UV-B radiation is a driving factor for the chemistry of the polluted boundary layer. It is involved in the formation of radicals and consequently influences the formation and concentration of photo-oxidants. The 3-D mesoscale photochemical Metphomod model was employed to study the effect of changes in UV-B radiation on the concentration of photo-oxidants in the boundary layer over the Swiss Plateau. The model chemistry is based on the RACM mechanism and a two-stream approximation of radiative transfer. A summer (July) and a late winter (February) episode were simulated. All simulations were replicated with relatively large changes in the prescribed total ozone. The results for an increase in UV-B radiation show increases in PAN, HNO3, and ozone at noon in NOx-rich areas and a decrease in NOx. In NOx-poor areas in summer the effect on ozone is weak and has a negative sign, the main effect being an increase in H2O2. The spatial variability of NOx concentrations in the Swiss Plateau in the summer case is such that the effect of increased UV-B radiation on ozone is spatially variable. The effect on the ozone production rate in summer is strongest positive at the surface in the NOx-rich regions in the morning and strongest negative at some altitude above ground in NOx-poor regions in the early afternoon. In the winter episode, NOx-rich conditions are found almost everywhere on the Swiss Plateau, the effect of increased UV-B radiation on the ozone production rate is positive all day long and is largest at 300 m above ground at noon. In this case, in contrast to the summer case, the increase in ozone is carried over to the next day. The model results for ozone are in good agreement with results from a case study and a time series analysis of surface ozone measurements. We estimate the effect of day-to-day changes in total ozone on surface ozone peaks to range from 4 to 6 ppb at most. 相似文献
In Lake Erhai, water quality was affected by the basin nutrient discharge and climate change. To analyze the relationships between the water quality (total nitrogen [TN], total phosphorus [TP], chemical oxygen demand [CODmn], ammonia [NH4], and trophic level index [TLI]) and basin nutrient discharge (TNd, TPd, and CODd) combined with climate changes (air temperature [AT], precipitation [pre], wind speed [wind], and sunshine hours [SHs]), the generalized additive model (GAM) was employed to explore the nonlinear relationships with their interactions using data sets ranging from 1999 to 2012. Our findings revealed that the water quality in Lake Erhai deteriorated in the early twentieth century, and the basin discharge and AT appeared significant (p?<?0.05) rising trends in a long time, while the precipitation decreased significantly (p?<?0.05) in the study period. Single-factor GAM results indicated that the basin nutrient discharge was the main explanatory factor for the variations of TN and TP in lake, while precipitation was the main driver for CODmn and NH4. Besides, the water quality displayed nonlinear responses to the basin discharge, but all of the water quality variables went up as the emission levels increased in the lower range. The results showed that the water quality deteriorated in the lower rainfall, and TN rose as the AT increases, while TP was elevated accompanied by the ascending SHs there. The GAM interaction results suggested that the increase of AT and TPd had a promoting effect on TP in Lake Erhai. Stricter nutrient management measures should be implemented when the impacts of climate change are taken into account.
The gas pipeline network is an essential infrastructure for a smart city. It provides a much-needed energy source; however, it poses a significant risk to the community. Effective risk management assists in maintaining the operational safety of the network. The risk management of the network requires reliable dynamic failure probability analysis. This paper proposes a methodology of condition monitoring and dynamic failure probability analysis of urban gas pipeline network. The methodology begins with identifying key design and operational factors responsible for pipeline failure. Subsequently, a causation-based failure model is developed as the Bowtie model. The Bowtie model is transformed into a Bayesian network, which is analyzed using operational data. The key contributory factors of accident causation are monitored. The monitored data is used to analyze the updated failure probability of the network. The gas pipeline network's dynamic failure probability is combined with the potential consequences to assess the risk. The application of the approach is demonstrated in a section of the urban gas pipeline. 相似文献
Reservoirs have been served as the major source of drinking water for dozens of years. The water quality safety of large and medium reservoirs increasingly becomes the focus of public concern. Field test has proved that water-lifting and aeration system (WLAS) is a piece of effective equipment for in situ control and improvement of water quality. However, its intrinsic bioremediation mechanism, especially for nitrogen removal, still lacks in-depth investigation. Hence, the dynamic changes in water quality parameters, carbon source metabolism, species compositions and co-occurrence patterns of microbial communities were systematically studied in Jinpen Reservoir within a whole WLAS running cycle. The WLAS operation could efficiently reduce organic carbon (19.77%), nitrogen (21.55%) and phosphorus (65.60%), respectively. Biolog analysis revealed that the microbial metabolic capacities were enhanced via WLAS operation, especially in bottom water. High-throughput sequencing demonstrated that WLAS operation altered the diversity and distributions of microbial communities in the source water. The most dominant genus accountable for aerobic denitrification was identified as Dechloromonas. Furthermore, network analysis revealed that microorganisms interacted more closely through WLAS operation. Oxidation-reduction potential (ORP) and total nitrogen (TN) were regarded as the two main physicochemical parameters influencing microbial community structures, as confirmed by redundancy analysis (RDA) and Mantel test. Overall, the results will provide a scientific basis and an effective way for strengthening the in-situ bioremediation of micro-polluted source water. 相似文献