长江三角洲地区耕地质量变化的初步研究——以锡山市为例

长江三角洲地区耕地质量变化的监测是区土地可持续利用研究的重点领域。锡山市位于太湖平原北部，其耕地质量变化过程反映了长江三角洲腹地经济发展水平较高地区的耕地现状和发展趋势。本研究以锡山市为典型区，依据第二次土壤普查资料，多年土壤监测数据和有关耕地系统状态的统计数据，结合研究区耕地状况的调查分析，提出了支持压力－状态－响应模型的耕地质量评价指标体系，并据此指标体系分析了该区耕地质量变化趋势。结果表明，该区耕地系统的发展总体上是可控的、有序的、但是耕地系统产出能力的稳定性呈下降趋势，系统高水平投入的维持面临较大的压力。鉴于人口增加和耕地持续减少的态势在很长一段时间内难以逆转，耕地占补的质量差异因素，是该区能否实现耕地总量动态平衡的关键所在。     

长江中游水生生物多样性保护面临的威胁和压力

长江中游地区作为世界上最大的淡水生态区之一,生物多样性保护具有非常特殊的地位和作用。分析了长江中游地区生物多样性保护面临的主要威胁与压力,认为生境破碎萎缩、资源不合理开发利用、水环境污染、外来物种入侵等是生物多样性面临的主要威胁,而传统方式下的经济增长、土地利用粗放、人口增长与贫困、政策与管理等方面存在的问题将是生物多样性保护面临的主要压力。     

考虑气液置换的压回法气井压井过程对井底压力的影响

为在压回法气井压井计算中进一步贴合现场实际情况,提出新的压回法气井压井过程计算方法.在压井过程中,考虑压井液与侵入井筒的气体发生置换,导致井筒流体自上而下分布为液-气液2相-气-气液2相的实际问题,建立压井过程模型,并对井底压力的变化进行计算分析.结果表明:发生气液置换对压回法压井过程井底压力以及注入压力具有明显影响,...     

Social environment versus cycling competency predicting risk-taking in 11- to 13-year-old cyclists in The Netherlands

Abstract

Objectives: From age 12 onwards, cycling injuries begin rising in The Netherlands. A known contributing factor is younger children’s underdeveloped competency to deal with complex and hazardous traffic situations, and their exposure to such situations strongly increases after transitioning to secondary school. Little is known about intentional risk-taking as a contributing factor. In this developmental stage, children become increasingly vulnerable because of intentional risk-taking, affecting their safety and health. The incidence, predictors in the child’s social environment, and trends of such risks are systematically monitored; for instance, for alcohol use, smoking, and cyber bullying. Such monitors do not include risky road behavior. This exploratory field study examined the frequency of intentional risky cycling, its relationship with the perceived social environment, and relative to cycling competency measured as the ability to detect emerging hazards quickly.

Methods: Three hundred thirty-five students between 11 and 13 years of age (51% male) completed computerized tests of hazard perception skill and surveys on crashes, risk-taking, peer pressure, perceived risk-taking by parents or friends, and exposure to risky driving as passenger.

Results: Frequent risk-taking was associated with higher crash frequency. Stepwise regression confirmed that children who more often took risks on the road were also more sensitive to peer pressure, had more often been passengers of risky drivers, had parents and friends who exhibited risky behaviors in traffic more often, and perceived hazards as less dangerous but, in contrast to expectations, did not do worse on the detection of hazards. The predictors explained 28% of the variance in total risk-taking but varied from 6 to 20% depending on the specific risk-taking behavior concerned.

Conclusions: At least 20% of children sometimes or more often take risks in traffic. Children who feel peer pressure to behave in a risky manner, observe parents and friends behaving in a risky manner in traffic, and have been exposed as passengers to risky driving more often take risks in traffic themselves. These results provide support for including items on risky road behavior in health monitors and to design interventions that address the risk factors in the child’s perceived social environment.     

Effects of spatial autocorrelation and sampling design on estimates of protected area effectiveness

Estimating the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) in reducing deforestation is useful to support decisions on whether to invest in better management of areas already protected or to create new ones. Statistical matching is commonly used to assess this effectiveness, but spatial autocorrelation and regional differences in protection effectiveness are frequently overlooked. Using Colombia as a case study, we employed statistical matching to account for confounding factors in park location and accounted for for spatial autocorrelation to determine statistical significance. We compared the performance of different matching procedures—ways of generating matching pairs at different scales—in estimating PA effectiveness. Differences in matching procedures affected covariate similarity between matched pairs (balance) and estimates of PA effectiveness in reducing deforestation. Independent matching yielded the greatest balance. On average 95% of variables in each region were balanced with independent matching, whereas 33% of variables were balanced when using the method that performed worst. The best estimates suggested that average deforestation inside protected areas in Colombia was 40% lower than in matched sites. Protection significantly reduced deforestation, but PA effectiveness differed among regions. Protected areas in Caribe were the most effective, whereas those in Orinoco and Pacific were least effective. Our results demonstrate that accounting for spatial autocorrelation and using independent matching for each subset of data is needed to infer the effectiveness of protection in reducing deforestation. Not accounting for spatial autocorrelation can distort the assessment of protection effectiveness, increasing type I and II errors and inflating effect size. Our method allowed improved estimates of protection effectiveness across scales and under different conditions and can be applied to other regions to effectively assess PA performance.     

不同冲击速度下硬煤的力学特性试验研究

为了研究硬煤破坏过程中的动态力学特性，采用Φ50 mm变截面分离式霍普金森压杆（SHPB）试验系统，对45#钢制薄壁套筒施加环向约束的硬煤试件进行不同加载速率的冲击压缩试验，得到被动围压下轴向应力-应变曲线、径向应力-应变曲线及最大被动围压和冲击速度的关系。研究结果表明:峰值应力、峰值应变随着冲击速度的增大而增大，最大被动围压值与冲击速度呈幂次增长的关系；被动围压下的硬煤试件变形受到限制，试件延性、抗压能力显著提高；随着冲击速度的增大，薄壁套筒对试件的约束也逐渐增大，达到峰值后，冲击速度对被动围压的影响减小，筒壁厚度影响着被动围压效果。     

An ecological economics approach to the management of a multi-purpose coastal wetland

Three interrelated management problems—eutrophication of multiple use shallow lakes, sea level rise and flood risk mitigation and tourism pressures—are analysed in the context of an internationally important wetland area, the Norfolk and Suffolk Broads in the UK. The ecological-economic research findings presented should provide essential information to underpin the regulatory and management process in this internationally important conservation area. The relevant authority somehow has to integrate the maintenance of public navigation rights, nature conservation, and tourism promotion in a highly dynamic ecosystems setting. Because of the stakeholder conflicts, potential and actual, a more inclusionary decision-making procedure is required, and is currently being implemented.     

传递系数法在滑坡稳定性评价中的几个问题探讨

本文运用LASA软件,分析了采用传递系数法计算滑坡稳定系数时,传递系数计算式、条块划分、渗透压力计算对稳定系数的影响。传递系数计算式的分析得出采用迭代法求解是比较合理的方法;通过实例对条块划分导致的影响分析,可知条块划分应当尽量与滑体的实际情况相符合才可以减小计算误差;渗透压力计算分析指出稳定性计算考虑动水压力时,应当根据不同情况选择不同水力坡降计算式。     

沈阳经济技术开发区环境空气监测点位优化布点研究

在网格布点的基础上 ,采用群分析方法对沈阳经济技术开发区的环境空气监测数据进行科学论证和分析 ,得出最佳点位     

基于统一强度理论的松散岩体的围岩压力计算

对于软弱破碎岩体,在埋深较浅的情况下,可以采用太沙基理论计算围岩压力。破裂面两侧作用着摩擦力,采用统一强度理论考虑破裂面两侧的摩擦力,从应力传递概念出发,推得了作用于衬砌上的垂直围岩压力公式。计算结果表明强度理论的效应是明显的。本文给出了围岩压力的范围值。