Floristics, performance and prognosis of historical trees in the urban forest of Guangzhou City (China)

Outstanding historical trees embedded in cities constitute pertinent environmental assets, yet they are widely threatened in third-world cities. Inadequate understanding of this valuable natural-cum-cultural heritage hinders proper conservation. A case study of Guangzhou in south China evaluated floristic composition, age profile and biomass structure of historical trees, assessed their performance in major habitats (institutional, park and roadside), and established a prognosis for future growth and management. The 348 historical trees examined belonged to only 25 species, vis-à -vis 254 trees in the entire urban forest, dominated by five species and native members. Roadside had more trees, followed by institutional and park, with merely the most common four species shared by all habitats. The limited commonality reflected tree-performance differentiation by habitats exerting selection pressure on species. The institutional growth-regime was more conducive to nurturing high-caliber specimens, whereas park is less capable. Individual species achievement by habitats, derived from tree-count ranking and relative-abundance indices, could inform species choice and tree conservation. Few trees exceeded 300 years of age in the millennium-old city, echoing a history of intense tree—city conflicts. Potential life-span, trunk and crown diameters indicated ample opportunities for further expansion of biomass and landscape impacts, which would be straitjacketed by the tightening urban fabric.     

环杭州湾地区城市扩张的遥感动态监测

以环杭州湾地区为研究对象,应用决策树和形状指数相结合的方法从TM影像中分别提取了2003年和2006年的城镇用地信息,并对杭州市、绍兴市和宁波市的城市扩张特点进行了分析和研究。通过精度检验,城镇用地总体Kappa系数都在0.87以上,说明该方法提取城镇信息是行之有效的。2003年环杭州湾地区的城镇用地面积为914.04km²,2006年为1 286.1km²,4年间城镇用地净增了372.06km²,主要城市用地净增了192.6km²;杭州市、绍兴市、宁波市市区面积增加了43.7 km²;而其它县城与开发区增加了145.6 km²;说明小城市在环杭州湾地区城市化进程中处于主导地位;而大城市的作用则相对较小。杭州市、绍兴市城市扩张明显,其中尤以杭州市下沙区和绍兴市袍江工业园区的扩张最显著;宁波市城市扩张最小,特别是余姚城区。扩张方向上,杭州市主要向西北和北面扩张;宁波市在各个方向上的扩张比较平均。     

石油化工项目环境风险评价实例分析

环境风险评价是石油化工项目环境影响评价的一项重要内容。笔者以某拟建沥青厂为例,利用有关事故统计资料类比分析和世界银行推荐的爆炸危害关系式,对石油化工项目环境风险半定量评价进行了初步探讨。结果表明,该厂发生泄漏事故不会波及外环境,爆炸事故将造成厂区严重破坏并对局地大气环境产生一定影响。      

园林树木保健问题的探讨

本文论述了影响树木健康的原因和园林树木保健措施。     

长江干线船舶碰撞原因的故障树分析一以武汉海事局辖区水域为例

以2007年武汉海事局辖区船舶碰撞资料为基础,利用故障树分析方法构建该水域船舶碰撞故障树,进行定性、定链分析,得到包括航行疏于戒备、车舵控制失误、疏于了望等14个主要危险因素及各因素的相关事故数。在故障树分析的基础上,构建布尔代数和最小割集,计算各危险旧素的概率重要度,以衡精各危险因素发生概率的变化给碰撞事故发生概率带来的影响;计算临界重要度,从敏感度和概率双重角度衡量每个危险因素的重要度。通过分析发现应急操作不当、违反其他规定、航行疏于戒备、违反分道通航、疲劳驾驶等人为因素是引起该水域船舶碰撞的重要原因。建议船公司重视船员应急培训,提高船员应急处置能力,海事管理机构加大相关法规宣传力度和监管力度。     

基于BN的FTA在通用航空风险评价中的应用

针对事故树分析法(FTA)在风险评价中的局限性,采用以事故树为基础建立的贝叶斯网络(BN)风险模型,对通用航空中的两机空中相撞事故进行分析和推理,对事故模型进行改进和修正时,注重基事件的多态性和事件间的逻辑合理性。根据贝叶斯推理得出的数据,找到了事故的主要致因。结果表明,基于BN的FTA既能向前预测顶事件的发生概率,又能向后诊断基本事件的后验概率,可以更好地对通用航空风险进行评价。     

Determination and potential importance of diterpene (kaur-16-ene) emitted from dominant coniferous trees in Japan

Reactive volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are known to affect atmospheric chemistry. Biogenic VOCs (BVOCs) have a significant impact on regional air quality due to their large emission rates and high reactivities. Diterpenes (most particularly, kaur-16-ene) were detected in all of the 205 enclosure air samples collected over multiple seasons at two different sites from Cryptomeria japonica and Chamaecyparis obtusa trees, the dominant coniferous trees in Japan,. The emission rate of kaur-16-ene, was determined to be from 0.01 to 7.1 μg dwg⁻¹ h⁻¹ (average: 0.61 μg dwg⁻¹ h⁻¹) employing branch enclosure measurements using adsorbent sampling followed by solid phase-liquid extraction techniques. The emission rate was comparable to that of monoterpenes, which is known major BVOC emissions, collected from the same branches. In addition, total emission of kaur-16-ene at 30 °C was estimated to exceed that of total anthropogenic VOC emissions.     

基于“事故树-层次分析法”的高校学生宿舍火灾风险分析

高校学生宿舍的消防安全是高校安全管理的重要内容之一。对学生宿舍的消防进行风险分析对高校的安全管理具有重要意义。本文采用层次分析法对高校宿舍的消防安全进行风险分析。在进行层次分析法之前,引入了事故树,通过事故树寻求指标层中各类重要因素,从而提高了层次分析的准确性和有效性。分析结果表明：采用事故树-层次分析法,可定量地分析各个因素对建筑火灾风险的影响大小,对制定建筑火灾的防范措施具有一定的指导意义。分析结果表明：消防设施、火灾荷载和安全疏散设备对学生宿舍的火灾安全有着重要的影响,应该引起安全管理人员的重视。     

Effects of an Exotic Plant Invasion on Native Understory Plants in a Tropical Dry Forest

Abstract: The dry forests of southern India, which are endangered tropical ecosystems and among the world's most important tiger (Panthera tigris) habitats, are extensively invaded by exotic plants. Yet, experimental studies exploring the impacts of these invasions on native plants in these forests are scarce. Consequently, little is known about associated implications for the long‐term conservation of tigers and other biodiversity in these habitats. I studied the impacts of the exotic plant Lantana camara on understory vegetation in a dry‐forest tiger habitat in southern India. I compared the richness, composition, and abundance of tree seedlings, herbs, and shrubs and the abundance of grass among plots in which Lantana was cleared or left standing. These plots were distributed across two blocks—livestock free and livestock grazed. Removal of Lantana had an immediate positive effect on herb–shrub richness in the livestock‐free block, but had no effect on that of tree seedlings in either livestock block. Tree‐seedling and herb–shrub composition differed significantly between Lantana treatment and livestock block, and Lantana removal significantly decreased survival of tree seedlings. Nevertheless, the absence of trees, in any stage between seedling and adult, indicates that Lantana may stall tree regeneration. Lantana removal decreased the abundance of all understory strata, probably because forage plants beneath Lantana are less accessible to herbivores, and plants in Lantana‐free open plots experienced greater herbivory. Reduced access to forage in invaded habitats could negatively affect ungulate populations and ultimately compromise the ability of these forests to sustain prey‐dependent large carnivores. Additional research focused on understanding and mitigating threats posed by exotic plants may be crucial to the long‐term protection of these forests as viable tiger habitats.     

Genetic Bottlenecks Driven by Population Disconnection

Abstract: Connectivity among populations plays a crucial role in maintaining genetic variation at a local scale, especially in small populations affected strongly by genetic drift. The negative consequences of population disconnection on allelic richness and gene diversity (heterozygosity) are well recognized and empirically established. It is not well recognized, however, that a sudden drop in local effective population size induced by such disconnection produces a temporary disequilibrium in allelic frequency distributions that is akin to the genetic signature of a demographic bottleneck. To document this effect, we used individual‐based simulations and empirical data on allelic richness and gene diversity in six pairs of isolated versus well‐connected (core) populations of European tree frogs. In our simulations, population disconnection depressed allelic richness more than heterozygosity and thus resulted in a temporary excess in gene diversity relative to mutation drift equilibrium (i.e., signature of a genetic bottleneck). We observed a similar excess in gene diversity in isolated populations of tree frogs. Our results show that population disconnection can create a genetic bottleneck in the absence of demographic collapse.