Setting Site Specific Critical Loads: An Approach using Endorsement Theory and Dempster–Shafer

There is an increasing demand from conservation agencies for site-specific critical loads (CL); unfortunately, there is often very little specific information on a site to determine the important parameters needed to calculate the CL or on the spatial location of the “designated feature” in a site. Determining the most appropriate CL therefore involves using expert judegement to make decisions with incomplete and uncertain information. Endorsement Theory (Cohen, 1985) and Dempster–Shafer statistics (Dempster, 1967; Shafer, 1976) are, respectively, a decision-theoretic and a statistical technique for reasoning under those conditions (uncertainty and incompletness). A key reason for applying these techniques is that they make expert opinion explicit and available for scrutiny. Both techniques have been applied to the problem of setting an appropriate site specific CL, using heathland sites as a case study. Inital findings are encouraging; the uncertainty in expert judgement is made explict, the end results are intuitively reasonable and the methodology apparently acceptable to decision makers.     

Leading indicators of safety in virtual organizations

A primary purpose in measuring safety is to develop intervention strategies to avoid future accidents. Recognizing signals before an accident occurs offers the potential for improving safety, and many organizations have sought to develop programs to identify and benefit from alerts, signals and prior indicators. In this paper, we address the challenge of identifying and evaluating leading indicators of safety in virtual organizations–organizations comprised of multiple, distributed members, temporarily linked together for competitive advantage, that share common value chains and business processes supported by distributed information technology. We begin by discussing risk propensity in virtual organizations and leading indicators of safety. We then describe a pilot study to identify leading indicators for one safety-critical system, and use the results of that study and the literature just described to propose an approach to developing leading indicators in virtual organizations.     

基于GIS的铁路行车事故救援系统研究

笔者扼要探讨了构建基于GIS的铁路行车事故救援系统的相关理论和方法 ,提出了该系统的设计目标、功能结构、体系结构以及空间数据库设计的简要准则和空间数据的输入方法。笔者还介绍了结合实际科研项目 ,开发的大秦线事故救援辅助决策支持系统。该系统具有以下几方面的特点 :在以工务信息为主体的基础上 ,实现了车、机、工、电、辆各部门主要业务信息以及事故救援预案信息的初步整合 ;实现了线路录像按里程点播以及录像与线路设备综合图的联动 ;实现了事故救援的辅助决策支持 ,提供了一个可以扩展的理想平台。     

The transtheoretical model of change in adolescents: implications for injury prevention

INTRODUCTION: Many injury prevention interventions require changes in human behavior to reduce self-risk or risk to others. Promising injury prevention interventions may be discarded if they lack power to create a significant difference in outcomes when judging their ability to "move a person from nonaction or negative action to positive action (safety)." The transtheoretical model of change (TMC) allows greater sensitivity in detecting along the change process where an intervention may be effective. The stages of change consist of precontemplation, contemplation, preparation, action, maintenance, and termination. Change is not viewed as an "all or none phenomenon." METHOD: Use of the TMC was examined using a quasiexperimental, cross-over design involving high school agriculture students enrolled in 21 schools in Kentucky (n=9), Iowa (n=7), and Mississippi (n=5). A series of physical and narrative simulations (safety training exercises) were developed with a focus on preventing amputation, spinal cord injury, hypersensitivity pneumonitis, and noise-induced hearing loss. Contemplation and action, as part of the TMC, were measured using a 10-item, Likert-type, stages of change (SOC) instrument comprised of two subscales (reliability coefficients were.88 and.81, respectively). The final sample consisted of 790 students (373 treatment and 417 control). RESULTS: There was a significant group effect for both contemplation, F(1,732)=197.4; p<.0001, and action, F(1,730)=106.1; p<.0001. A convenience sample of 29 of the participating students was selected for follow-up farm visits 1 year postparticipation. Of these students, 25 (86%) had made safety behavior changes in their farm work. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The use of the TMC model can provide researchers with greater precision in examining intervention effectiveness in promoting change.     

Rate of occupational accidents in the mining industry since 1950--a successful approach to prevention policy

This paper deals with the decrease in the rate of accident insurance claims in the German mining industry over the last five decades. It intends to show that this process is above all the result of a prevention policy where companies and the body responsible for the legal accident insurance in the mining industry, the Bergbau-Berufsgenossenschaft (BBG), work hand in hand. A system like the German accident insurance scheme, combining prevention, rehabilitation, and compensation, enables successful and modern safety and health measures.     

事故定性分析与事故定量预测

分析了影响事故预测准确的原因,综述了国内外许多学者在事故预测方面所做的努力。指出今后事故预测工作的主要途径是由安全系统工程专家建立计算机支持的决策支持系统(DSS),由安全专家灵活运用这个系统中的计算机辅助研究方法(CAR)。     

人因事故纵深防御系统模型

复杂社会技术系统发展的特征对系统中人因产生了极大的影响。对该系统中人因事故的防范采取基于多米诺骨牌原理的对策已难奏效 ,而须采用技术手段、组织手段、文化手段融为一体的纵深防御策略。笔者提出并建立了一个主动型人因事故纵深防御系统模型 ,它包含 5个阶段 :方针确立、预测分析、事故减少策略、运行、反馈 ,突出主动去探查与辨识可能的人因事故 ,并采取技术、组织和文化相结合的措施达到减少和预防事故的目的。     

论安全管理改革的几个深层次问题

论述了安全管理改革的几个带普遍性的和需要从理论上解决的问题。提出了“九五”期和２０１０ 年期间的安全管理体制、运行机制、实行方法改革和企业安全管理改革等方面必须向深层次过渡，以尽快结束新旧体制交替中的磨和冲突所带来的矛盾     

一起有机过氧化物爆炸事故的调查和分析

阐述一起重大爆炸伤亡事故的现场调查和原因分析，介绍如何通过人证物证材料，用鱼刺图法找出可能引起事故的诸原因，逐项加以分析，将与人证或物证材料相矛盾的原因子以排除，最后剩下无法排除亦即能与人证物证相符的那个原因，就是事故的真正原因。笔者是这起事故调查专家组组长，取证和数据可靠。     

中国兵器工业事故的分布特点

兵器工业事故容易受噪声影响。在时序上发生爆炸事故和机械伤害事故的事件明显地受社会状态的影响，社会混乱则事件数上升。各类爆炸物的事故与季节存在明显依赖关系，但是机械伤害事故与季节的关系不明显。本文提供了１６种事故的季节分布图。