Response surface modeling-based source contribution analysis and VOC emission control policy assessment in a typical ozone-polluted urban Shunde, China

To develop a sound ozone (O₃) pollution control strategy, it is important to well understand and characterize the source contribution due to the complex chemical and physical formation processes of O₃. Using the “Shunde” city as a pilot summer case study, we apply an innovative response surface modeling (RSM) methodology based on the Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling simulations to identify the O₃ regime and provide dynamic analysis of the precursor contributions to effectively assess the O₃ impacts of volatile organic compound (VOC) control strategy. Our results show that Shunde is a typical VOC-limited urban O₃ polluted city. The “Jiangmen” city, as the main upper wind area during July 2014, its VOCs and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emissions make up the largest contribution (9.06%). On the contrary, the contribution from local (Shunde) emission is lowest (6.35%) among the seven neighbor regions. The local VOCs industrial source emission has the largest contribution comparing to other precursor emission sectors in Shunde. The results of dynamic source contribution analysis further show that the local NO_x control could slightly increase the ground O₃ under low (10.00%) and medium (40.00%) reduction ratios, while it could start to turn positive to decrease ground O₃ under the high NO_x abatement ratio (75.00%). The real-time assessment of O₃ impacts from VOCs control strategies in Pearl River Delta (PRD) shows that the joint regional VOCs emission control policy will effectively reduce the ground O₃ concentration in Shunde.     

Air quality during the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games

China is taking major steps to improve Beijing's air quality for the 2008 Olympic Games. However, concentrations of fine particulate matter and ozone in Beijing often exceed healthful levels in the summertime. Based on the US EPA's Models-3/CMAQ model simulation over the Beijing region, we estimate that about 34% of PM_2.5 on average and 35–60% of ozone during high ozone episodes at the Olympic Stadium site can be attributed to sources outside Beijing. Neighboring Hebei and Shandong Provinces and the Tianjin Municipality all exert significant influence on Beijing's air quality. During sustained wind flow from the south, Hebei Province can contribute 50–70% of Beijing's PM_2.5 concentrations and 20–30% of ozone. Controlling only local sources in Beijing will not be sufficient to attain the air quality goal set for the Beijing Olympics. There is an urgent need for regional air quality management studies and new emission control strategies to ensure that the air quality goals for 2008 are met.     

Development of a Dynamic Pharmacokinetic Model to Estimate Bioconcentration of Xenobiotics in Earthworms

A simple and dynamic pharmacokinetic model was developed to predict bioconcentration of organic contaminants in earthworms. The model was parameterized experimentally by placing Lumbricus terrestris in soil contaminated with 200 μg/cm² of malathion. The toxicokinetics of malathion uptake, depuration, and degradation in soil is measured. After parameterization, the model was able to accurately predict the bioconcentration factor of malathion at steady state. Sensitivity analyses were performed and the rate of absorption was determined to be the most sensitive parameter. Varying the rate of malathion elimination from earthworm tissues, malathion degradation, and the amount of malathion applied to the soil by 25-fold did not result in the bioconcentration of malathion. An increase in the rate of malathion absorption into earthworm tissues by 25-fold did result in bioconcentration. Previously published pharmacokinetic studies on xenobiotics with log K _ow values ranging up to 8.05 were used to test the predictive capacity of the model. The model was able to predict from 83% to 105% of the experimentally derived bioconcentration factors.     

Numerical study on adjusting and controlling effect of forest cover on PM10 and O3

A new-coupled air quality numerical modeling system has been developed and applied to the study on the adjusting and controlling effect of forest cover on air quality. The modeling system is composed of Plant Canopy Layer Model (PCLM), Urban Scale Meteorological Model (USMM), and High-Resolution Chemical Model (HRCM). The system was applied to the study on the ecological adjusting and controlling effects on PM₁₀ and O₃ in Jinan City, China. The results show that the forest cover can adjust and control PM₁₀ and O₃ significantly by reducing the concentrations of PM₁₀ while increasing the concentrations of O₃ with the increase of forest cover.     

Health effects of arsenic in drinking water: Research needs

Research needed to resolve the uncertainties of cancer risk from ingestion of arsenic in drinking water is described. The recommendations fall into two categories reflecting the areas of greatest uncertainty regarding the assessment of arsenic risk: research on the mechanism of cancer, and research on the metabolism and detoxification of arsenic. The recommendations are discussed in light of risk assessment and risk management issues, stressing the need for scientists to interpret research findings for decision managers.This document has been reviewed in accordance with the US Environmental Protection Agency Policy and approved for publication. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendations for use.     

Environmental estrogens in an urban aquatic ecosystem: I. Spatial and temporal occurrence of estrogenic activity in effluent-dominated systems

The present study investigated occurrence of environmental estrogens (EEs) in waterways managed by the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago (‘District’) — one of the largest and most complex water districts in the United States. The objectives of the study were: (i) to document spatial and temporal occurrence of EEs in the Chicago Area Waterways (CAWs); (ii) to determine whether water reclamation plant (WRP) effluents contribute to estrogenic pollution of the receiving streams; (iii) to determine whether the mandated water quality monitoring data could be used to predict estrogenic pollution in the receiving streams; and (iv) to determine whether snow melt, storm runoff and combined sewer overflows may also be contributors of estrogenic activity to these systems. The estrogenic potency of the waterways was assessed using a cell-based reporter gene assay. The water quality data was readily available as part of the District's regular monitoring program. Our findings indicate that EEs are commonly found in the CAWs, and that WRP effluents are one of, but not the only important contributor to estrogenic activity. Mean estrogenic activities in CAWs (11 ng estradiol equivalents (EEQs/L)) are well within the values reported for other urban areas and WRP effluents. The estrogenic activity exhibited significant seasonal variation with highest values noted during the spring and summer months. When comparing the mean estrogenic activity of general use waters, secondary contact waters and WRP effluents, we found that general use waters had significantly lower estrogenic activity (ca 5 ng EEQ/L) than the other two matrices (ca 15 and 17 ng EEQ/L respectively). Our analyses indicate that estrogenic activity of the waterways was not reliably associated with mandated water quality parameters, and that such measurements may not be useful for predicting estrogenic activity, especially so in the complex urban systems. One of the prominent findings of this study is that EEs do not follow predictable spatial patterns — many of the upstream sites in the heavily urbanized areas had levels of estrogenic activity comparable to those found in the effluents and downstream locations. Our data suggest that surface runoff and snow melt are estrogenic (0–9 ng EEQ/L), and given that their estrogenic activities are similar to those of their receiving waterways (0–7 ng EEQ/L), we conclude that these non-WRP sources are important contributors to estrogenic activity of the CAWs.     

Temporal patterns in daily measurements of inorganic and organic speciated PM2.5 in Denver

Airborne particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM_2.5) has been linked to a wide range of adverse health effects and as a result is currently regulated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. PM_2.5 originates from a multitude of sources and has heterogeneous physical and chemical characteristics. These features complicate the link between PM_2.5 emission sources, ambient concentrations and health effects. The goal of the Denver Aerosol Sources and Health (DASH) study is to investigate associations between sources and health using daily measurements of speciated PM_2.5 in Denver.The datxa set being collected for the DASH study will be the longest daily speciated PM_2.5 data set of its kind covering 5.5 years of daily inorganic and organic speciated measurements. As of 2008, 4.5 years of bulk measurements (mass, inorganic ions and total carbon) and 1.5 years of organic molecular marker measurements have been completed. Several techniques were used to reveal long-term and short-term temporal patterns in the bulk species and the organic molecular marker species. All species showed a strong annual periodicity, but their monthly and seasonal behavior varied substantially. Weekly periodicities appear in many compound classes with the most significant weekday/weekend effect observed for elemental carbon, cholestanes, hopanes, select polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), heavy n-alkanoic acids and methoxyphenols. Many of the observed patterns can be explained by meteorology or anthropogenic activity patterns while others do not appear to have such obvious explanations. Similarities and differences in these findings compared to those reported from other cities are highlighted.     

Estimating micrometeorological inputs for modeling dispersion in urban areas during stable conditions

We examine the performance of three methods to estimate the surface friction velocity and the Monin–Obukhov (MO) length in stable conditions. Estimates from these methods are compared with measurements made at two urban sites: the Wilmington site located in the middle of an urban area, and the VTMX site located on a sloping, smooth area in Salt Lake City. The first method uses the mean wind at a single height (Single U or SU), the second uses the wind speed at a single level and the temperature difference between two levels (U delta T or UDT), and the third method uses two levels of wind speed and temperature (delta U delta T or DUDT). The performance of the SU and UDT methods in estimating u_* are comparable. The SU method yields better estimates of the MO length than the UDT method does. The DUDT method performs poorly in estimating both u_* and L. The major conclusions of this study are that (1) measurements of mean winds and temperatures at one or two levels at an urban location can provide adequate estimates of micrometeorological variables required in modeling dispersion in the stable boundary layer, and (2) methods based on using differences in temperatures and velocities between two levels can provide unreliable estimates of these variables because these differences can be overwhelmed by inevitable uncertainties in the measurement of mean variables.     

Electrostatic forces in wind-pollination—Part 2: Simulations of pollen capture

During fair-weather conditions, a 100 V m⁻¹ electric field exists between positive charge suspended in the air and negative charge distributed on the surfaces of plants and on the ground. The fields surrounding plants are highly complex reaching magnitudes up to 3×10⁶ V m⁻¹. These fields possibly influence the capture of charged wind-dispersed pollen grains. In this article, we model the electric fields around grounded conductive spherical “plants” and then estimate the forces and resulting trajectories of charged pollen grains approaching the plants. Pollen grain capture depends on many factors: the size, density, and charge of the pollen; the size and location of the plant reproductive structures; as well as wind speed, ambient electric field magnitude, and air viscosity. Electrostatic forces become increasingly important as pollen grain charge increases and pollen grain size (mass) decreases. A positively charged pollen grain is attracted to plants, while a negatively charged pollen grain is repelled. The model suggests that a pollen grain (10 μm radius, carrying a positive charge of 1 fC) is captured if passing within 2 mm of the plant. A similar negatively charged pollen grain is repelled and frequently uncapturable. The importance of electrostatic forces in pollen capture is limited by wind, becoming virtually irrelevant at high wind speeds (e.g. 10 m s⁻¹). However, during light wind conditions (e.g. 1 m s⁻¹), atmospheric electricity may be a significant factor in the capture of wind-dispersed pollen.     

Air emission inventories in North America: a critical assessment

Although emission inventories are the foundation of air quality management and have supported substantial improvements in North American air quality, they have a number of shortcomings that can potentially lead to ineffective air quality management strategies. Major reductions in the largest emissions sources have made accurate inventories of previously minor sources much more important to the understanding and improvement of local air quality. Changes in manufacturing processes, industry types, vehicle technologies, and metropolitan infrastructure are occurring at an increasingly rapid pace, emphasizing the importance of inventories that reflect current conditions. New technologies for measuring source emissions and ambient pollutant concentrations, both at the point of emissions and from remote platforms, are providing novel approaches to collecting data for inventory developers. Advances in information technologies are allowing data to be shared more quickly, more easily, and processed and compared in novel ways that can speed the development of emission inventories. Approaches to improving quantitative measures of inventory uncertainty allow air quality management decisions to take into account the uncertainties associated with emissions estimates, providing more accurate projections of how well alternative strategies may work. This paper discusses applications of these technologies and techniques to improve the accuracy, timeliness, and completeness of emission inventories across North America and outlines a series of eight recommendations aimed at inventory developers and air quality management decision-makers to improve emission inventories and enable them to support effective air quality management decisions for the foreseeable future.