几种事故预测方法的探讨

本文根据生产单位事故发生的随机性特点,论证了未来时段中事故次数及其时间分布等各项指标,是能够用多种随机数学模型和灰色系统理论来预测的。用非随机的函数模型预測事故是不合适的。给出了几种事故预測方法,并提出了几种值得研究和试用的方法。     

铝生产过程碱烧伤事故及对策

通过对山西铝厂氧化铝分厂5年的碱烧伤事故分析与研究,指出了发生该类事故的原因,提出了在氧化铝生产中预防的对策,对氧化铝生产企业降低碱烧伤事故具有指导意义。     

Preferred surface microscopic geometric features on floors as potential interventions for slip and fall accidents on liquid contaminated surfaces

PROBLEM: Surface roughness affects friction, so selection of floor surfaces with certain roughness characteristics could potentially reduce slip and fall accidents. This article summarizes the preferred surface microscopic geometric features that could increase friction on surfaces covered with liquid contaminants. METHOD: Three types of surface features, represented by the average of the maximum height above the mean line in each cut-off length (R(pm)), the arithmetical average of surface slope (Delta(a)), and the kernel roughness depth (R(k)), are identified as preferred surface microscopic geometric features for a higher friction. The proper settings on the profilometers (instruments used to measure surface roughness) for optimizing these surface parameters are specified. The friction mechanisms involved reveal why these features are more desirable. RESULTS: Although surface roughness is important in determining slipperiness, there is still insufficient information to establish a safety criterion based on roughness; however, the method presented in this paper can readily provide a relative comparison. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The summary presented will help safety professionals properly select new floor surfaces or assess existing floors to reduce slip and fall accidents.     

基于安全流变理论的交通系统事故过程分析

运用事物的安全流变规律分析系统的运行过程 ,指出系统的运行过程符合安全流变规律。通过对交通系统中的不安全因素扰动的分析 ,揭示了交通系统的安全流变特征 ;对传统的事故定义进行了拓展 ,将事故隐患纳入了事故的发展过程 ;提出了交通系统事故安全流变分析方法 ;最后通过一个具体的案例分析了系统事故的安全流变过程。     

石油化工企业事故应急救援预案现状及改进建议

石油化工行业是一个高危行业 ,具有易燃易爆、高温高压、有毒有害的特点 ,发生事故的概率高 ,且后果严重。制定事故应急救援预案是风险控制措施的一个重要组成部分 ,可以有效地防止事故的扩大 ,减轻事故造成的财产和生命损失。笔者主要探讨应急救援管理层面上的问题 ;阐述了我国政府和有关部门在应急救援管理方面的有关规定 ,石化行业的应急救援体系 ;指出了目前事故应急救援预案存在的不完善、不规范 ,应急装备不完备和缺乏社会救援联动机制等问题 ;建议企业和政府联合制定应急预案 :形成企业、地方政府和国家三方事故应急救援联动机制 ,实现统一指挥 ,资源共享 ,协调作战 ,发挥整体应急救援能力。     

An analysis of motorcycle injury and vehicle damage severity using ordered probit models

Problem: Motorcycles constitute about 19% of all motorized vehicles in Singapore and are generally overrepresented in traffic accidents, accounting for 40% of total fatalities. Method: In this paper, an ordered probit model is used to examine factors that affect the injury severity of motorcycle accidents and the severity of damage to the vehicle for those crashes. Nine years of motorcycle accident data were obtained for Singapore through police reports. These data included categorical assessments of the severity of accidents based on three levels. Damage severity to the vehicle was also assessed and categorized into four levels. Categorical data of this type are best analyzed using ordered probit models because they require no assumptions regarding the ordinality of the dependent variable, which in this case is the severity score. Various models are examined to determine what factors are related to increased injury and damage severity of motorcycle accidents. Results: Factors found to lead to increases in the probability of severe injuries include the motorcyclist having non-Singaporean nationality, increased engine capacity, headlight not turned on during daytime, collisions with pedestrians and stationary objects, driving during early morning hours, having a pillion passenger, and when the motorcyclist is determined to be at fault for the accident. Factors leading to increased probability of vehicle damage include some similar factors but also show some differences, such as less damage associated with pedestrian collisions and with female drivers. In addition, it was also found that both injury severity and vehicle damage severity levels are decreasing over time.     

我国安全生产的形势和任务

论述了我国安全生产工作发展概况与安全的关系 ,分析了我国安全生产状况 ;指出了我国安全生产面临的主要难点 ;提出了我国安全生产工作的重任所在 ;笔者认为 ,只要从实际出发 ,坚持改革、标本兼治和技术创新 ,发挥政府、企业、劳动者三方协调机制的作用 ,借鉴和吸收国际成功经验 ,我国安全生产水平是会列于世界先进行列的。     

An integrated EDIB model for probabilistic risk analysis of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents

Natural gas pipeline construction is developing rapidly worldwide to meet the needs of international and domestic energy transportation. Meanwhile, leakage accidents occur to natural gas pipelines frequently due to mechanical failure, personal operation errors, etc., and induce huge economic property loss, environmental damages, and even casualties. However, few models have been developed to describe the evolution process of natural gas pipeline leakage accidents (NGPLA) and assess their corresponding consequences and influencing factors quantitatively. Therefore, this study aims to propose a comprehensive risk analysis model, named EDIB (ET-DEMATEL-ISM-BN) model, which can be employed to analyze the accident evolution process of NGPLA and conduct probabilistic risk assessments of NGPLA with the consideration of multiple influencing factors. In the proposed integrated model, event tree analysis (ET) is employed to analyze the evolution process of NGPLA before the influencing factors of accident evolution can be identified with the help of accident reports. Then, the combination of DEMATEL (Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory) and ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) is used to determine the relationship among accident evolution events of NGPLA and obtain a hierarchical network, which can be employed to support the construction of a Bayesian network (BN) model. The prior conditional probabilities of the BN model were determined based on the data analysis of 773 accident reports or expert judgment with the help of the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Finally, the developed BN model was used to conduct accident evolution scenario analysis and influencing factor sensitivity analysis with respect to secondary accidents (fire, vapor cloud explosion, and asphyxia or poisoning). The results show that ignition is the most critical influencing factor leading to secondary accidents. The occurrence time and occurrence location of NGPLA mainly affect the efficiency of emergency response and further influence the accident consequence. Meanwhile, the weight ranking of economic loss, environmental influence, and casualties on social influence is determined with respect to NGPLAs.     

新西兰无过失伤害的预防、康复和赔偿体制介绍

新西兰意外赔偿局(ACC),是管理新西兰意外事件赔偿的政府机构。ACC计划是对在新西兰境内的公民、居民或临时来访的人提供受伤赔偿的服务。每年在复原、治疗和酬劳补偿等方面要花费十几亿元,为了保证这些服务,ACC从劳动者的薪金、燃油税、政府赞助和投资收入等方面来支付赔偿金,不同行业的工伤赔偿申请比率也不同。另外,ACC建立了培训基金,代替雇主负责对员工的安全与健康培训。虽然这一体制正面临一些私有化和费用不断增加的挑战和困难,但总体来说,ACC体制是适合新西兰的一个优良的方案,比其他国家的体制在管理效率和雇主利益等方面明显显示出优势。     

我国地方煤矿的事故分析及预防对策

概述了我国煤矿事故的现状，对近几年我国地方煤矿的伤亡事故进行了统计分析，探讨了事故发生的原因，提出了预防对策