中国新克强指数的构建与实证分析

随着中国经济进入新常态,英国《经济学人》杂志构建的克强指数已无法反映中国经济的全貌,如何客观地反映中国经济的真实状况成为一个迫切需要解决的现实问题。为更好地测度中国经济运行的真实状况,本文根据李克强总理提出的"未来会更加关注就业、居民收入和生态环境的持续改善"的愿景,在原有克强指数的基础上,增加年末就业人员数、农村居民家庭人均纯收入、城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入等就业和收入方面的指标,使用中国1995—2015年的相关数据和层次分析法构建了克强指数的修订版本即新克强指数,并将新克强指数与GDP增长率、克强指数进行了比较,发现新克强指数在反映中国经济波动和经济整体运行状态上有更为优良的性质。与GDP增长率相比,新克强指数克服了服务业比重提高带来的熨平效应,进而灵敏地反映中国经济波动情况,并对异常事件更加具有敏感性。相对于克强指数而言,新克强指数破除了因中国在第二产业上存在失衡性发展所带来的经济波动的杠杆效应,降低了经济增长中的虚假成分,从而与中国经济运行的整体关联度更为密切。此外,相对于克强指数而言,新克强指数在反映经济景气方面有着较好的时效性与关联性。采用时差相关分析法对新克强指数与宏观经济指标之间的关系进行分析,发现新克强指数在反映第一产业增加值、第三产业增加值、最终消费支出、资本形成总额、对外贸易、通货膨胀等方面具有优势。研究表明:新克强指数是更适宜测度中国经济的多元评价指标,为测度中国经济运行的真实状况提供了科学的参考依据。     

高铁网络可达性测度及经济潜力分析——以安徽省为例

高速铁路的开通给沿线城市的建设带来了重大影响。基于可达性测度以及修正的经济潜力模型,利用GIS对安徽省高铁可达性以及经济潜力进行深入分析。研究表明:(1)高铁开通后安徽省可达性显著提高,但总体格局保持不变,呈现出以合肥为中心,淮南、芜湖等地为副中心的"多核心"模式。池州、铜陵两城市可达性上升幅度最大,黄山紧随其后,芜湖、滁州变化最小。高铁开通后,滁州可达性排名下降5名,下降幅度最大,合肥、淮南、黄山最为稳定,其他城市均有小幅变化。(2)可达性的提升对城市经济潜力造成了一定影响,总体呈现出以合肥为中心的外围扩展模式。池州、铜陵经济潜力增长最为显著,黄山位列第3,可达性的提升直接影响了池州、铜陵、黄山三市的经济发展。高铁开通后,合肥、芜湖经济潜力排名始终位于前二,传统经济中心地位不变。马鞍山排名上升4名,幅度最大,池州、黄山两市处于末端,经济潜力仍然较为薄弱。(3)高铁开通后,时空收敛效应明显,可达性的提升令城市经济潜力增长显著,但受多方面因素影响,可达性与经济潜力呈现不完全契合关系。     

围垦后南汇东滩海三棱藨草的空间分布及其影响因子研究

2015年9月~10月期间对2012年底围垦后南汇嘴区域的海三棱藨草(Scirpus mariqueter)湿地系统进行了调研,运用主成分分析、典范对应分析(canonical correspondence analysis,CCA)方法,基于101个样地土壤的有机碳、总磷、总氮、硝酸盐氮、亚硝酸盐氮、氨氮、正磷酸盐、pH、含水率、粒径、盐度、滩涂高程等12个环境因子数据,探讨了围垦后海三棱藨草空间分布的关键影响因子。结果表明:海三棱藨草的分布与滩涂高程具有显著正相关(P0.05),海三棱藨草群落主要分布在南汇滩涂2.5~3.4 m高程范围内;海三棱藨草的密度、盖度与盐度呈显著正相关(P0.05)。结论认为滩涂高程和土壤盐度是影响海三棱藨草分布的主要环境因子。未来需要结合围垦后的水动力变化过程数值模拟,对海三棱藨草生态系统高时空分辨率的响应过程及机制进行研究,以进一步确立海三棱藨草对围垦工程响应的关键阈值。研究对围垦工程后的滨海湿地植被恢复及滩涂生态修复具有参考意义。     

三维土工网防护边坡整体稳定性分析

针对三维土工网护坡技术的前期阶段不断出现的边坡整体失稳现象,基于三维土工网护坡技术的作用机理,采用强度系数折减法,利用ABAQUS建立土工网防护边坡的三维有限元模型,以坡肩特征点的位移突变情况作为边坡失稳判断的标准,分别计算和比较了不同降雨条件下土工网防护边坡和不含土工网边坡的安全系数,探究了边坡失稳时坡体内部塑性区的发展情况和位移分布规律,并利用室内边坡抬升破坏试验分析比较了两种边坡的破坏抬升角度和最终破坏情况,与数值模拟分析结果进行比较。结果表明:土工三维网在一定程度上可以提高边坡的整体稳定性,但作用影响较小;降雨强度的大小对边坡稳定性的影响较为明显;在土工网和铆钉共同作用下,土工网和其覆盖的土体共同作用,呈现较好的整体性。     

Effect of chlorination and ultraviolet disinfection on tetA-mediated tetracycline resistance of Escherichia coli

Antibiotic-resistant bacteria are an emerging threat to public health during drinking water consumption and reclaimed water reuse. Several studies have shown that the proportions of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in waters may increase when exposed to low doses of UV light or chlorine. In this study, inactivation of tetracycline-resistant Escherichia coli and antibiotic-sensitive E. coli by UV disinfection and chlorination was compared to determine the tolerance of tetracycline-resistant E. coli to UV light and chlorine, and tetracycline resistance of a tetracycline-resistant E. coli population was studied under different doses of the disinfectants. Our results showed that relative to antibiotic-sensitive E. coli, tetracycline-resistant E. coli had the same tolerance to UV light and a potentially higher tolerance to chlorination. The mortality frequency distributions of tetracycline-resistant E. coli exposed to tetracycline were shifted by both chlorination and UV disinfection. When compared to the hemi-inhibitory concentrations (IC₅₀) of tetracycline-resistant E. coli with no exposure to UV or chlorination, the IC₅₀ of tetracycline-resistant E. coli treated with tetracycline was 40% lower when inactivation by UV light or chlorination reached 3-log but was 1.18 times greater when inactivation by chlorination reached 4.3-log. Chlorination applied to drinking water or reclaimed water treatment may increase the risk of selection for highly tetracycline-resistant E. coli.     

Cytotoxicity and DNA damage of five organophosphorus pesticides mediated by oxidative stress in PC12 cells and protection by vitamin E

Previous studies have demonstrated that pesticides could induce cytotoxicity and genotoxicity in vivo and in vitro, and that oxidative stress may be an important factor involved. However, investigations comparing the capability of different organophosphorous (OP) compounds to induce cytotoxicity, genotoxicity and oxidative stress are limited. Hence, the aim of this paper was to access the cytotoxic and genotoxic effects of five OPs or metabolites, Acephate (ACE), Methamidophos (MET), Chloramidophos (CHL), Malathion (MAT) and Malaoxon (MAO), and to clarify the role of oxidative stress, using PC12 cells. The results demonstrated that MET, MAT and MAO caused significant inhibition of cell viability and increased DNA damage in PC12 cells at 40 mg L^?1. MAO was more toxic than the other OPs. ACE, MET, MAT and MAO increased the levels of intracellular reactive oxygen species (ROS) and malondialdehyde (MDA), and decreased the activity of superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT) and glutathione (GSH) at 20 mg L^?1 and 40 mg L^?1 to different degrees. Pre-treatment with vitamin E(600 μM)caused a significant attenuation in the cytotoxic and genotoxic effect; pre-treatment reversed subsequent OP-induced elevation of peroxidation products and the decline of anti-oxidant enzyme activities. These results indicate that oxidative damage is likely to be an initiating event that contributes to the OP-induced cytotoxicity.     

添加氮损失抑制剂对蓝藻泥堆肥质量的影响

对脱水蓝藻进行大型生产性堆肥实验。研究堆肥过程中,氮损失抑制剂过磷酸钙的添加对堆肥物料各类理化性质的影响。研究结果表明,过磷酸钙加入的处理组与未加过磷酸钙的对照组堆制37 d后堆肥物料均可腐熟,且堆肥肥效均符合NY525-2002的相关要求。添加过磷酸钙处理组有机质含量为490 g/kg,全N、全P和全K含量分别为20.75、10.02和11.32 g/kg,总养分含量达到9.77%,堆肥品质明显优于对照处理。同时,在微生物的作用下,对照组中微囊藻毒素MC-RR与微囊藻毒素MC-LR去除率分别达到89.8%与78.3%。值得一提的是,添加过磷酸钙后,MC-RR和MC-LR的去除率得到进一步提高,分别达到了92.96%和100%,较好地保证了蓝藻堆肥农用的安全性,为脱水蓝藻好氧堆肥化提供了可行性依据。     

燃煤锅炉机组电改袋工程成功案例分析

以宝钢电厂3#机组电改全袋工程为例,论述了该成功工程的特点,介绍了袋式除尘器及滤料的比选过程、结构型式和设计参数,总结了除尘系统所具有的技术特色和投运后所取得的效果,该案例对袋式除尘器在电站锅炉的推广应用具有参考意义。     

氯消毒新工艺对大肠杆菌灭活作用的研究

研究了短时游离氯后转氯胺的联合消毒方法对大肠杆菌的灭活作用,并对其协同作用以及pH值和温度对协同作用的影响进行了探讨。结果表明：pH值在6．5～8范围内,温度不超过30℃时,短时游离氯后转氯胺的消毒方法对大肠杆菌的灭活具有协同作用,且随pH值的降低而加强,在低温下该方法的协同效果更加明显。     

Persistence of repeated triadimefon application and its impact on soil microbial functional diversity

The effects of repeated applications of the fungicide triadimefon in agricultural soil on the microbial functional diversity of the soil and on the persistence of the fungicide in the soil were investigated under laboratory conditions. The degradation half-lives of triadimefon at the recommended dosage, simulated by a first-order kinetic model, were 23.90, 22.95, and 21.52 days for the first, second, and third applications, respectively. Throughout this study, no significant inhibition of the Shannon-Wiener index (H') was observed. However, the Simpson index (1/D) and the McIntosh index (U) were obviously reduced (p ≤ 0.05) during the initial 3 days after the first triadimefon application and thereafter, gradually recovered to or exceeded the level of the control soil. A similar trend in variation but with a faster recovery in the 1/D and U was observed after the second and third triadimefon applications, respectively. Taken together, the above results indicate that the repeated application of triadimefon enhanced the degradation rate of the fungicide and the recovery rate of the soil microbial functional diversity. It is concluded that repeated triadimefon applications in soil have a transient or temporary inhibitory effect on soil microbial communities.