事故致因理论的比较分析

本文对事故致因理论进行了总结并对其优缺点进行了介绍,对一些主要的事故致因理论进行了比较,分析了其异同,提出了各自的特点和适用条件,并对其理论发展前景进行了展望。运用事故致因理论对具体事故案例进行了分析,找出了事故原因,提出了预防措施。     

An integrated EDIB model for probabilistic risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents

Natural gas pipeline construction is developing rapidly worldwide to meet the needs of international and domestic energy transportation. Meanwhile, leakage accidents occur to natural gas pipelines frequently due to mechanical failure, personal operation errors, etc., and induce huge economic property loss, environmental damages, and even casualties. However, few models have been developed to describe the evolution process of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents (NGPLA) and assess their corresponding consequences and influencing factors quantitatively. Therefore, this study aims to propose a comprehensive risk analysis model, named EDIB (ET-DEMATEL-ISM-BN) model, which can be employed to analyze the accident evolution process of NGPLA and conduct probabilistic risk assessments of NGPLA with the consideration of multiple influencing factors. In the proposed integrated model, event tree analysis (ET) is employed to analyze the evolution process of NGPLA before the influencing factors of accident evolution can be identified with the help of accident reports. Then, the combination of DEMATEL (Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) and ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) is used to determine the relationship among accident evolution events of NGPLA and obtain a hierarchical network, which can be employed to support the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) model. The prior conditional probabilities of the BN model were determined based on the data analysis of 773 accident reports or expert judgment with the help of the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Finally, the developed BN model was used to conduct accident evolution scenario analysis and influencing factor sensitivity analysis with respect to secondary accidents (fire, vapor cloud explosion, and asphyxia or poisoning). The results show that ignition is the most critical influencing factor leading to secondary accidents. The occurrence time and occurrence location of NGPLA mainly affect the efficiency of emergency response and further influence the accident consequence. Meanwhile, the weight ranking of economic loss, environmental influence, and casualties on social influence is determined with respect to NGPLAs.     

Exploring co-management theory: prospects for sociobiology and reciprocal altruism

Co-management has gained prominence due to the sustained interest in participatory forms of natural resource management. While theoretical development posed an initial challenge, it has become an integral part of the co-management literature. This paper comprehensively explores co-management theory. It begins with an investigation of theory itself. The major elements of theory (concepts, variables and relational propositions) are described and a typology of theoretical statements (formats) is conceptualized. Co-management theory is subsequently charted according to the four schemes (modelling, propositional, analytical and meta-theoretical) which make up the typology. Given the maturing nature of the co-management literature and the absence of any meta-theoretical schemes, we examine the central and underlying assumption of co-operation through the science of sociobiology. Reciprocal altruism is pursued to explain why non-kin co-operate, and is adapted to elucidate the potentials and pitfalls of co-management. This meta-theory enriches understanding of co-management, provides guidance to the other theoretical schemes, and offers a foundational basis upon which construction of subtle predications is possible.     

The role of perceived effectiveness of policy measures in predicting recycling behaviour in Hong Kong

Hong Kong is a compact and ‘land-hungry’ city where recycling has become an important measure for treating waste and reducing the demand on the limited landfills. The objectives of this paper are to extend the model of recycling attitude and behaviour to explain the relationship between perceived policy effectiveness and recycling behaviour. Previous studies on recycling attitude and behaviour had widely adopted the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) and the norm activation model (NAM), and drawn policy implications from them. Nevertheless, little research has been conducted to investigate the role of perceived effectiveness of policy measures in predicting recycling behaviour. To address this, a model that integrates the TPB and NAM was proposed in this study, and a street survey was conducted to investigate the case. The results illustrate that recycling intention is influenced by subjective norms, perceived behavioural control, moral norms, and awareness of consequences, as well as a newly proposed construct, namely perceived policy effectiveness. The study proved self-reported recycling behaviour (direct behaviour) and support for policy measures (indirect behaviour) are influenced by recycling intention. All in all the Government should provide more recycling bins, guidelines on recycling activities, and should accent what it has been doing to facilitate and encourage recycling.     

环境污染事故调查诊断中的因果关系分析

因果关系分析与确定是整个环境污染事故调查诊断的核心，探讨了环境污染事故处理中因果关系的特点，因果关系分析基本原则和内容，因果关系分析的基本步骤，并简介环境污染事故中因果关系推定原则和环境暴露分析方法。     

中国煤矿工人体能负荷、疲劳与工伤事故

煤矿井下事故对矿工威胁很大，体力负荷过重而导致疲劳是引起事故不可忽视的原因。测定不同工种井下矿工的体能负荷情况，并根据ＦＩＸ疲劳指数的测定，分析矿工劳动负荷与工伤事故发生之间的关系。研究表明，在疲劳状态下事故发生的危险性增加；劳动负荷越重，疲劳越重相对的事故发生率也越高。减轻疲劳对预防事故发生与保证工作安全具有很重要的意义     

基于虚拟现实技术的事故分析方法

阐述了虚拟现实技术在民航安全方面的应用前景和重要意义 ,并应用于飞行事故分析。通过建立事故模型 ,笔者对飞行中相对应的人—机关系进行描述。这些关系对事故原因分析是十分重要的。在这个框架下实现了三维模型动画显示 ,并利用计算机多媒体技术 ,实现真实感图形动态显示和音效合成 ,虚拟环境和立体显示 ,展现亲历事故的真实效果     

DETERMINATION OF SEDIMENT YIELD BY TRANSFERRING RAINFALL DATA1

ABSTRACT: A methodology for obtaining the optimal design value to allow for sediment storage in a reservoir is presented for the situation where no data on sediment loads in the incoming streams are available. Information concerning the amount of sediment delivered to the reservoir over its life-time is obtained by a sediment yield model which uses data on rainfall amount and duration obtained from a nearby experimental watershed. Bayesian Decision Theory is used to obtain the optimal storage requirements in order to consider the natural variation of rainfall and the sampling error due to the short rainfall record available. The normally difficult calculations involved were made tractable by the use of simplifications and approximations valid in the context of the problem. Results show that sediment storage requirements can be calculated in this manner and that consideration of the uncertainties involved leads to a storage requirement substantially larger than that calculated without such consideration.     

南方涝渍地区退田还渔的一个实例分析

以江汉平原四湖涝渍地区的一个经围湖造田形成的典型农业微域为研究对象,在对其土壤和作物生长状况进行调查的基础上,探讨了退田还渔的必要性与具体方案。结果表明,对小型湖泊通过围湖造田所形成的农业微域,在人工排水和土地平整不充分的情况下,其地貌和土壤还残留有原有湖泊的影响,处于原湖泊低处的土壤表现出明显的沼泽化和严重潜育化的特征。在该地区种植水稻产量比正常地区减产达16%～26.8%。利用数量化理论Ⅰ确定了该地区适宜退田还渔的具体位置和面积。按照这一方案实施的结果,该地区从1997～2001年的5年中精养鱼塘面积增加9倍,养鱼的效益比种植水稻高5～10倍,还减轻了该地区夏季和冬季的排水压力。     

永安火电厂人为继电保护不正确动作事故分析及预防对策

通过历年来永安火电厂继电保护人为不正确动作事故情况,进行原因分析,并采取一系列措施,取得了较好效果。