基于改进IPAT模型的中国未来碳排放预测

在"碳排放量与能源消费成正比"假设的基础上,对中国1987—2010年的历年碳排放量和人均碳排放量进行了分区域研究与计算.经数据分析,发现以2002年为界线,前后两个时期中国碳排放变化缺乏内在的连贯性,2002年以前的碳排放曲线无法表征未来年份碳排放趋势.在此发现的基础上,以2002—2010年碳排放数据为基础,引入表征科技进步的变量,对IPAT模型进行改进,进而对2010—2050年中国碳排放进行了预测和分析.结果表明:中国排放峰值发生在2030年,全国碳排放总量将达到3684.1636Gg,人均碳排放为2.6476t;在2030年之前中国碳排放量将以平均每年2.89%的速度持续增加.2030—2050年碳排放量将以每年2.09%的速度减少,至2050年,全国碳排放量为2366.4522Gg,人均碳排放为1.8521t.本研究为中国未来碳排放政策的制定提供了方法与数据支持.     

黄土高原自然植被恢复对土壤质量的影响

本文从土壤物理、化学和生物因子等方面综合考虑,运用土壤质量综合指数模型,计算土壤质量综合指数。定量化评价黄土高原自然植被恢复对土壤质量的影响,期望为该区植被恢复对土壤质量的影响提供理论指导,促进当地生态环境重建工作的进展。研究结果表明:1)与农田相比,植被恢复对土壤容重、水稳性团聚体、pH、电导、有机碳、全氮和微生物量碳、氮影响显著,对含水量、无机碳含量影响居中,对土壤粘粒、砂粒含量、全磷影响不显著。2)与农田相比,植被恢复后,土壤质量综合指数(SQI)值在0~10 cm和10~20 cm均有较大幅度的提高,0~10 cm比10~20 cm增幅更大。3)当地农田土壤质量处于低(V)水平,草地处于较低(Ⅳ)水平,灌木林和混交林处于中等(Ⅲ)水平,山杨和辽东栎林处于较高(Ⅱ)水平。草地恢复对于提高土壤质量的效果较差,林地恢复对提高土壤质量的效果相对最佳。     

山西中条山白皮松和华山松径向生长对气候变化的响应及气候意义

树木年轮与气候要素关系的分析不仅是过去几百年高分辨率气候重建的基础,也可为农业生产和森林抚育提供科学参考。本文首次在山西中条山开展树轮—气候响应分析研究,建立了白皮松和华山松的树轮宽度年表。相关分析发现,白皮松和华山松对气候要素的响应既有相同又有不同之处。二者均受当年生长季5、6月份气候要素(温度、降水、相对湿度)影响。白皮松主要受5、6月气温和5月降水量的影响,而华山松主要受5月降水量、6月气温和7月最低气温的影响。基于白皮松和华山松建立的综合年表则主要受5.7月平均最高气温的影响,相关系数为0.6(p0.01),说明多树种混合研制的年表包含的气候信号更强。该综合年表指示的历史时期冷暖气候波动与研究区周边历史时期冷暖变化无论在年际尺度还是十年尺度上都显著相关。周期分析和空间相关分析表明,研究区温度变化受1—3月赤道东太平洋海温变化(ENSO)的调控。     

延安治沟造地是黄土高原淤地坝建设的继承与发展

论文简要介绍了上世纪50年代以来黄土高原淤地坝建设的艰辛历史,以及近年来延安市治沟造地的进展;认为治沟造地在继承几十年来淤地坝建设的成功模式基础上,改坝库天然淤沙为人工填土,快速造地,变荒沟为良田,大方向是正确的;但要尊重科学,认真重视黄土的湿陷性问题。建议治沟造地不要急于求成,坝库填土湿陷稳定后,方可修建永久性排灌沟渠和硬化田间道路,之前可修建临时性土质沟渠和道路。     

Solid/solution Cu fractionations/speciation of a Cu contaminated soil after pilot-scale electrokinetic remediation and their relationships with soil microbial and enzyme activities

The aim of this study was to investigate the detailed metal speciation/fractionations of a Cu contaminated soil before and after electrokinetic remediation as well as their relationships with the soil microbial and enzyme activities. Significant changes in the exchangeable and adsorbed-Cu fractionations occurred after electrokinetic treatment, while labile soil Cu in the solution had a tendency to decrease from the anode to the cathode, and the soil free Cu²⁺ ions were mainly accumulated in the sections close to the cathode. The results of regression analyses revealed that both the soil Cu speciation in solution phase and the Cu fractionations in solid phase could play important roles in the changes of the soil microbial and enzyme activities. Our findings suggest that the bioavailability of soil heavy metals and their ecotoxicological effects on the soil biota before and after electroremediation can be better understood in terms of their chemical speciation and fractionations.     

河套平原湖泊陈普海子沉积物粒度与元素分析

通过对河套地区不同类型沉积物进行粒度和元素分析，根据区域陈普海子沉积岩芯的年代和环境代用指标结果，借助于判别分析技术，结合历史文献资料，揭示区域近300a来两个典型时段的环境变化.结果表明，约1850a受黄河河道变迁引起的洪水活动影响，陈普海子岩芯55~50cm（CP1）沉积物表现为灰黄色黏土层，其粒度参数、分布曲线与黄河岸边缓流沉积物相似，两者的中值粒径和众数数值分别为3.8，7.7μm和4.4，5.0μm，元素及其比值K/Ti、Al/Ti和K/Sr（数值分别为7.1、21.5、102.7和6.2、20.7、87.8）的得分散点分布在判别得分散点图的同一区域，与其它类型沉积物的分布区域明显分离，元素比值K/Ti、Al/Ti和K/Sr可作为湖泊沉积指示洪水活动的环境代用指标；自1995年以来，由于区域人类活动，沙荒土地大规模开垦，致使风沙活动增强，岩芯15cm以上（CP2）沉积物粒度参数、分布曲线与风积物相似，两者的中值粒径和众数数值分别为20.1，19.6 μm和41.6，45.7 μm，元素的得分散点分布在判别得分散点图的同一区域，研究结果与文献记录具有较好的一致性.     

Impact of different nitrogen emission sources on tree physiology as assessed by a triple stable isotope approach

The importance that nitrogen (N) deposition has in driving the carbon (C) sequestration of forests has recently been investigated using both experimental and modeling approaches. Whether increased N deposition has positive or negative effects on such ecosystems depends on the status of the N and the duration of the deposition. By combining δ¹³C, δ¹⁸O, δ¹⁵N and dendrochronological approaches, we analyzed the impact of two different sources of NO_x emissions on two tree species, namely: a broadleaved species (Quercus cerris) that was located close to an oil refinery in Southern Italy, and a coniferous species (Picea abies) located close to a freeway in Switzerland. Variations in the c_i/c_a ratio and the distinction between stomatal and photosynthetic responses to NO_x emissions in trees were assessed using a conceptual model, which combines δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O. δ¹⁵N in leaves, needles and tree rings was found to be a bioindicator of N input from anthropogenic emissions, especially at the oil refinery site. We observed that N fertilization had a stimulatory effect on tree growth near the oil refinery, while the opposite effect was found for trees at the freeway site. Changes in the c_i/c_a ratio were mostly related to variations in δ¹³C at the freeway site and, thus, were driven by photosynthesis. At the oil refinery site they were mainly related to stomatal conductance, as assessed using δ¹⁸O. This study demonstrates that a single method approach does not always provide a complete picture of which physiological traits are more affected by N emissions. The triple isotope approach combined with dendrochronological analyses proved to be a very promising tool for monitoring the ecophysiological responses of trees to long-term N deposition.     

黄石市大气PM2.5中水溶性离子浓度特征及来源分析

为研究黄石市大气PM_2.5中水溶性离子组成、质量浓度变化特征及来源,于2012年3月-2013年2月在湖北省黄石市利用MiniVol颗粒物采样器采集PM_2.5样品,用离子色谱分析了9种水溶性离子（NH₄+、Ca2+、Mg2+、Na+、K+、Cl-、NO₃-、SO₄2-、F-）的质量浓度,并采用PMF（正定矩阵因子分析法）模型讨论了不同离子的来源.结果表明:观测期间黄石市大气PM_2.5中ρ（总水溶性离子）的年均值为（61.5±26.8）μg/m3,占ρ（PM_2.5）的63.9%,各离子质量浓度的高低顺序依次为ρ（SO₄2-）> ρ（NO₃-）> ρ（NH₄+）> ρ（Na+）> ρ（Cl-）> ρ（Ca2+）> ρ（K+）> ρ（F-）> ρ（Mg2+）.二次无机离子SNA（为SO₄2-、NO₃-和NH₄+的统称）是水溶性离子的主要成分,占全部所测水溶性离子的74.4%.ρ（NO₃-）/ρ（SO₄2-）范围为0.12~1.29,平均值为0.53±0.30,说明全年观测点附近主要以固定源污染为主.4个季节的SOR（硫氧化率）和NOR（氮氧化率）均大于0.10,说明黄石市PM_2.5中的SO₄2-和NO₃-主要是经二次转化形成的.阴、阳离子相关性研究发现,4个季节阴、阳离子总体相关性（R2为0.98）较好,并且全年PM_2.5组分偏酸性.通过PMF模型源解析发现,黄石市大气PM_2.5中水溶性离子主要来源于燃烧源、二次转化源和土壤/矿物扬尘源.研究显示,黄石市大气PM_2.5中主要水溶性离子成分是SNA,燃烧、二次转化和土壤/矿物扬尘是其主要来源.      

我国东北地区土壤铀同位素水平、分布和来源

系统采集了我国东北地区132个表层土壤样品,采用混合酸全溶分解样品,使用UTEVA萃取色谱分离样品溶液中的铀,应用串联四极杆电感耦合等离子体质谱（ICP-MS/MS）测量样品溶液中²³⁸U、²³⁵U、²³⁴U,获得了研究区域表层土壤中3种铀同位素浓度水平和分布.首次大范围报道该地区表土中²³⁴U水平,发现在部分土壤中²³⁴U发生明显的同位素分馏.²³⁵U/²³⁸U原子比值分布显示区域大气核武器试验的放射性颗粒物在山脉迎风坡有明显沉积,导致大兴安岭等山脉的西侧²³⁵U/²³⁸U原子比值较高.但该区域铀同位素整体上处于环境本底水平,受人类核活动影响较小.来源分析表明研究区域表土中铀主要来源于成土母岩的岩石风化以及人类的工业和农业活动.     

Impact of biomass burning on urban air quality estimated by organic tracers: Guangzhou and Beijing as cases

The impacts of biomass burning have not been adequately studied in China. In this work, chemical compositions of volatile organic compounds and particulate organic matters were measured in August 2005 in Beijing and in October 2004 in Guangzhou city. The performance of several possible tracers for biomass burning is compared by using acetonitrile as a reference compound. The correlations between the possible tracers and acetonitrile show that the use of K⁺ as a tracer could result in bias because of the existence of other K⁺ sources in urban areas, while chloromethane is not reliable due to its wide use as industrial chemical. The impact of biomass burning on air quality is estimated using acetonitrile and levoglucosan as tracers. The results show that the impact of biomass burning is ubiquitous in both suburban and urban Guangzhou, and the frequencies of air pollution episodes significantly influenced by biomass burning were 100% for Xinken and 58% for downtown Guangzhou city. Fortunately, the air quality in only 2 out of 22 days was partly impacted by biomass burning in August in Beijing, the month that 2008 Olympic games will take place. The quantitative contribution of biomass burning to ambient PM2.5 concentrations in Guangzhou city was also estimated by the ratio of levoglocusan to PM2.5 in both the ambient air and biomass burning plumes. The results show that biomass burning contributes 3.0–16.8% and 4.0–19.0% of PM2.5 concentrations in Xinken and Guangzhou downtown, respectively.