Pragmatic estimation of a spatio-temporal air quality model with irregular monitoring data

Statistical analyses of health effects of air pollution have increasingly used GIS-based covariates for prediction of ambient air quality in “land use” regression models. More recently these spatial regression models have accounted for spatial correlation structure in combining monitoring data with land use covariates. We present a flexible spatio-temporal modeling framework and pragmatic, multi-step estimation procedure that accommodates essentially arbitrary patterns of missing data with respect to an ideally complete space by time matrix of observations on a network of monitoring sites. The methodology incorporates a model for smooth temporal trends with coefficients varying in space according to Partial Least Squares regressions on a large set of geographic covariates and nonstationary modeling of spatio-temporal residuals from these regressions. This work was developed to provide spatial point predictions of PM_2.5 concentrations for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) using irregular monitoring data derived from the AQS regulatory monitoring network and supplemental short-time scale monitoring campaigns conducted to better predict intra-urban variation in air quality. We demonstrate the interpretation and accuracy of this methodology in modeling data from 2000 through 2006 in six U.S. metropolitan areas and establish a basis for likelihood-based estimation.     

OPTIMAL LONG-TERM SCHEDULING OF STORMWATER DRAINAGE REHABILITATION1

ABSTRACT: A mathematical model is developed to optimally schedule long-term stormwater infrastructure rehabilitation activities. The model is capable of considering multiple rehabilitation projects and is driven by overall cost eensiderations. Rehabilitation activities are scheduled based on perceived reliabilities and future deterioration expected within the specified planning horizon. Future growth within the stormwater drainage basin is incorporated using chance constraints that limit the likelihood that a stormwater discharge exceeds system conveyance capacity. Model structure and development are discussed, and a hypothetical example using a drainage network is presented.     

Erosion Control at Construction Sites: The Science–Policy Gap

/ To test the effectiveness of Michigan's soil erosion control law, 30 construction sites were evaluated in the east-central part of the state. The analytical framework lumped nine best management practices (BMPs) most closely related to the law into three categories: slope stabilization, soil stabilization, and water management. All sites were in the land clearing or foundation/framing stage of construction and were evaluated within 2 days after a rainfall event. Only four of the sites performed above the mean of the scoring scale, with the categorical scoring of BMPs indicating the worst performance for slope stabilization measures. The poor results suggest a failure to integrate scientific knowledge of erosion control with policy. A fundamental problem is the lack of basic site data on soil, topography, and hydrology, resulting in the incorrect application of BMPs, such as staging, filter fences, and berms. The current institutional framework for soil erosion control also provides disincentives to mitigate local erosion problems.     

An evaluation of the association between vehicle type and the source and severity of pedestrian injuries

To evaluate the effect of vehicle type (passenger vehicle vs. light truck vehicle) on crash trajectory and on the consequent source and severity of pedestrian injury, we analyzed data from the Pedestrian Crash Data Study (PCDS), conducted by National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) from 1994 to 1998. While 62% of the adults in PV (passenger vehicle)-related crashes were carried by the vehicle, such pedestrian-vehicle interaction was observed only in 28% of LTV (light truck vehicle)-adult crashes. Being thrown forward or knocked down were the most common (65%) type of pedestrian-vehicle interactions for LTV-adult crashes. For children, 93% of those struck by LTVs and 46% of those struck by PVs were thrown forward or knocked down. For adults, LTVs were more likely than PVs to cause thorax (37% vs. 20%) and abdomen injuries (33% vs. 18%). For children, LTVs were more likely than PVs to cause injuries to the upper extremity (71% vs. 56%) and abdomen (14% vs. 8%). For adults struck by PVs the most common sources of injury were windshield for head injuries (63%), hood surface for thorax (67%), abdomen (58%), spine (30%), and upper extremity (36%) injuries, and bumper for the lower extremity injuries (60%). The leading causes of injury for adult-LTV crashes were ground for head (39%) and upper extremity (37%) injuries, hood edge for thorax (48%) and abdomen (56%) injuries, hood surface for spine injuries (36%), and bumper for lower extremity injuries (45%). For child-PV crashes, ground was the most common source of face (37%) abdomen (83%), spine (43%), and upper extremity injuries (54%). For children hit by LTVs, 52% of face, 67% of abdomen, 100% of spine, and 60% of upper extremity injuries were attributed to ground contacts. Altogether, the major sources of injury were hood surface and windshield for PV-pedestrian crashes and hood surface and hood edge for LTV-pedestrian crashes. Changes in design, such as altering the geometry and stiffness of front-end structures, might be associated with considerable decrease in the frequency and severity of pedestrian injury.     

Selling green: What managers and marketers need to know about consumer environmental attitudes

Research clearly shows that the environment is not going to go away as an issue of public concern. In fact, for many people, the environment is no longer simply an issue—it is a way of life. This is not likely to change. What has changed, however, is today's consumer. Today we are faced with a different type of consumer: one who is more knowledgeable on environmental issues—and more demanding. Environmental messages can be effective in reaching these potential buyers—but only if corporate managers and marketers understand public concerns and learn how to craft their environmental marketing strategies. © 1999 Integrated Marketing Services (IMS) and Environmental Research Associates, a division of IMS, Princeton, New Jersey. Reprinted with permission.     

Evolutionary and Conservation Biology of Cichlid Fishes as Revealed by Faunal Remnants in Northern Lake Victoria

Lake Victoria until recently harbored the world's second richest lacustrine fish assemblage, but it is now experiencing a mass extinction. Here we report on the current status of the endemic cichlid fishes from a preliminary biotic inventory conducted as part of limnological reconnaissance in Kenyan and Ugandan waters during 1989–1992. Sixty-two haplochromine taxa were recovered, half of them new. Some are local endemics, while others are more widely distributed, based on review of earlier collections. Comparison with data from 1982–1984 and 1988 suggests that some shoreline assemblages have been locally stable over the past decade. In addition to littoral rock and vegetation, four kinds of refugia for indigenous fishes are recognized: (1) schools of Rastrineobola , (2) benthic microbial mats in deep water, (3) satellite lakes, (4) the oxycline. Reconnaissance by remote operated vehicle (ROV) documented fish kills due to deoxygenation of the water column, indicating the risk of using the oxycline as a refugium. Several species formerly abundant in Lake Victoria were found only in satellite lakes, revealing the importance of these lakes in the conservation of indigenous species. Recent events in Lake Victoria shed light on mechanisms of speciation and mass extinction, insights relevant to conservation planning for the valuable remnants of the lake's indigenous fauna.     

Species-specific patterns of hyperostosis in marine teleost fishes

The occurrence of swollen or hyperostotic bones in skeletal preparations, preserved museum material or whole fresh specimens of marine teleost fishes was identified in 92 species belonging to 22 families. Patterns of hyperostotic skeletal growth were typically consistent and often species-specific in all individuals larger than a certain size. The taxonomic distribution of hyperostosis in diverse phylogenetic groups suggests that it has arisen independently many times. Selected bones from two species of the family Carangidae, horse-eye jack Caranx latus Agassiz and crevalle jack Caranx hippos (Linnaeus), were examined in detail by light and electron microscopy. Nonhyperostotic bone contained osteoid-producing osteoblasts, resorbing osteoclasts, occasional osteocytes, and a rich vascular network, all characteristics of cellular bone. Thus, these fishes have a spatial juxtaposition of cellular and acellular bone tissues in adjacent and often serially homologous bone sites. The functional significance of hyperostosis is unknown, but it is a predictable manifestation of bone growth and development for the many taxa in which it occurs.     

Mass conservation and atmospheric dynamics in the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)

This paper examines the spatio-temporal patterns of atmospheric carbon dioxide transport predicted by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). Forty-eight hour simulations over northern New England incorporating a simple representation of the diurnal summertime surface carbon dioxide forcing arising from biological activity indicate that, in its native formulation, RAMS exhibits a significant degree of mass non-conservation. Domain-wide rates of non-physical mass gain and mass loss are as large as three percent per day which translates into approximately eleven parts per million per day for carbon dioxide — enough to rapidly dilute the signature of carbon dioxide fluxes arising from biological activity. Analysis shows that this is due to the approximation used by RAMS to compute the Exner function. Substitution of the exact, physically complete equation improves mass conservation by two orders of magnitude. In addition to greatly improving mass conservation, use of the complete Exner function equation has a substantial impact on the spatial pattern of carbon dioxide predicted by the model, yielding predictions differing from a conventional RAMS simulation by as much as forty parts per million. Such differences have important implications both for comparisons of modeled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations to observations and for carbon dioxide inversion studies, which use estimates of atmospheric transport of carbon dioxide in conjunction with measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations to infer the spatio-temporal distribution of surface carbon dioxide fluxes. Furthermore, use of the complete Exner function equation affects the vertical velocity and water mixing ratio fields, causing significant changes in accumulated precipitation over the region.     

Turning at intersections and pedestrian injuries

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate if precrash vehicle movement is associated with the severity of pedestrian injury. METHODS: We used comprehensive information on pedestrian, vehicle, and injury-related characteristics gathered in the Pedestrian Crash Data Study (PCDS), conducted by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) (1994-1998). The odds ratio of severe injuries (injury severity score >/= 15) and crash fatality rate for right- and left-turn collisions at intersection compared with straight vehicle movement were compared using a logistic regression model and taking into consideration the type of vehicle and age of the pedestrians as potential effect modifiers. Later we evaluated the intermediate effect of impact speed on the association by adding it to the logistic regression model. RESULTS: Of 255 collisions eligible for this analysis, the proportion of pedestrian hit during straight movement, right turns, and left turns were 48%, 32%, and 10%, respectively. Sixty percent of the pedestrians in left-turn crashes and 67% of them in right-turn collisions were hit from their left side. For straight movements the pedestrians were equally likely to be struck beginning from the left or right side of the street.After adjustment for pedestrian's age, vehicle movement was a significant predictor of severe injuries (p < 0.0001) and case fatality (p = 0.003). The association between vehicle precrash movement and severe injuries (p = 0.551) and case fatality (p = 0.912) vanished after adjusting for impact speed. This indicated that the observed association was probably the result of the difference in impact speed and not the precrash movement of the vehicle. CONCLUSION: Pedestrian safety interventions that aim at environmental modifications, such as crosswalk repositioning, might be the most efficient means in reducing right- or left-turn collisions at intersection, while pedestrians' behavioral modifications should be the priority for alleviating the magnitude of the collisions that happen in vehicles' straight movements.