Dynamic risk assessment using failure assessment and Bayesian theory

To ensure the safety of a process system, engineers use different methods to identify the potential hazards that may cause severe consequences. One of the most popular methods used is quantitative risk assessment (QRA) which quantifies the risk associated with a particular process activity. One of QRA's major disadvantages is its inability to update risk during the life of a process. As the process operates, abnormal events will result in incidents and near misses. These events are often called accident precursors. A conventional QRA process is unable to use the accident precursor information to revise the risk profile. To overcome this, a methodology has been proposed based on the work of Meel and Seider (2006). Similar to Meel and Seider (2006) work, this methodology uses Bayesian theory to update the likelihood of the event occurrence and also failure probability of the safety system. In this paper the proposed methodology is outlined and its application is demonstrated using a simple case study. First, potential accident scenarios are identified and represented in terms of an event tree, next, using the event tree and available failure data end-state probabilities are estimated. Subsequently, using the available accident precursor data, safety system failure likelihood and event tree end-state probabilities are revised. The methodology has been simulated using deterministic (point value) as well as probabilistic approach. This Methodology is applied to a case study demonstrating a storage tank containing highly hazardous chemicals. The comparison between conventional QRA and the results from dynamic failure assessment approach shows the significant deviation in system failure frequency throughout the life time of the process unit.     

一台原油加热炉火管烧损事故原因分析

通过对事故现场的勘察以及对装置缺陷检验与火管材质成分、性能分析,阐述了原油加热炉火管烧损事故发生的起因.分析认为,由于火管金属局部超温引起的,局部超温能够导致金属过烧甚至产生组织相变,能够导致材料力学性能大大降低,当由于局部膨胀所形成的拘束应力、热应力、结构应力与介质压力产生的薄膜应力相叠加所形成的峰值应力高于由于高温...     

突发性环境污染事故的对策

阐述了广西近年来突发性环境污染事故的类型、基本特征及其危害性。提出了相应地对策。指出,有效地预防环境污染事故的发生,提高处理突发性环境污染事故的应变能力,对维护社会稳定,促进环境与经济的协调、健康、持续发展具有重要意义。