我国城市灾害风险应对现状及对策研究

阐述了城市灾害的分类;从城市灾害预防与控制,应急反应与救援等方面分析我国在城市灾害风险控制与应对上的不足;提出8个方面的对策。该对策研究包括:建立城市安全规划、风险防范和危机管理法律体系;实施城市防灾减灾规划并融入城市规划中;完善城市灾害风险决策支持系统和信息管理系统;实行安全规划风险评价机制;加快防灾减灾综合管理机构建设;建立科学、完善的应急救援体系;加强安全教育和防灾减灾宣传;加强城市安全科学研究与交流。该研究结果对如何提高我国城市灾害风险预防与控制能力及应急救援水平具有重要的借鉴和指导作用。     

Calculating losses of crops in Denmark caused by high ozone levels

In order to help guide air pollution legislation at the European level, harmful air pollution effects on agriculture crops and the consequent economic implications for policy have been studied for more than a decade. Ozone has been labeled as the most serious of the damaging air pollutants to agriculture, where growth rates and consequently yields are dramatically reduced. Quantifying the effects has formed a key factor in policymaking. Based on the widely held view that AOT40 (Accumulated exposure Over Threshold of 40 ppb) is a good indicator of ozone-induced damage, the Danish Eulerian Model (DEM) was used to compute reduced agriculture yields on a 50 km×50 km grid over Europe. In one set of scenarios, a ten year meteorological time series was combined with realistic emission inventories. In another, various idealized emission reduction scenarios are applied to the same meteorological time series. The results show substantial inter-annual variability in economic losses, due in most part to meteorological conditions which varied much more substantially than the emissions during the same period. It is further shown that, taking all uncertainties into account, estimates of ozone-induced economic losses require that a long meteorological record is included in the analysis, for statistical significance to be improved to acceptable levels for use in policy analysis. In this study, calculations were made for Europe as a whole, though this paper presents results relevant for Denmark.     

Numerical simulation of hydrogen–air detonation for damage assessment in realistic accident scenarios

An accidental hydrogen release within an equipment enclosure may result in the presence of detonable mixture in a confined environment. From a safety standpoint, it is then useful to assess the potential for damage. In that context, numerical simulation of the sequence of events subsequent to detonative ignition provides a useful tool, although with obvious limitations. This article describes the procedure, summarizes two case studies, and reviews the limitations. First, a hydrogen dispersion pattern is obtained from numerical simulation of dispersion, using a commercial package designed primarily for incompressible flow. This dispersion cloud is then used as the initial condition in an inviscid, compressible, reactive flow simulation. To force detonative ignition, a sufficiently large amount of energy is deposited in a small region that corresponds to the ignition location. Chemistry is modeled using a single step Arrhenius model. Because the wave thickness is small compared with the computational domain, a fine mesh is needed, limiting the practicality of the process to two-dimensional geometries. This is the most significant limitation; it is conservative. The two cases described in the paper include an electrolyzer, in which a small release occurs, leading potentially to some damage to the enclosure, and a reformer, in which the consequences are potentially more serious.     

基于GPS与GSM的交通事故自动呼救系统的设计

结合GPS的定位功能和GSM的远程无线通讯功能,提出一种以提高交通安全、减少人员伤亡为目的的车辆交通事故自动呼救系统的构建方案,该系统会伴随安全气囊的启动而启动,也可手动启动。车载模块将安全气囊点火信号送入微处理器,通过串行接口驱动无线数据传输模块,经GSM网络将GPS的定位信息发送到监控中心,并可建立车载模块与监控中心之间的语音通讯,给出车载模块硬件电路实现、软件设计以及控制中心的设计方案,并对系统的关键技术进行了说明。     

基于社会科学统计程序(SPSS)回归性分析的尾矿库事故预测模型

基于社会科学统计程序(SPSS)软件的分析功能,对调查研究中获取的尾矿库案例进行数据提炼和分类编码,找出相关因子并进行回归性分析。最终目的是找出尾矿库各个因素的内在联系,建立简单的尾矿库事故模型,从而可以初步预测尾矿库事故发生的可能性。该预测模型为尾矿库事故的研究提出了新方法,对于防灾减灾以及保护人民生命财产安全起到了积极作用。     

北京核与辐射恐怖事件风险分析

采用风险分类-要素分析-风险排序的思路,对北京市核与辐射恐怖事件风险进行分析。根据国际上1998—2006年该类恐怖事件的实例,从事件所涉及的材料、场所角度将核与辐射恐怖事件分为6大类。结合北京市的实际情况进行涉核恐怖事件的要素分析,将北京市各类场所划分为4类敏感区并与5类涉核恐怖事件结合起来,得到北京市核与辐射恐怖事件风险构成图。通过风险分析,笔者认为北京市发生核与辐射恐怖事件风险最大的场所为核研究机构,最容易发生的核与辐射恐怖事件类型为涉及放射源的恐怖事件,结合分析结果对从阻止、探测、响应3个层次上提出了奥运核安保工作的反核恐工作建议。     

我国消防标准体系分析

为明确我国消防标准体系发展的方向和重点,分别从消防标准的数量、标龄、类型、属性和采标情况等5个方面对我国消防标准体系进行分析,并与国际标准化组织、欧盟标准化委员会和美国的消防标准体系进行了比较。研究结果表明:我国消防标准体系整体适用性在不断增强;需制定周期性标准复审计划;消防基础试验类和管理类标准应成为下一步消防标准制修订的重点;消防强制性标准所占比例有待进一步下调;需建立国际标准动态跟踪机制,同时应注重将我国先进的消防标准转化为国际标准。     

气体二氧化氯对葡萄表面细菌杀菌规律研究

研究气体二氧化氯杀灭金黄色葡萄球菌、大肠杆菌、李斯特单增菌和腐生酵母菌4种葡萄表面的危险致病菌的杀菌规律。在实验范围内,随着气体二氧化氯浓度的增加和杀菌时间的延长,杀菌效果明显增加。当杀菌时间超过12min,杀菌量级几乎不再增加。杀菌效率随温度的增加而减小,在实验温度条件下,只有大肠杆菌的杀菌效果减少了5.38～6.09log量级,其他3种菌均减少了6log量级以上,杀菌作用温度在实验条件下对杀菌效果影响不大。研究表明,当气体二氧化氯的杀菌浓度为25mgl-1、杀菌时间12min、杀菌温度25℃的条件下,金黄色葡萄球菌、李斯特单增菌和腐生酵母菌均减少了6.4log量级以上,而大肠杆菌达到5.76log量级;同时表明二氧化氯气体的杀菌保鲜功能也是食品安全技术非热杀菌手段。     

Using data linkage to assess the impact of motorized recreational vehicle-related injuries in Ohio

Problem

Motorized recreational vehicle (MRV)-related injuries can result in severe medical and financial consequences. The objective of this study was to describe the epidemiology, and clinical and financial impact of MRV-related injuries in Ohio.

Method

Probabilistically linked statewide Emergency Medical Services (EMS) and hospital (inpatient and emergency department) data for 2003 and 2004 were examined. Record pairs with a MRV-related E-code (E821-E823, E825) were included in this study.

Results

There were 2,893 patients with MRV-related injuries, who had linked EMS and hospital records, resulting in more than $15 million in hospital charges and 1,921 inpatient days of hospitalization. The male-to-female ratio was nearly 4:1, and 19% were younger than 16. Almost 82% of cases were not wearing a helmet; there was a trend of decreasing helmet use with increasing age. Mean (SE) inpatient hospital charges and length of stay (LOS) were $22,218 ($1,290) and 3.8 (0.2) days, respectively. The mean (SE) Injury Severity Score (ISS) for inpatients was 9.2 (0.4). Individuals injured on a street/highway were 3.20 times more likely to sustain an ISS ≥ 16 (95% CI: 1.03, 9.88; p = 0.044) and 3.05 times more likely to sustain a traumatic brain injury (TBI) (95% CI: 1.17, 7.94; p = 0.024) than those who were injured at a place designated for sport or recreation. Children aged 12 to 15 and young adults aged 16 to 25 were 2.47 and 2.14 times more likely, respectively, to sustain a TBI than adults aged 36 or older (aged 12 to 15: 95% CI: 1.13, 5.38; p = 0.024; aged 16 to 25: 95% CI: 1.26, 3.64; p = 0.005). Higher ISS was associated with both higher total charges (p < 0.001) and longer LOS (p < 0.001).

Discussion

This study demonstrates that MRV-related injuries are an important public health problem in Ohio, with a substantial clinical and financial impact.

Impact on Industry

Enactment and enforcement of statewide MRV safety legislation and training of MRV users offer valuable opportunities to prevent these costly injuries.     

Evaluation of a healthcare safety climate measurement tool

Problem

Psychometrically validated measurement tools are needed to evaluate an organization's safety climate. In 2000, Gershon and colleagues published a new healthcare safety climate measurement tool to determine its relationship to safe work behavior (Gershon, R., Karkashian, C., Grosch, J., Murphy, L., Escamilla-Cejudo, A., Flanagan, P., et al. (2000). Hospital safety climate and its relationship with safe work practices and workplace exposure incidents. American Journal of Infection Control, 28, 211-21). The present study evaluated the psychometric properties of the Gershon tool when modified to address respiratory rather than bloodborne pathogen exposures.

Method

Medical practitioners, nurses, and nurse aides (n = 460) were surveyed using the modified Gershon tool. Data were analyzed by factor analysis and psychometric properties of the tool evaluated.

Results

Eight safety climate dimensions were extracted from 25 items (Cronbach's alpha range: 0.62 - 0.88). Factor extractions and psychometric properties were reasonably consistent with those of the Gershon tool.

Impact on Industry

The Gershon safety climate tool appears to have sufficient reliability and validity for use by healthcare decision makers as an indicator of employee perceptions of safety in their institution.