The estimation of historical CO2 trajectories is indeterminate: Comment on “A new look at atmospheric carbon dioxide”

A paper by Hofmann et al. (2009, this journal) is critiqued. It is shown that their exponential model for characterizing CO₂ trajectories for historical data is not estimated properly. An exponential model is properly estimated and is shown to fit over the entire 51 year period of available data. Further, the entire problem of estimating models for the CO₂ historical data is shown to be ill-posed because alternate model forms fit the data equally well. To illustrate this point the past 51 years of CO₂ data were analyzed using three different time-dependent models that capture the historical pattern of CO₂ increase. All three fit with R² > 0.98, are visually indistinguishable when overlaid, and match each other during the calibration period with R² > 0.999. Projecting the models forward to 2100, the exponential model comes quite close to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) best estimate of 836 ppmv. The other two models project values far below the IPCC low estimates. The problem of characterizing historical CO₂ levels is thus indeterminate, because multiple models fit the data equally well but forecast very different future trajectories.     

Risk management of road and rail transport of hazardous materials in Sicily

A Transportation Risk Analysis (TRA) tool has been used to accurately assess the risk associated to a variety of road and rail transportation cases representative of hazardous materials transport by land in Sicily. Due to the high risk level, some risk mitigation options have been investigated: the possibility of changing route and/or transport modalities have been examined for each transportation activity, all the combinations of road, rail and intermodal (road+rail) transport have been calculated and that minimising the risk has been identified with the aid of the TRA tool.     

How the management aspects can affect the results of the QRA

This paper describes a procedure to include into the quantitative risk assessment (and namely in the construction and solution of the Fault Trees) the Safety Management System (SMS) aspects.The parameters used for probabilistic assessment of the Expected Number of Failures (ENF) of a Top Event are parameterised depending on:

• 1.a weight assigned to each SMS section with reference to the parameter;
• 2.a judgment about the correct application of the same SMS section.

Each probabilistic parameter (e.g. failure rates, mean time to repair, and so on) is thus modified using a mathematical algorithm, where an overall parameter including all the SMS sections influencing each single parameter is defined.The application of the procedure to a formaldehyde plant allowed the validation of the method and is here entirely reported.     

The interactive effects of conscientiousness,openness to experience,and political skill on job performance in complex jobs: The importance of context

Caveats concerning the ability of personality to predict job performance have been raised because of seemingly modest criterion‐related validity. The goal of the present research was to test whether narrowing the context via the type of job (i.e., jobs with complex task demands) and adding a social skill‐related moderator (i.e., political skill) would improve performance prediction. Further, along with political skill, the broad factor of personality demonstrated in prior research to have the strongest criterion validity (i.e., conscientiousness) was joined with a narrow construct closely related to openness to experience (i.e., learning approach) in a three‐way interactive prediction of supervisor‐rated task performance. With the employee–supervisor dyads among professionals, but not with the control group of non‐professional employees, task performance was predicted by the three‐way interaction, such that those high on all three received the highest performance ratings. Implications, strengths and limitations, and directions for future research are discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Occupational Health and Social Resources

There is a relationship between the changes in work-related diseases and the following factors: the transformation of the organization of work, organizational development, as well as human and social changes in the work environment. These factors also influence the maintenance of industrial health and safety standards at work. Safety technology will continue to be important, but will be reduced in significance compared to the so-called soft factors, that is, all dimensions and parameters affecting people’s health and social environment at the work place.

It seems that in the future the relationship between the social resource development and work protection will become more relevant. Social resource development influences the quality of work performance and motivation, the quality of work and work protection, the likelihood of accidents and breakdowns, and the level of self-control and capacity of change.

The consequences of work protection research will be discussed in this article with a focus on the contribution of social sciences.     

Ergonomic analysis of working postures using OWAS in semi-trailer assembly,applying an individual sampling strategy

In semi-trailer assembly, workers are exposed to several physical risk factors. Awkward working postures have not yet been investigated in semi-trailer assembly, although they are known to be a major risk factor for musculoskeletal disorders. We therefore conducted a comprehensive ergonomic analysis of working postures using the Ovako working posture analysing system (OWAS), with an individual sampling strategy. The postural load in semi-trailer assembly was assessed on the basis of 20,601 observations of 63 workers executing a representative set of nine work tasks. According to the OWAS, the postural load of various working postures and body part positions may have a harmful effect on the musculoskeletal system. We therefore give examples of corrective measures that could improve awkward working postures. Applying an individual sampling strategy was revealed to have advantages over a collective strategy, so this is recommended for future ergonomic analyses.