Implications of indicator aggregation methods for global change vulnerability reduction efforts

Composite indices are used to assess and prioritize mitigation and adaptation strategies for addressing the impacts of global environmental change. We evaluate different aggregation tools for creating these indices and their potential effects on mitigation and adaptation efforts. We assess the association of each aggregation tool with different types of trade-offs, risk strategies, and the resulting spatial and statistical distribution of their composite scores. Four aggregation tools are investigated (Weighted Linear Combination, WLC; Ordered Weighted Average, OWA; Data Envelopment Analysis, DEA; Compromise Programming, CP) using an example of vulnerability to flooding in the eastern United States. The choice of aggregation tool affects vulnerability outcomes, decision risk strategies, and the prioritization of vulnerability reduction strategies. DEA produces the highest vulnerability scores, representing a risk averse strategy associated with pessimistic outcomes. WLC implies a neutral and fixed risk strategy. CP produces a range of outcomes from neutral (equivalent to the WLC) to pessimistic, depending on its parameters. OWA offers the highest flexibility to adjust the levels of trade-off and risk strategy, producing a range of vulnerability outcomes, from optimistic to pessimistic. The units of analysis, when prioritized across the different aggregation tools, are more consistent for the top ranked units. However, the differences in rank become substantial as the selection threshold score decreases. To obtain better informed vulnerability reduction strategies, we recommend to (i) address how trade-off and decision risk are embedded in the aggregation tool chosen, and (ii) evaluate their effect in the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation strategies being considered.     

Ingredients in sustainably managing water in semi-arid environments

The lessons learned from CALFED indicate that ingredients important in the long-term resolution of water management issues may not result in short-term “solutions”. The value of this special issue lies in its identification of ingredients that stimulate re-framing of issues, adapting to new knowledge and innovative decisions. But sustainable water management also requires the political patience to sustain those processes as a means of perpetuating the long-term decision-making necessary to anticipate and/or respond to an ever-changing environment.     

Runoff Storage Potential of Drained Upland Depressions on the Des Moines Lobe of Iowa

We present estimates of the volumetric storage capacities of currently drained upland depressions and catchment depressional specific storage and runoff storage indices for the Des Moines Lobe of Iowa (DML‐IA) subregion of the Prairie Pothole Region of North America. Storage capacities were determined using hydrologically enforced Light Detection and Ranging‐derived digital elevation models, and a unique geoprocessing algorithm. Depressional specific storage was estimated for each 12‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC12) watershed in the region from total catchment‐specific depressional storage volume and catchment area. Runoff storage indices were calculated using catchment depressional specific storage values and estimates of the amount of rainfall likely to fall within each watershed during sub‐annual and 1‐, 2‐, 5‐, and 10‐year 24‐h events. The 173,171 identified drained depressions in the DML‐IA can store up to 903.5 Mm³ of runoff. Most of this capacity is in depressions located in the north of the region. Specific storage varies from nearly 109 mm in the younger landscapes to <10 mm in older more eroded areas. For 95% of the HUC12 watersheds comprising the region, depressional storage will likely be exhausted by rainfall‐derived runoff in excess of a 1‐year 24‐h event. Rainfall amounts greater than a 5‐year 24‐h event will exceed all available depressional storage. Therefore, the capacity of drained depressions in the DML‐IA to mitigate flooding resulting from infrequent, but large, storm events is limited.     

Evaluation of noise environments during daily activities of university students

Noise conditions specifically in areas inside university facilities and its impact on the quality of life of university students are topics that have received little attention. This paper presents a study of the noise conditions in which university students of various institutions in Madrid, Spain, carry out their daily studies. A representative number of measurements was carried out using noise dosemeters and dataloggers in order to evaluate the levels of noise, noise dose and exposure to noise during school periods and extracurricular activities. The results were compared with the recommendations given by current environmental noise regulations. This paper was complemented with a survey to get to know how students perceive the exposure to noise in university environments.     

Seat strength in rear body block tests

Purpose: This study collected and analyzed available testing of motor vehicle seat strength in rearward loading by a body block simulating the torso of an occupant. The data were grouped by single recliner, dual recliner, and all belts to seat (ABTS) seats.

Methods: The strength of seats to rearward loading has been evaluated with body block testing from 1964 to 2008. The database of available tests includes 217 single recliner, 65 dual recliner, and 18 ABTS seats. The trends in seat strength were determined by linear regression and differences between seat types were evaluated by Student's t-test. The average peak moment and force supported by the seat was determined by decade of vehicle model year (MY).

Results: Single recliner seats were used in motor vehicles in the 1960s to 1970s. The average strength was 918 ± 224 Nm (n = 26) in the 1960s and 1,069 ± 293 Nm (n = 65) in the 1980s. There has been a gradual increase in strength over time. Dual recliner seats started to phase into vehicles in the late 1980s. By the 2000s, the average strength of single recliner seats increased to 1,501 ± 335 Nm (n = 14) and dual recliner seats to 2,302 ± 699 Nm (n = 26). Dual recliner seats are significantly stronger than single recliner seats for each decade of comparison (P < .001). The average strength of ABTS seats was 4,395 ± 1,185 in-lb for 1989–2004 MY seats (n = 18). ABTS seats are significantly stronger than single or dual recliner seats (P < .001). The trend in ABTS strength is decreasing with time and converging toward that of dual recliner seats.

Conclusions: Body block testing is an quantitative means of evaluating the strength of seats for occupant loading in rear impacts. There has been an increase in conventional seat strength over the past 50 years. By the 2000s, most seats are 1,700–3,400 Nm moment strength. However, the safety of a seat is more complex than its strength and depends on many other factors.     

Human Health Effects of Environmental Pollutants: New Insights

While a variety of effects of toxic chemicals are known in animals exposed both in the laboratory and in situ, it has proven more difficult to obtain definitive information relating harm to humans resulting from environmental contamination. Until quite recently it has been generally assumed that cancer was the human disease of greatest importance. In fact, the majority of regulations of exposure to toxic chemicals by most governments are designed on the basis of presumed cancer risk. The evidence that hazardous chemicals can cause cancer is strong, and concern of cancer risks is appropriate. However, recent evidence has triggered a reevaluation of the assumption that cancer is the sole disease of concern. New evidence has emerged suggesting that exposure to hazardous chemicals may lead to a variety of non-cancer endpoints, and that these effects may occur at low concentrations. Of particular concern is evidence for irreversible effects on the embryo and very young children which influence intelligence, attention span, sexual development and immune function. Some of these actions appear to be direct effects on the brain and other organ systems while others are mediated via disruption of endocrine systems. While these effects are subtle and difficult to quantify, the aggregated evidence is sufficiently compelling as to necessitate reevaluation of those health outcomes upon which regulations are based.     

On the representation of impact in integrated assessment models of climate change

The paper provides an overview of attempts to represent climate change impact in over twenty integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate change. Focusing on policy optimization IAMs, the paper critically compares modeling solutions, discusses alternatives and outlines important areas for improvement. Perhaps the most crucial area of improvement concerns the dynamic representation of impact, where more credible functional forms need to be developed to express time‐dependent damage as a function of changing socio‐economic circumstances, vulnerability, degree of adaptation, and the speed as well as the absolute level of climate change.     

Learning from Tabasco’s floods by applying MORT

Natural disasters are increasing alarmingly worldwide in recent years. They have killed millions of people, and adversely affected the life of at least one billion people. Given this, natural disasters present a great challenge to society today concerning how they are to be mitigated so as to produce an acceptable risk is a question which has come to the fore in dramatic ways recently. In 2007, the state of Tabasco, Mexico, was flooded and it is believed that al least one million people were left homeless. The paper addresses the following question: what can be learnt from flood disasters? The paper presents some preliminary results of the analysis of the Tabasco’s flooding by applying the Management Oversight Risk Tree (MORT). The MORT technique may be regarded as a structured checklist in the form of a complex ‘fault-tree’ model that is intended to ensure that all aspects of an organization’s management are looked into when assessing the possible causes of an incident. One of the key conclusions of the present analysis is that the approach to decision making in relation ‘flood management’ at the time of the disaster has not been based explicitly on ‘flood risk assessment’. It is hoped that by conducting such analysis lessons can be learnt so that the impact of natural disasters such as the Tabasco’s flooding can be mitigated in the future.     

Potential moderating influence of career growth opportunities on careerist orientation and work attitudes: evidence of the protean career era in Singapore

The emerging transactional or protean employment contract appears to have precipitated the development of a careerist orientation on the part of employees. This study examined the generalizability of the construct in a collectivist culture and the potential moderating influence of career growth opportunities on the careerist orientation–work attitude relationships. The results tend to support the generalizability of careerist orientation across cultures and, importantly, showed an absence of a moderating influence for career growth opportunities, suggesting that organizations cannot effectively counter the negative effects of careerist orientation on work attitudes. Limitations of the study, directions for future research, and implication of the findings for organizational dependence on employees as a competitive resource are discussed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Accumulation of organochlorine insecticides in the blood of the general population of Nigeria

Gas Chromatographic determination of blood levels of organochlorine pesticides in people of Southern Nigeria is described. Among the compounds detected and quantified were the HCH‐isomers, DDT and its metabolites and dieldrin, the major pollutants being DDT, DDE and the HCH‐isomers. Delta‐HCH, HCB and Endrin were also detected in a few samples. Total DDT (DDT + DDE + DDD) ranged from 0.04–7.24 ppm, total HCH (alpha + beta + gamma) 0.08–5.64 ppm, and dieldrin 0.03–0.28 ppm.