跨区域环境治理中地方政府间的博弈分析

地方政府作为利益主体面临着经济发展和环境保护的双重压力,在环境事务的合作治理中,为争取自身利益的最大化展开博弈。文章运用博弈论的理论工具,从动态的、微观的角度分析跨区域环境事务中地方政府间的利益博弈过程和理性决策行为,并为区域间环境事务的合作和交流提出合理建议,以期为我国跨区域环境监管制度、机制的建设和完善提供了理论参考。     

Investigating the effectiveness of safety countermeasures at highway-rail at-grade crossings using a competing risk model

Introduction: Highway-rail at-grade crossings (HRGCs) are critical locations where a railway and a roadway intersect with one another. Crashes at those locations often result in fatalities and economic and social damages due to the impacts on both road and rail users. The main purpose of countermeasures at HRGCs is to permit safe and efficient rail and highway operations. Method: Countermeasures at highway-rail grade crossings (HRGCs) considered in this study include all traffic control devices and other warning and barrier devices at or on approaches to crossings. In general, active devices are commonly accepted as more effective countermeasures than passive devices. However, many of the previous effectiveness studies are either at the project level or were conducted without considering the before-improvement condition. This study focuses on the network-level marginal effectiveness of countermeasures on crash rate and severity levels during the 29-year study period from 1990 to 2018 by fully considering before-improvement control levels. A competing risk model (CRM) is able to accommodate the competing nature of crash severities as multiple outcomes from the same event of interest, which is crash occurrence in this study. Subsequently, CRM is used in this study as an integrated one-step estimation approach that investigates both crash frequency and severity likelihood over time. Results: The study findings indicate that adding audible devices to crossings already equipped with gates will result in a considerable annual decline in crash occurrence likelihood (0.25%). The same device installed at crossings already controlled by gates and flashing lights results in less reduction in crash occurrence likelihood of 0.14%. Moreover, adding a stop sign to the active crossing controls of gates, standard flashing lights, and audible devices will lead to a decrease in the probability of crash occurrence and severe crashes (injury and fatal). However, adding stop signs to crossings equipped only with crossbucks will increase the crash occurrence.     

The acceptance of personal protective equipment among Hong Kong construction workers: An integration of technology acceptance model and theory of planned behavior with risk perception and safety climate

Introduction: The phenomenon that construction workers do not use personal protective equipment (PPE) is a major reason for the high occurrence frequency of accidents in the construction industry. However, little efforts have been made to quantitatively examine the factors influencing construction workers’ acceptance of PPE. Method: In the current study, a PPE acceptance model for construction workers (PAMCW) was proposed to address the noted need. The PAMCW incorporates the technology acceptance model, theory of planned behavior, risk perception, and safety climate for explaining construction worker acceptance of PPE. 413 construction workers participated in this study to fill out a structured questionnaire. The PAMCW was analyzed using structural equation modeling. Results: Results provide evidence of the applicability of the technology acceptance model and theory of planned behavior to the PPE acceptance among construction workers. The positive influence of safety climate and risk perception-severity on attitude toward using PPE was significant. Safety climate positively influences perceived usefulness. Risk perception-worry and unsafe was found to positively affect intention to use PPE. Practical Applications: Practical suggestions for increasing construction workers’ use of PPE are also discussed.     

Investigative consequence analysis: A case study research of beirut explosion accident

Around 15:00 GMT on August 4th, an explosion occurred in the warehouse facility storing Ammonium Nitrate (AN) at Beirut port, Lebanon. The explosion resulted in more than 178 fatalities and injured more than 6500 people, and also left an estimated 300,000 people homeless and registered as an equivalent to a 3.3 magnitude earth quake. The accident was considered to be the largest of its kind and the most severe anthropological disaster of the decade, the financial loss the nation was subjected to post the explosion was estimated to be around $ 15 billion as informed by the governor. The storage conditions of ammonium nitrate at Beirut port is not definitively known to anyone, and there is no documentation provided so far from the authorities regarding the same. This work focuses on the investigation & consequence analysis of the explosion using TNT equivalent approach. The overpressure and the impulse obtained from TNT calculations are used in probit models to assess the damages caused on human beings and structures. The results obtained in this investigative approach are then utilized to provide an analytical inference relative to the damage proxy map reported by the advance rapid imaging analysis team from NASA. Also, this work examines the existing standards, fire safety measures and legal regulations for ammonium nitrate facilities in the region. AN explosion during storage like other fire and explosion accidents are definitely preventable owing to the technological advancements and developments to prevent or extinguish controllable fires. The significance of this work relates to the methods for calculation of consequences of explosion that are happening due to the storage of highly hazardous explosive materials in excessive quantities and insists the necessity of incorporating adequate safety measures while storing such reactive and hazardous materials.     

On the need for system-theoretic hazard analysis in the process industries

Most process hazard analysis (PHA) studies today are conducted using traditional methods such as the hazard and operability study (HAZOP). Traditional methods are based on a chain-of-events model of accident causality. Current models of accident causality are based on systems theory and provide a more complete representation of the causal factors involved in accidents. Consequently, it is logical to expect that PHA methods should reflect these models, that is, system-theoretic hazard analysis (STHA) should be used. Indeed, system-theoretic process analysis (STPA) has been developed as such a method. STPA has been used in a variety of industries but, at this time, it has not gained acceptance by the process industries. This article explores the reasons for this situation. Expectations for PHA in the process industries are examined and issues for the application of STPA in the process industries are discussed. It is concluded that a variety of matters must be addressed before STPA can be considered as a viable PHA method for the process industries and the case for the use of STHA in the process industries is not yet proven.     

Implementation and evaluation of the Safety Element Method at four mining sites

The Safety Element Method (SEM) is a method for improvements of safety results and safety approaches in the Norwegian mining industry. The method is developed by users and researchers in co-operation. The main approach of the method is that a group of organisational members assesses the current and desired situation for their own organisation within defined areas. Based on this assessment they work out a strategy and action plan to reach the internal goals for desired achievement, i.e. the desired situation defined. This article presents the implementation of the method in four mining companies and evaluates the method for its construct validity, criterion validity, face validity, how the method functions and is accepted among the users. The results show that the opinions regarding the experiences with the method are, on the whole, positive. The method is regarded as a valuable approach towards safety improvements. Subjective assessments play a prominent role in SEM, but these assessments are supported by an extensive review of empirical data such as accident reports, interview results and a questionnaire. This means that the internal assessments correspond well to the safety results of the companies and also to the independent external reviews carried out by the researcher.     

永安火电厂人为继电保护不正确动作事故分析及预防对策

通过历年来永安火电厂继电保护人为不正确动作事故情况,进行原因分析,并采取一系列措施,取得了较好效果。     

浅谈建设监理中的安全控制

目前我国大中型建设项目和国家重点工程都实行了建设监理制,在控制工程质量、安全、造价和工期等方面均取得了很大成效。本文阐述了建设监理中安全控制的内容,并针对施工中的不安全因素提出了预防对策。     

石油化工项目环境风险评价实例分析

环境风险评价是石油化工项目环境影响评价的一项重要内容。笔者以某拟建沥青厂为例,利用有关事故统计资料类比分析和世界银行推荐的爆炸危害关系式,对石油化工项目环境风险半定量评价进行了初步探讨。结果表明,该厂发生泄漏事故不会波及外环境,爆炸事故将造成厂区严重破坏并对局地大气环境产生一定影响。      

全球低碳减排的合作竞争及其博弈格局分析

在全球围绕"低碳"减排博弈的背景下,从合作竞争的角度,分析国际低碳减排过程中的多个缔约国家之间的合作竞争行为及其动态平衡过程。重点用博弈论的相关原理对国际低碳减排市场背后的多个利益群体做一个全局性的分析,对全球低碳减排过程中的一些利益争夺现象进行解释,试图揭露出全球低碳减排博弈背后各个利益群体的谋划与动机;最后提醒中国在下一轮的低碳减排博弈过程中要有所准备。