修期间的火灾安全水平。通过对其维修前（满足规范要求）和维修期间（不满足规范要求）两种情况下人员疏散过程的比较，并辅以烟气运动规律的预测，得出了该建筑在施工期间的安全水平。     

LANDSCAPE‐SCALE ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT OF CUMULATIVE IMPACTS TO RIPARIAN ECOSYSTEMS: PAST,PRESENT, AND FUTURE1

ABSTRACT: Analyses of cumulative impacts to riparian systems is an important yet elusive goal. Previous analyses have focused on comparing the number of hectares impacted to the number of hectares restored, without addressing the loss of riparian function or the effect of the spatial distribution of impacts. This paper presents an analysis of the spatial distribution of development‐related impacts to riparian ecosystems, that were authorized under Section 404 of the Clean Water Act. Impacts on habitat structure, contiguity, and landscape context were evaluated using functional indices scaled to regional reference sites. Impact sites were mapped using GIS and analyzed for spatial associations. Positive spatial autocorrelation (i.e. clustering of impact sites) resulted from the piecemeal approach to impact assessment, which failed to prevent cumulative impacts. Numerous small projects in close proximity have resulted in adverse impacts to entire stream reaches or have fragmented the aquatic resources to a point where overall functional capacity is impaired. Additionally, the ecological functions of unaffected areas have been diminished due to their proximity to degraded areas. A proactive approach to managing cumulative impacts is currently being used in Orange County, California as part of a Corps of Engineers sponsored Special Area Management Plan (SAMP). The SAMP process is evaluating the ecological conditions and physical processes of the study watersheds and attempting to plan future development in a manner that will guard against cumulative impacts.     

Economic simulation modeling of reprocessing alternatives for corn masa byproducts

Increasing production of corn masa for tortillas, chips, and related snack foods is resulting in large quantities of organic residuals requiring environmentally sound management. These byproduct streams appear suitable for use as livestock feed material, thus eliminating landfilling costs. Possibilities for developing livestock feed include direct shipping to livestock feeding facilities, blending prior to shipping, extrusion processing, pellet mill processing, and dehydration. To assess the viability of these options for reprocessing masa byproducts as livestock feed materials, an economic model was developed and applied to each of these alternatives. Through a series of simulation runs with this model, it was determined that direct shipping was by far the most inexpensive means of recycling masa processing residuals (10–57 $/Mg). Other alternatives examined in increasing order of costs included blending prior to shipping, extrusion, pellet mill processing (3–15, 5–18, and 4–18 times greater than direct shipping, respectively), while dehydration was clearly cost-prohibitive (33–81 times greater). Bagged feed was slightly more expensive to produce than bulk feed (1.1 times greater), and reprocessing costs increased as delivery distance increased, due to increased labor, equipment, and fuel costs, but decreased as byproduct generation rate increased, due to the development of the economies of scale. Alternately, based on a tipping fee of 50 $/Mg, the total estimated cost to landfill ranged from 65 to 112 $/Mg. Based on this cost analysis, direct shipping and feeding to livestock is the recycling option of choice for masa processing byproducts. Although specific details of process configurations and associated costs will vary, similar results are likely for other high moisture food processing residuals destined for utilization as livestock feed or components thereof.     

Information processing style and decision making

Information processing style, often termed cognitive style, has gained prominence in the organizational behavior literature as researchers use it as a basis for studying decision making behavior, conflict, strategy development, and group processes. However, the many operational definitions and measures of cognitive style have produced inconsistent and confusing results. This study tested the interrelationship among four measures of this construct: the Myers–Briggs Type Indicator, the Group Embedded Figures Test, the Learning Styles Inventory, and the Decision Style Inventory. Measures that appeared to be conceptually linked through their underlying theories were compared. Results indicate that the various measures are not strongly interrelated and appear to be measuring different aspects of information processing and decision making. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Alarming decline of freshwater trigger species in western Mediterranean key biodiversity areas

Theidentification of key biodiversity areas (KBA) was initiated by the International Union for Conservation of Nature in 2004 to overcome taxonomic biases in the selection of important areas for conservation, including freshwater ecosystems. Since then, several KBAs have been identified mainly based on the presence of trigger species (i.e., species that trigger either the vulnerability and or the irreplaceability criterion and thus identify a site as a KBA). However, to our knowledge, many of these KBAs have not been validated. Therefore, classical surveys of the taxa used to identify freshwater KBAs (fishes, molluscs, odonates, and aquatic plants) were conducted in Douro (Iberian Peninsula) and Sebou (Morocco) River basins in the Mediterranean Biodiversity Hotspot. Environmental DNA analyses were undertaken in the Moroccan KBAs. There was a mismatch between the supposed and actual presence of trigger species. None of the trigger species were found in 43% and 50% of all KBAs surveyed in the Douro and Sebou basins, respectively. Shortcomings of freshwater KBA identification relate to flawed or lack of distribution data for trigger species. This situation results from a misleading initial identification of KBAs based on poor (or even inaccurate) ecological information or due to increased human disturbance between initial KBA identification and the present. To improve identification of future freshwater KBAs, we suggest selecting trigger species with a more conservative approach; use of local expert knowledge and digital data (to assess habitat quality, species distribution, and potential threats); consideration of the subcatchment when delineating KBAs boundaries; thoughtful consideration of terrestrial special areas for conservation limits; and periodic field validation.