Evaluation of soil erosion risk using Analytic Network Process and GIS: A case study from Spanish mountain olive plantations

The study presents an approach that combined objective information such as sampling or experimental data with subjective information such as expert opinions. This combined approach was based on the Analytic Network Process method. It was applied to evaluate soil erosion risk and overcomes one of the drawbacks of USLE/RUSLE soil erosion models, namely that they do not consider interactions among soil erosion factors. Another advantage of this method is that it can be used if there are insufficient experimental data. The lack of experimental data can be compensated for through the use of expert evaluations. As an example of the proposed approach, the risk of soil erosion was evaluated in olive groves in Southern Spain, showing the potential of the ANP method for modelling a complex physical process like soil erosion.     

Potential solar radiation pattern in relation to the monthly distribution of giant pandas in Foping Nature Reserve, China

Solar radiation is an important parameter in ecological process modeling, hydrological modeling and bio-physical modeling. However, models focusing on solar radiation in relation to giant panda habitat and seasonal distribution are limited. The research aims to form spatial models of 12 month solar radiation patterns and to investigate the relation between the solar radiation patterns and the monthly distribution patterns of giant pandas. The solar radiation model of Kumar et al. was adopted for this study in Foping Nature Reserve (NR), China. By comparing twelve monthly solar radiation patterns and calculating statistics such as maximum, minimum, mean and standard deviation of the solar radiation, diversified solar radiation patterns over different months were obtained. Maximum solar radiation occurred in June and July, while minimum solar radiation occurred in December and January. The annual sum of solar radiation was 6954 MJ/m² in Foping NR. The range in solar radiation was smaller in hot months and larger in cold months. Radio tracking data of giant pandas were collected for twelve months and the ensuing maps were overlaid with the twelve-month solar radiation map to analyze the relation between the giant panda's monthly distribution and solar radiation. Our results showed that giant pandas prefer areas with lower solar radiation in warm months and select areas with higher solar radiation in cold months, which illustrates that the distribution of giant pandas is indeed affected by solar radiation. To a certain degree, it also explains the behavior of seasonal movement by giant pandas in Foping NR.     

Clearing the way for reducing emissions from tropical deforestation

Carbon emissions from tropical deforestation account for about 25% of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions but cannot be credited under current climate change agreements. In the discussions around the architecture of the post-2012 climate regime, the possibility of including credits for reduced emissions from deforestation arises. The paper reviews two approaches for this, compensated reductions (CR) as proposed by Santilli et al. and the Joint Research Centre proposal that combine voluntary commitments by non-Annex I countries to reduce emissions from deforestation with carbon market financing. Both approaches have the clear advantages of simplicity and the possibility of fitting to an evolving greenhouse gas emission reduction regime. The authors consider the strengths and limitations of each proposal and build upon them to address several implementation challenges and options for improvement. Given the urgency of avoiding dangerous climate change, the timely development of technically sound, politically acceptable, cost-effective and practicable measures to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is essential. These two approaches take us a step closer to this goal, but they need to be refined rapidly to enable this goal to be realised.     

From Framework to Action: The DESIRE Approach to Combat Desertification

It has become increasingly clear that desertification can only be tackled through a multi-disciplinary approach that not only involves scientists but also stakeholders. In the DESIRE project such an approach was taken. As a first step, a conceptual framework was developed in which the factors and processes that may lead to land degradation and desertification were described. Many of these factors do not work independently, but can reinforce or weaken one another, and to illustrate these relationships sustainable management and policy feedback loops were included. This conceptual framework can be applied globally, but can also be made site-specific to take into account that each study site has a unique combination of bio-physical, socio-economic and political conditions. Once the conceptual framework was defined, a methodological framework was developed in which the methodological steps taken in the DESIRE approach were listed and their logic and sequence were explained. The last step was to develop a concrete working plan to put the project into action, involving stakeholders throughout the process. This series of steps, in full or in part, offers explicit guidance for other organizations or projects that aim to reduce land degradation and desertification.     

Linking planetary boundaries and ecosystem accounting,with an illustration for the Colombian Orinoco river basin

Economic development has increased pressures on natural resources during the last decades. The concept of planetary boundaries has been developed to propose limits on human activities based on earth processes and ecological thresholds. However, this concept was not developed to downscale planetary boundaries to sub-global level. The absence of boundaries at sub-global levels constrains the use of the concept in environmental governance and natural resource management, because decisions are typically taken at these levels. Decisions at the national level are currently supported, among others, by statistical frameworks in particular the System of National Accounts. However, statistical frameworks were not developed to compile environmental information, hindering environmental decision making. Our study examines if and how ecosystem accounting can be used in combination with the concept of planetary boundaries in guiding human activities at the level of a river basin. We assess the applicability of both frameworks for natural resource management in the Orinoco river basin, based on adaptive management components. Our analysis indicates that differences in the purpose of analysis, information provided, and methods constrain the potential integration of both frameworks. Nevertheless, the way both frameworks conceptualize the social system and the interactions between social and ecological systems can facilitate translating planetary boundaries into indicators considered in ecosystem accounting. The information recorded in national ecosystem accounts can support establishing ecological thresholds and, more fundamentally, to relate ecological thresholds to human impacts on ecosystem condition. Capitalizing on these synergies requires further exchange of experiences between the communities working on ecosystem accounting and planetary boundaries.

     

Spatial statistics for modeling of abundance and distribution of wildlife species in the Masai Mara ecosystem, Kenya

This study illustrates the use of modern statistical procedures for better wildlife management by addressing three key issues: determination of abundance, modeling of animal distributions and variability of diversity in space and time. Prior information in Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is used to improve estimates of abundance. Measures of autocorrelation are included when modeling distributions of animal counts, and a diversity index to indicate species abundance and richness for large herbivores is developed. Data from the Masai Mara ecosystem in Kenya are used to develop and demonstrate these procedures. The new abundance estimates are up to 35% more accurate than those obtained by existing methods. Significant temporal changes in spatial patterns are found from a space-time analysis of elephant counts over a 20-year period, with strong interactions over 5 km and 6 months space and time separations, respectively. The new diversity index is sensitive to both high abundance and species richness and is also able to capture year to year variation. It indicates an overall marginal decrease in diversity for large herbivores in the Mara ecosystem. The space-time analyses and diversity index can easily be computed thereby providing tools for rapid decision making.     

Strategic assessment of the magnitude and impacts of sand mining in Poyang Lake, China

Planning for the extraction of aggregates is typically dealt with at a case to case basis, without assessing environmental impacts strategically. In this study we assess the impact of sand mining in Poyang Lake, where dredging began in 2001 after sand mining in the Yangtze River had been banned. In April 2008 concern over the impact on the biodiversity led to a ban on sand mining in Poyang Lake until further plans could be developed. Planning will require consideration of both sand extraction in relation to available sediment resources and also environmental impacts within the context of future demand for sand in the lower Yangtze Valley. We used pairs of near-infrared (NIR) Aster satellite imagery to estimate the number of vessels leaving the lake. Based on this we calculated a rate of sand extraction of 236 million m³ year⁻¹ in 2005–2006. This corresponds to 9% of the total Chinese demand for sand. It qualifies Poyang Lake as probably the largest sand mining operation in the world. It also indicates that sand extraction currently dominates the sediment balance of the lower Yangtze River. A positive relation between demand for sand and GDP, revealed by historic data from the USA, suggests that the current per capita demand for sand in China might increase in the near future from 2 to 4 m³ year⁻¹. We review various environmental impacts and question whether it will be possible to preserve the rich biodiversity of the lake, while continuing at the same time satisfying the increasing Chinese demand for sand. Finally we review alternative options for sand mining, in order to relieve the pressure from the Poyang Lake ecosystem.     

Identifying habitat patches and potential ecological corridors for remnant Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus japonicus) populations in Japan

The Japanese National Biodiversity Strategy 2010 calls for the creation of ecological networks as a biodiversity conservation policy. However, there is an obvious lack of information on the spatial distribution of many species and a lack of scientific methods for examining habitat requirements to establish the need for constructing these networks for target species. This study presents a quantitative method for assessing the need for ecological networks through modeling the potential geographic distributions of species based on a case study of local populations of Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus japonicus) in Fuji and Tanzawa, Japan. A total of 1541 point records of occurrences of Asiatic black bears and 11 potential predictors were analyzed in a GIS environment. After a predictive distributional map was obtained using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm, a gap analysis was carried out and population size was estimated. Approximately 24% of the bear's predicted habitat area fell within a wildlife protection area, 2% within a nature reserve, and 37% within natural parks. Conservation forest comprised 54% of the total area of predicted habitat; of this, national forest comprised 2%, and private and communal forest comprised 37%. The total estimated Asiatic black bear population in this region was 242, with 179 individuals in the Fuji local population, 26 in the Tanzawa local population, and 37 in the corridor patch between the two local populations. Our study also found a potential corridor connecting the Fuji and Tanzawa local populations, as well as potential habitat corridors in the Fuji region containing subpopulations on Mt. Fuji (119 individuals) and Mt. Kenashi (53 individuals). An additional subpopulation on Mt. Ashitaka (7 individuals) is isolated and not fully protected by a zoning plan. Mt. Furo's subpopulation is considered to be almost extinct, although black bears were observed here until 2002 based on the report by Mochizuki et al. (2005). The total black bear population of the Fuji-Tanzawa region is considered to be “endangered”; thus, an adequate population size might be difficult to maintain even if this region were to be internally connected by means of an ecological network.     

Improving National-Scale Carbon Stock Inventories Using Knowledge on Land Use History

National-scale inventories of soil organic carbon (SOC) and forest floor carbon (FFC) stocks have a high uncertainty. Inventories are often based on the interpolation of sampled information, often using a number of covariables to help such interpolation. The rationale for the choice of these covariables is not always documented, despite the fact that many local-scale studies have identified the factors explaining spatial variability of SOC and FFC stocks. These studies indicate, among others the importance of long-term land use history. Despite this, information on the effects of land use history has never been used to explain variability of carbon stocks in national-scale inventories. We designed an alternative method to improve national-scale inventories of SOC and FCC for the Dutch sand area that takes stock of the findings of detailed case studies. Determinants for SOC and FFC stocks derived from landscape-scale case studies were used to map national-scale spatial variability and to calculate national totals. The resulting national-scale spatial distribution was compared with the SOC stock map from the current Dutch greenhouse gas inventory. Using land use history to explain SOC variability decreased the error of the SOC stock estimate in 60 % of the area. The error in FFC stocks decreased in half of the forest area after including soil fertility, tree species, and forest age as explanatory factors. Estimates with reduced uncertainty will make land use and land management a more attractive and acceptable mitigation option to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases for the LULUCF sector.