模糊综合评价法在钢铁企业安全投资合理性评价中的应用

为了对钢铁企业安全投资进行模糊综合评价,建立了钢铁企业安全投资的评价体系,确定各因素的权重。得出模糊综合评价矩阵,可对各因素进行评价分析;得出某钢铁企业安全投资现状分数为83.9分,等级为较好,需着重加强安全培训、劳保品、工业卫生等人因素方面的投资;在环境方面的投资较合理。     

Change in avian functional fingerprints of a Neotropical montane forest over 100 years as an indicator of ecosystem integrity

Ecologically relevant traits of organisms in an assemblage determine an ecosystem's functional fingerprint (i.e., the shape, size, and position of multidimensional trait space). Quantifying changes in functional fingerprints can therefore provide information about the effects of diversity loss or gain through time on ecosystem condition and is a promising approach to monitoring ecological integrity. This, however, is seldom possible owing to limitations in historical surveys and a lack of data on organismal traits, particularly in diverse tropical regions. Using data from detailed bird surveys from 4 periods across more than a century, and morphological and ecological traits of 233 species, we quantified changes in the avian functional fingerprint of a tropical montane forest in the Andes of Colombia. We found that 78% of the variation in functional space, regardless of period, was described by 3 major axes summarizing body size, dispersal ability (indexed by wing shape), and habitat breadth. Changes in species composition significantly altered the functional fingerprint of the assemblage and functional richness and dispersion decreased 35–60%. Owing to species extirpations and to novel additions to the assemblage, functional space decreased over time, but at least 11% of its volume in the 2010s extended to areas of functional space that were unoccupied in the 1910s. The assemblage now includes fewer large-sized species, more species with greater dispersal ability, and fewer habitat specialists. Extirpated species had high functional uniqueness and distinctiveness, resulting in large reductions in functional richness and dispersion after their loss, which implies important consequences for ecosystem integrity. Conservation efforts aimed at maintaining ecosystem function must move beyond seeking to sustain species numbers to designing complementary strategies for the maintenance of ecological function by identifying and conserving species with traits conferring high vulnerability such as large body size, poor dispersal ability, and greater habitat specialization. Article impact statement: Changes in functional fingerprints provide a means to quantify the integrity of ecological assemblages affected by diversity loss or gain.     

Toward harmonizing prospective effectiveness assessment for road safety: Comparing tools in standard test case simulations

Abstract

Objective: With the overall goal to harmonize prospective effectiveness assessment of active safety systems, the specific objective of this study is to identify and evaluate sources of variation in virtual precrash simulations and to suggest topics for harmonization resulting in increased comparability and thus trustworthiness of virtual simulation-based prospective effectiveness assessment.

Methods: A round-robin assessment of the effectiveness of advanced driver assistance systems was performed using an array of state-of-the-art virtual simulation tools on a set of standard test cases. The results were analyzed to examine reasons for deviations in order to identify and assess aspects that need to be harmonized and standardized. Deviations between results calculated by independent engineering teams using their own tools should be minimized if the research question is precisely formulated regarding input data, models, and postprocessing steps.

Results: Two groups of sources of variations were identified; one group (mostly related to the implementation of the system under test) can be eliminated by using a more accurately formulated research question, whereas the other group highlights further harmonization needs because it addresses specific differences in simulation tool setups. Time-to-collision calculations, vehicle dynamics, especially braking behavior, and hit-point position specification were found to be the main sources of variation.

Conclusions: The study identified variations that can arise from the use of different simulation setups in assessment of the effectiveness of active safety systems. The research presented is a first of its kind and provides significant input to the overall goal of harmonization by identifying specific items for standardization. Future activities aim at further specification of methods for prospective assessments of the effectiveness of active safety, which will enhance comparability and trustworthiness in this kind of studies and thus contribute to increased traffic safety.     

矿热炉炉壳安装作业危险性分析

为减少事故损失,必须对矿热炉安装施工危险源进行分析。基于此,对矿热炉安装工序中最重要工序炉壳安装应用作业危险性分析进行分析。将炉壳安装作业分成3大部分,用鱼刺图分析方法进行分析,总结出矿热炉炉壳安装中事故发生的主要原因并提出对策措施,以预防和减少事故的发生。     

情感诉求对交通安全广告效果的影响

为检验交通公益广告中情感诉求变化对广告效果的影响,采用试验法操作广告情感诉求类型,使用眼动技术和Go/no-go联想测验(GNAT),通过比较不同效价和唤醒度的情感诉求广告对受众的注意力和内隐态度的影响,评估交通安全广告情感诉求类型的说服效果。研究发现:被试对低唤醒广告文字区的眼动注视时间和注视点个数显著长于/多于对高唤醒广告文字区的注视时间和注视点个数;被试观看高唤醒消极的广告后,正确驾驶行为的积极态度显著下降,而低唤醒消极/高唤醒积极/低唤醒积极的公益广告对于被试的内隐态度的改变没有显著差异。结果表明,高唤醒度积极广告能够提升受众的注意力,而高唤醒度消极广告则会损害受众对正确驾驶行为的内隐态度。     

核算间接冷却水污染当量数的研讨

针对间接冷却水的特点和核算其污染当量数过程中存在的问题，阐述了间接冷却水的界定，水源水的采样监测技术，本底值的扣除以及超标排放的判别等环节的技术要求和注意事项，并就与之密切相关的几个问题展开了讨论,为核算间接冷却水当量数提供了一定的参考依据，建议增加水湿排放指标，以切实控制间接冷却水造成的主要污染－热污染。     

企业需要建立人性化的安全管理

由于我国对企业特别是海外来大陆投资的企业，缺乏严格的安全管理手段，致使不少企业屡次出现安全事故。为了减少企业安全事故的发生，提高企业安全度，要求企业在贯彻“安全第一，预防为主”的基本方针的基础上。建立“以人为本。以制度和伦理道德为约束的人性化的安全管理系统”。本文给出了该系统的模型，并对此模型进行了分析和解释，探讨了相关的几个理论基础，最后给出了人性化安全管理的实质。通过该系统的管理执行，使企业在尊重人权、尊重生命的前提下发展壮大，最终实现安全的全球化。     

村级水资源的管理与利用研究--来自南方四个村的案例分析

农村水资源及其相关设施的改革需要更多了解村和户层次上的现实状况和机制安排。以避免改革扭曲和失败。通过对湖北和广西共四个村的村委会、关键知情人及120个农户的调查。在村和农户两个层次上描述水资源及其相关设施的管理与利用，尤其是在干旱年份村和户所采取的策略。并深入分析了农村村级水资源管理与利用的制度安排与问题。得出的结论是。追求水利管理效率的市场化改革需要考虑干旱的威胁，要有基于风险的制度设计和法律保障。     

我国硒淡水水生生物水质基准值推导

水体中硒含量过高会导致水生生态系统退化,而中国现有的地表水环境质量标准对硒的标准值设定并不是基于我国水生生物相关毒理学研究得出的,难以因地制宜地保护我国水生生物.为保护我国水生生物,本研究利用物种敏感度分布法,推导出基于最大无效应浓度（NOEC）、最低有效应浓度（LOEC）的慢性硒（无机）淡水水质一级基准值和基于半数致死效应浓度（LC₅₀）、半数最大效应浓度（EC₅₀）、半数抑制浓度（IC₅₀）的急性硒（无机）淡水水质二级基准值分别为0.58 μg·L^-1、0.52 mg·L^-1,发现我国现有的水质标准可能会对我国水生生物造成欠保护.进一步推导出为保护我国鱼类的硒（无机）淡水水质一级、二级基准值分别为0.21 μg·L^-1、1.60 mg·L^-1,以及硒淡水鱼类饲料有机硒和无机硒含量一级基准值分别为97 μg·kg^-1和98 μg·kg^-1.本研究基于硒对水生生物的急性和慢性毒性效应,推导出硒的系列基准值,为保护我国淡水水生生物安全的标准制定提供数据支撑和科学依据.     

基于TMVOC的地下水位波动带苯系物迁移转化模拟

为探究水位波动情况下苯系物的迁移转化规律,提高石油污染场地地下水污染治理精度,以西北某傍河石化场地为研究对象,基于TMVOC模型对特征污染物苯系物开展泄漏模拟,通过情景模拟比较水位波动对苯系物迁移转化的影响,并从污染分布、相间转化等方面,解析地下水位稳定和波动状态下苯系物迁移转化过程差异.结果表明:①TMVOC模型较好地模拟了水位波动状态下苯系物迁移转化过程.②相较于水位稳定状态下,水位波动作用下苯系物污染深度增加0.5 m,污染面积增加25%,总质量增加12 kg.③水位稳定和波动状态下苯系物"气-液-NAPL（Non-Aqueous Phase Liquids）相"占比分别为0.17%、2.03%、97.8%和0.04%、3.69%、96.27%.④NAPL相苯系物饱和度分布与苯系物质量分布呈正相关,水位波动造成NAPL相初始饱和度降低,且初始水位面以下NAPL相饱和度升高.⑤对于苯而言,水位波动状态下非饱和带中苯在液相中的质量是水位稳定状态下的1.11倍,饱和带为10.15倍.研究显示,水位波动显著地影响了苯系物的迁移转化过程,促进了苯系物的溶解,并使更多的苯系物残留在地下介质中.