基于灰关联度的事故聚类分析

事故是来自系统和环境的风险 ,危害人类的生产、生活和生存活动。对事故进行科学分类是安全管理和事故处理的重要基础。笔者针对现行事故等级分类标准的不足 ,分析了事故造成的人员伤亡和经济损失等多属性特征 ;通过灰关联度确定了各属性指标的不同权重 ,定义了事故间的加权欧氏距离 ;根据事故属性指标的相似度 ,利用聚类分析对事故进行了分类 ;以 2 0 0 3年全国发生的 14起特别重大事故为例进行了实证分析。提出的事故分类思想和方法 ,综合考虑了事故所造成的损失 ,理论严谨、方法实用有效 ,可作为政府有关部门进行事故分类和事故处理的决策依据。     

企业生产安全事故应急救援预案编制技术的研究

企业编制生产安全事故应急救援预案是企业建立生产安全事故应急管理体系的基础工作,对于企业提高生产安全事故应急救援能力,降低企业生产安全事故损失具有重大意义。笔者在对广州发展油品经营有限公司南沙油库事故应急救援预案编制技术的研究基础上,进一步阐述了企业生产安全事故应急管理体系结构,指出了企业生产安全事故应急救援预案编制的总体思路,并从企业生产安全事故应急救援预案编制的技术层面,论述了企业生产安全事故应急救援预案的体系框架及文件要素,指出企业生产安全事故应急救援预案的体系框架可以由总预案和程序文件体系两大部分组成,文件要素可以由2个一级要素、18个二级要素和2 8个三级要素组成。笔者论述的企业生产安全事故应急救援预案编制技术已经在广东省数百家企业得到宣传应用,取得了良好的社会效益。     

论建筑事故经济损失的分担

长期以来,我国建筑事故频繁发生,给国家、企业和个人造成了很大的经济损失,也给社会带来了不安定因素。笔者认为建筑事故经济损失的分担不仅是经济、安全问题,也是一个法律问题。在事故发生后不仅要查清人员的伤亡情况、事故经过、原因分析、责任人处理、人员教育、措施制定、事故经济损失,还要弄清法律问题,要依法问责或依法问罪,也是行政法律问题,依法行政处罚和处分,还是民事法律问题,依法承担民事赔偿。笔者认为企业最好采用保险和非保险转嫁方式把事故造成的经济损失转移出去,减轻自己的负担。只有在找不到其他更好的处置方法,或是为了经济上的节约而并不影响自身的财务稳定且有控制风险的能力,或不知道风险的存在,或虽知风险存在,但由于预测失误、忽略而导致损失,才自己承担。当事故发生后要通过法定程序来确定的建筑事故经济损失是由保险公司、合同另一方和企业分担。     

Dangerous good transportation by road: from risk analysis to emergency planning

Despite the relative recent move towards inherent safe materials, the relentless drive of consumerism requires increased quantities of dangerous goods to be manufactured, transported, stored and used year on year. The safety and effectiveness of road transport systems is to be considered a strategic goal in particular in those countries, like Italy, in which 80% of goods are transported by this means. In this paper, we face the risk from dangerous good transport by presenting a site-oriented framework for risk assessment and developing a theoretical approach for emergency planning and optimisation. In the first step, we collected field data on a pilot highway and developed a database useful to allow a realistic evaluation of the accident frequency on a given route, by means of multivariate statistical analysis. To this end, we considered both inherent factors (such as tunnels, bend radii, height gradient, slope etc), meteorological factors, and traffic factors (traffic frequency of tank truck, dangerous good truck etc.) suitable to modify the standard national accident frequency. By applying the results to a pilot area, referring to flammable and explosive scenarios, we performed a risk assessment sensitive to route features and population exposed. The results show that the risk associated to the transport of hazardous materials, in some highway stretches, can be at the boundary of the acceptability level of risk set down by the well known F/N curves established in the Netherlands. On this basis, in the subsequent step, we developed a theoretical approach, based on the graph theory, to plan optimal emergency actions. The effectiveness of an emergency planning can normally be evaluated in term of system quickness and reliability. As a case study, we applied the developed approach to identify optimal consistency and localisation in the pilot area of ‘prompt action vehicles’, properly equipped, quick to move and ready for every eventuality. Applying this method results in an unambiguous and consistent selection criterion that allows reduction of intervention time, in connection with technical and economic optimisation of emergency equipment.     

Safety with access scaffolds: development of a prototype decision aid based on accident analysis

PROBLEM: Accidents involving temporary access systems, particularly temporary scaffolds, account for a large proportion of injuries in the construction industry worldwide. METHOD: This paper outlines the development of a prototype decision aid (SCAFPASS, an abbreviation for Scaffold Planning Aid for System Safety) to promote access scaffold safety. It was guided by an examination of the root-causes and management deficiencies apparent in: (a) paper-based files of 186 access-related incidents held by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) in the UK; and (b) computer-based files of 2,910 incidents appearing in the HSE database between 1997 to 2000. RESULTS: The more frequent root-causes included the fitting of defective components, unauthorized modification of the structure, omission of barriers, and errors resulting in simple, readily detectable structural faults. Common managerial deficiencies included failure to control risk, unsafe methods and procedures, and inadequate training and supervision. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: SCAFPASS aims to avoid these root-causes by improving safety management from the outset and throughout all phases of a project.     

事故的突变论

事故是系统运动发生的突变。事故潜势是系统在运动过程中所存在的发生事故的可能性。在参量空间 ,用系统参量演化相对于分岔点 (集 )的度量 ,建立事故潜势的数学表达式。事故潜势反映了事故发生的本质特征和机理 ,为预防事故提供了理论依据。     

Age differences in safety attitudes and safety performance in Hong Kong construction workers

PROBLEM: Safety in the construction industry is a major issue in Hong Kong, representing about 46% of all occupational injuries in 1998. This study explored linear and curvilinear relations between age and safety performance (accident rates and occupational injuries), as well as safety attitudes, in construction workers in Hong Kong. METHOD: A Chinese version of the Safety Attitude Questionnaire (SAQ by Donald & Canter) was developed and administered to a sample of Chinese construction workers (N=374, 366 males, 8 females) from 27 construction sites. RESULTS: Accident rates were not related to age. Occupational injuries were related to age in a curvilinear manner, with injuries at first increasing with age, then decreasing. Two safety attitude scales were related to age with older workers exhibiting more positive attitudes to safety. If age and tenure are controlled, some attitude scales are predictors of safety performance. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Management/supervisors, team leaders, and workers are all responsible for safety, and any negative bias toward older construction workers is unfounded.     

从事故特性谈人的安全意识的培养

缺乏安全意识是目前我国重特大伤亡事故发生的主要原因。事故的发生具有偶然性、必然性和可预防性等特性 ,充分认识事故的这些特性对提高安全意识水平有重要的意义。笔者对事故具有的一些基本特性及其与安全意识的关系进行了深入探讨 ,分析了安全意识的含义、特点及其表现形式 ,提出应结合事故的有关特性 ,通过文化、法制、经济等途径培养安全意识 ,不断提高社会公众的安全科技文化素质和自护技能水平。     

危险化学品公路运输事故原因分析与对策

笔者针对危险化学品的公路运输事故 ,从管理原因、人的失误、设备设施的缺陷、路况与环境影响等四方面原因逐一进行剖析 ,进而对政府部门和运输业户提出危险化学品公路运输事故的预防措施     

论重大危险源监控与重大事故隐患治理

重大危险源是指工业活动中危险物质或能量超过临界量的设备、设施或场所。工业活动中重大火灾、爆炸、毒物泄漏事故 ,尽管其起因和影响不尽相同 ,但都有一个共同的特征 :其根源是存在大量的易燃、易爆、有毒物质或具有引发灾难事故的能量。重大危险源同重大事故隐患是两个既有联系又有区别的概念 ,前者强调设备、设施、场所中存在或固有的危险物质 (能量 )的多少 ,后者则可以认为是出现明显缺陷 (人的不安全行为 ,物的不安全状态或管理上的缺陷 )的重大危险源。从重大事故隐患治理到重大危险源普查 (申报 )、监控是预防重大事故理论与技术的进步 ,是从源头抓预防 ,是落实预防为主 ,关口前移的具体体现 ,也是国家安全生产法律、法规的强制要求。笔者论述了重大危险源监控、重大事故隐患治理与重大事故预防之间的区别与联系 ,用事故是能量意外释放的观点 ,论述了安全是相对的、危险是永存的、事故是可以预防的 ;分析了建立重大危险源监控体系与重大事故预防控制体系的几大要素 ,即危险源辨识、评价、分级管理与监控 ,应急救援等。