Adaptive management: Promises and pitfalls

Proponents of the scientific adaptive management approach argue that it increases knowledge acquisition rates, enhances information flow among policy actors, and provides opportunities for creating shared understandings. However, evidence from efforts to implement the approach in New Brunswick, British Columbia, Canada, and the Columbia River Basin indicates that these promises have not been met. The data show that scientific adaptive management relies excessively on the use of linear systems models, discounts nonscientific forms of knowledge, and pays inadequate attention to policy processes that promote the development of shared understandings among diverse stakeholders. To be effective, new adaptive management efforts will need to incorporate knowledge from multiple sources, make use of multiple systems models, and support new forms of cooperation among stakeholders.     

基于神经网络的重大危险源动态分级研究

利用自组织神经网络对重大危险源进行动态分级研究，介绍了神经网络的模式聚类即分级法的自组织学习过程和算法，克服了以往危险源分级方法的某些局限性。在计算机上进行的模拟计算表明：基于自组织神经网络的重大危险源动态分级方法是合理可行的     

青藏铁路救援指挥系统的研究

通过对青藏铁路特点及运营模式的分析,提出构建青藏铁路事故救援指挥系统的重要性。结合青藏铁路信息化总体规划,在充分利用青藏铁路各信息系统及通讯网络基础上,利用地理信息系统(GIS)技术和无线通讯技术,建设具有指挥、控制、通信及情报(C3I)功能的青藏铁路事故救援指挥系统。提出了系统应达到的目标功能,结合青藏铁路生产作业实际情况,给出了系统实现的信息流程、体系结构,并开发了原型系统。系统将青藏铁路多源信息整合并结合GIS技术以直观的电子地图、图像等方式展示出来,实现了救援预案管理和智能化查询、匹配;并通过应急无线通讯设备实现事故现场视频、图像实时播放及指挥调度与事故现场间的语音双向通讯;同时可建立事故数据库,为统计报告和事故分析服务。     

对SARS疫情预测与控制的数学模型研究——一种基于一般流传病模型的改进方法

笔者从一个简单的传染病数学模型着手 ,在考虑了SARS病毒的规律和具体控制方法的影响因素后 ,对一般传染病疫情的确定型预测模型进行改进 ,并引入 ρ、α及 β等随机系数 ,从疫情控制前、控制后、控后改进来建立对疫情预测和控制的数学模型 ,从而更加精确地刻画出SARS的发展和传播规律、人们的控制方法与其控制效果之间的关系 ,给出了模型的算法 ,并对其内涵及与疫情控制的关系给以评述。最后 ,用某地区实际数据验证了控后改进型数学模型与疫情发展规律符合 ,为定量研究这类传染病提供了简明实用的定量分析方法 ,具有一定的现实意义。     

陆上石油勘探开发企业危害辨识与风险控制浅析

本文针对陆上石油勘探开发企业作业过程中存在的主要风险,分析了各作业环节包括的主要危害因素,提出风险控制的方法,以确保有效控制石油勘探开发作业过程中的各类风险.     

Steady-state analyses for reactive distillation control: An MTBE case study

An approach, based purely on steady-state analyses, for synthesizing effective control structures for reactive distillation (RD) columns is presented. The main idea is to analyze the steady-state relationships between the manipulated (input) variables and the potential controlled (output) variables to identify input–output (IO) pairings that are sensitive and avoid steady-state multiplicities providing a large range of nearly linear operating region around the base case design. Traditional SISO control loops are then implemented using these IO pairings to obtain control structures that maintain the column near the design product purity and conversion for the anticipated primary disturbances. The Niederlinski Index is used to eliminate dynamically unstable pairings in control structures with multiple loops. The approach is demonstrated on an example MTBE RD column. The impact of steady-state multiplicities on control structure design is highlighted.     

Information Network Topologies for Enhanced Local Adaptive Management

We examined the principal effects of different information network topologies for local adaptive management of natural resources. We used computerized agents with adaptive decision algorithms with the following three fundamental constraints: (1) Complete understanding of the processes maintaining the natural resource can never be achieved, (2) agents can only learn by experimentation and information sharing, and (3) memory is limited. The agents were given the task to manage a system that had two states: one that provided high utility returns (desired) and one that provided low returns (undesired). In addition, the threshold between the states was close to the optimal return of the desired state. We found that networks of low to moderate link densities significantly increased the resilience of the utility returns. Networks of high link densities contributed to highly synchronized behavior among the agents, which caused occasional large-scale ecological crises between periods of stable and high utility returns. A constructed network involving a small set of experimenting agents was capable of combining high utility returns with high resilience, conforming to theories underlying the concept of adaptive comanagement. We conclude that (1) the ability to manage for resilience (i.e., to stay clear of the threshold leading to the undesired state as well as the ability to re-enter the desired state following a collapse) resides in the network structure and (2) in a coupled social–ecological system, the systemwide state transition occurs not because the ecological system flips into the undesired state, but because managers lose their capacity to reorganize back to the desired state. An erratum to this article can be found at .     

Systems thinking in a gas explosion accident – lessons learned from Taiwan

On July 31, 2014, at around 23:57, several huge explosions occurred that lasted for 2 h in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan. As a result of a gas leak from a ruptured underground pipeline, the catastrophic incident destroyed more than 6 km of roads, killed 32 people, injured 321 people, and damaged 3259 buildings. Pipeline explosions have been reported as a repeatedly occurring problem, indicating that (1) complex systems are difficult to manage and control, and (2) humans are unable to effectively learn from experiences of accidents. Initial analyses results reveal that root causes of this incident were a combination of a series of complex chain reactions, which eventually led to propylene leakage and explosion. This is a systematic problem, which can hardly be investigated or analyzed by traditional research approaches. Based on the investigation reports and “systems thinking” method, this study develops causal loop diagrams for the Kaohsiung gas explosion to explore the root causes of the disaster. The research results indicate that (1) this pipeline explosion incident was the result of the chain reactions and was the output of a complex system; (2) the mental model of “production first” and “experience gap” were the root causes of the disaster; and (3) to achieve a higher safety standard, continuous education to improve the mental model of “safety first and safety over production” are essential. The findings of this study may contribute toward the improvement of the standard operating procedure for disaster management and preventing similar incidents in the future.     

适应性环境管理模式在大型赛事筹备中的应用（上）——管理模式构建

针对我国环境保护行政管理存在的直线式管理、缺乏弹性等问题,将适应性管理的理论和方法引入环境管理领域,提出适应性环境管理的概念和管理模式,通过构建基于AHP（层次分析法）的适应性环境管理绩效评估体系,在环境管理中对各项任务进行跟踪管理和绩效评估,反馈于阶段性目标的制定,从而灵活调整工作方案,最大限度地降低环境管理中的不确定性,保证环境管理总目标的达成.