人口密度对森林火灾发生频率的影响

人类活动是引发森林火灾的主要原因之一，在中国、日本等国家，90％以上的森林火灾是由人为因素引起的。为了量化人类活动对森林火灾的影响，本文基于日本的三级网格系统，对日本全国范围内近年来的森林火灾数据、土地利用率数据和人口密度数据进行了综合分析，研究了人口密度对火灾发生频率的定量影响规律。结果表明：森林火灾发生频率与人口密度之间呈现出幂律关系，经过一步的分析，发现两者之间存在具有边界效应的简单关系，即渐近幂律分布。本文的研究结果对于森林火灾的防治，特别是对于火险的预测具有实用意义。     

华东地区地震目录的完全性分析

按照文献 [1]提出的分析方法 ,对华东地区地震发生率进行了统计修补 ,由此得到华东地区地震发生的概率密度分布。其结果对地震活动性研究和地震危险区的划分具有一定意义。在地震目录分段分析研究中 ,引入了Fisher的时序分割法     

A comparison of overtime patrol stops made inside and out of cluster identified hotspots

Objective: The annual rate of impaired driving crashes in the United States has remained nearly constant over the last decade. While engineers, educators, enforcement, and emergency response personnel have worked diligently in their combined efforts to reduce the loss of life, there is still significant progress to be made. One area of recent interest is the use of data driven enforcement. The basis for data driven enforcement is the use of statistical clustering to identify geographic areas that represent the location of problem identification for various criminal or traffic offenses. In the case of impaired driving fatalities, the clustering represents locations with high rates of impaired driving crashes. Law enforcement officers and supervisors may allocate resources towards more specifically and efficiently addressing problem areas.

Methods: While data driven enforcement has been proven to be an effective tool in addressing crime and traffic safety problems, it has been a slow process for agencies to adopt data driven techniques. This study aims to explore the difference in traffic stops made inside and outside of hotspot identified areas. The study uses data from the Stark County Operating a Vehicle Impaired Task Force between 2013 and 2014.

Results: The analysis determined that stop occurring in hotspot defined areas are more likely to result in impaired driving arrests and seatbelt citations. Additionally it is found that the average cost of impaired driving arrests is significantly cheaper for stops occurring inside of hotspot areas.

Conclusion: Clustering as a means of directing law enforcement efforts are a way to increase the productivity and benefits of law enforcement agencies with limited finances or personnel. From this study it is seen that traffic stops made within defined cluster or hot spot areas are more effective in resulting in OVI arrests.     

Distribution,source, and ecological risk assessment of PAHs among size and density fractions in contaminated sediments from the Yellow River of Henan section

This study investigated particle size and density distributions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in two surface sediments (JZ and KF), collected from the Yellow River of Henan section, China. The concentrations of Σ₁₅PAHs ranged from 35.6 to 45862?ng g^?1 dry wt, which were greatly elevated in coarse particles and low-density fractions. The Σ₁₅PAHs concentrations in low-density fractions were 533 (JZ) and 996 (KF) times higher than those in the corresponding high-density fractions. However, due to relatively less quantities of low-density fractions (0.27–2.33%), most of the PAHs were contributed by the high-density components. For both sediments, the influence factors of PAHs source in the environment were very complex, more so than the level of TOC and BC content. JZ sediment was dominated by 4-ring to 6-ring PAHs (61.5–75.1%), while, 2-ring to 3-ring PAHs were abundant in KF samples (39.8–72.6%). Ratios of specific PAHs reflected PAHs among the size- and density-fraction of each sediment may be contaminated by mixed of pyrolytic and petrogenic origin. Additionally, ecological risk assessment of PAHs suggested that total toxic equivalent values of PAHs in the low-density fractions were much higher than those of the corresponding high-density fractions in the studied area.     

滆湖藻密度的时空分布及驱动因子分析

在2年内分季度调查滆湖浮游植物种群和水环境因子,分析藻密度的空间分布状况以及按时间序列的藻密度变化和浮游植物优势种群变化,分别采用"多元线性逐步回归法"和"偏相关系数法"进行藻密度驱动因子识别。结果表明,滆湖藻密度空间分布趋势为由北向南逐渐升高,年际间季节差异极显著。浮游植物的演替规律为冬、春季节以绿藻和硅藻为主,夏、秋季节蓝藻占绝对优势。通过比较2种统计方法的计算结果,确定全湖及中、南部湖区藻密度的驱动因子是温度和高锰酸盐指数,北部湖区藻密度的驱动因子是温度和硝酸盐氮,所有驱动因子对滆湖藻密度的影响均为正效应。在富营养化严重的滆湖,N,P营养盐已经不再是浮游植物生长的主要驱动因子,从统计方法的角度解释了部分环境因子没有入选为驱动因子的原因,并推断了其他可能的驱动因子。     

Fall-related emergency department visits involving alcohol among older adults

Problem: Falls are the leading cause of injury deaths among adults aged 65 years and older. Characteristics of these falls may vary with alcohol use. Objective: Describe and compare characteristics of older adult fall-related emergency department (ED) visits with indication of alcohol to visits with no indication. Methods: Using nationally-representative 2015 National Electronic Injury Surveillance System-All Injury Program data, we compared demographic characteristics for fall-related ED visits by indication of alcohol consumption. Alcohol-indicated ED visits were matched on age group, sex, treatment month, and treatment day to ED visits with no alcohol indication using a 1:4 ratio and injury characteristics (i.e., diagnosis, body part injured, disposition) were compared. Results and discussion: Of 38,640 ED records, 906 (1.9%) indicated use of alcohol. Fall-related ED visits among women were less likely to indicate alcohol (1.0%) compared to ED visits among men (3.8%). ED visits indicating alcohol decreased with age from 4.1% for those 65–74 years to 1.5% for those 75–84 and <1% for those 85+. After controlling for age-group, sex, and month and day of treatment, 17.0% of ED visits with no alcohol indication had a traumatic brain injury compared to 34.8% of alcohol-indicated ED visits. Practical applications: Alcohol-indicated fall ED visits resulted in more severe head injury than those that did not indicate alcohol. To determine whether alcohol use should be part of clinical risk assessment for older adult falls, more routinely collected data and detailed information on the amount of alcohol consumed at the time of the fall are needed.     

Validity of police-reported alcohol involvement in fatal motor carrier crashes in the United States between 1982 and 2005

Objective

To examine the validity of police-reported alcohol data for drivers involved in fatal motor carrier crashes.

Material and Methods

We determined the availability of blood alcohol concentration (BAC) and police-reported alcohol data on 157,702 drivers involved in fatal motor carrier crashes between 1982 - 2005 using Fatality Analysis and Reporting System (FARS) data. Drivers were categorized as motor carrier drivers if they operated a vehicle with a gross vehicle weight rating of greater than 26,000 pounds. Otherwise, they were classified as non motor carrier drivers. The sensitivity and specificity of police-reported alcohol involvement were estimated for both driver types.

Results

Of the 157,702 drivers, 18% had no alcohol information, 15% had BAC results, 42% had police-reported alcohol data, and 25% had both. Alcohol information varied significantly by driver, crash, and vehicle characteristics. For example, motor carrier drivers were significantly more likely (51%) to have BAC testing results compared to non motor carrier drivers (31%) (p < 0.001). The sensitivity of police-reported alcohol involvement for a BAC level ≥ 0.08 was 83% (95% CI 79%, 86%) for motor carrier drivers and 90% (95% CI 89%, 90%) for non motor carrier drivers. The specificity rates were 96% (95% CI 95%, 96%) and 91% (95% CI 90%, 91%), respectively.

Conclusions

The sensitivity and specificity of police-reported alcohol involvement are reasonably high for drivers involved in fatal motor carrier crashes. Further research is needed to determine the extent to which the accuracy of police-reported alcohol involvement may be overestimated because of verification bias.

Impact on the Industry

Based on the results of this study, the federal government should continue to work with states to strengthen their strategies to increase chemical testing of all drivers involved in fatal crashes.     

废弃中密度纤维板制备活性炭

以磷酸为活化剂、废弃中密度板木粉为原料制备活性炭(AC),采用正交实验得出制备AC的最佳工艺条件:磷酸质量浓度为813.43 g/L,浸渍比(木粉与磷酸的质量比)为4.5:1,浸渍时间为12 h,活化温度为500 ℃,活化时间为2 h.在此条件下AC得率为40.67%,碘吸附值为934.56 mg/g,亚甲基蓝吸附值为172.5 mg/g,焦糖脱色率为100%.采用3 g AC处理150 mL实际水样,COD去除率为84.50%,NH_3-N去除率为61.70%,色度去除率为86.88%,浊度去除率为82.80%,悬浮物去除率为80.98%.     

排口比对污泥淤砂分离器分离效能的影响

污泥淤砂分离器是一种能够使活性污泥中污泥有机质与淤砂分离的设备。为了实现污泥淤砂分离器的结构优化,重点探讨了污泥淤砂分离器最重要的结构参数-排口比K(底流口直径Du与溢流口直径Do之比)对污泥淤砂分离器分离效能的影响。实验结果表明,在排口比从0.32增加到1.0的过程中,分离器处理能力Qi基本保持不变,分流比S、分离效率η和底流污泥ρ(MLVSS)/ρ(MLSS)分别从0.084、24.7%和0.21增加到0.338、41.1%和0.33.4;污泥有机质富集率FMLVSS和淤砂富集率FMLISS分别从1.95和1.35减小到1.22和1.12。富集除砂所需要的K和分离器获得较高的除砂效率η时所需K不一致。污泥淤砂分离器排口比K设计为0.4~0.6时,能够获得较高的分离效率,并实现淤砂的富集排放。     

盐碱池塘底栖动物的初步研究

研究了不同放养模式的高青盐碱池塘底栖动物的种类组成、生物量及其季节变动。结果表明,盐碱池塘底栖动物群落结构简单,主要优势种是羽摇蚊幼虫和奥特开水丝蚓,底栖动物密度和生物量无鱼对照池比养鱼池高得多,平均密度（nar/m^-2）和生物量（ρA/g m^-2）分别为1103（40－2085）m^-2和4.61(0.15-12.91)g m^-2,养地池底栖动物nar/m^-2和ρA/g m^-2分别为54－161m^-1和0.14-0.54g m^-2。底栖动物密度和生物量在春夏之交有一高峰,对盐碱池塘底栖动物种、量特点及其与鱼类捕食和一些生态因子的关系进行了讨论。