三峡库区生活垃圾总磷的分布特征和溶出规律研究

了解垃圾堆放场堆存生活垃圾的污染物含量及浸泡条件下污染物的溶出规律，有助于正确评价垃圾堆放场所带来的环境影响，从而为政府部门的决策提供依据。文章以三峡库区为例，通过测定三峡库区主要垃圾堆放场堆存生活垃圾总磷的含量，分析它们的分布特征，并且进行生活垃圾浸泡条件下总磷的溶出实验，分析它们的溶出规律，为三峡库区的环境保护提供帮助。结果表明，(1)三峡库区生活垃圾总磷的含量位于50-3290mg／kg之间，总磷分布集中于100-1600mg／kg之间，且区域差异较大；(2)生活垃圾淹没条件下总磷的释放规律为开始较慢，逐渐增大，达到最大值以后减少，最后趋于稳定；(3)生活垃圾淹没条件下总磷的单位溶出量与时间的关系满足逻辑斯特模型w=α／[1 βexp(-kt)]，且垃圾单位可溶出量α随质量增加而减少，利用本模型可以预测垃圾进入水体后总磷溶出的初期行为。     

Developing a CFD heat transfer model for applying high expansion foam in an LNG spill

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is widely used to cost-effectively store and transport natural gas. However, a spill of LNG can create a vapor cloud, which can potentially cause fire and explosion. High expansion (HEX) foam is recommended by the NFPA 11 to mitigate the vapor hazard and control LNG pool fire. In this study, the parameters that affect HEX foam performance were examined using lab-scale testing of foam temperature profile and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling of heat transfer in vapor channels. A heat transfer model using ANSYS Fluent® was developed to estimate the minimum HEX foam height that allows the vapors from LNG spillage to disperse rapidly. We also performed a sensitivity analysis on the effect of the vaporization rate, the diameter of the vapor channel, and the heat transfer coefficient on the required minimum height of the HEX foam. It can be observed that at least 1.2 m of HEX foam in height are needed to achieve risk mitigation in a typical situation. The simulation results can be used not only for understanding the heat transfer mechanisms when applying HEX foam but also for suggesting to the LNG facility operator how much HEX foam they need for effective risk mitigation under different conditions.     

Some characteristics of plutonium distribution in the atmospheric air and plants in the zone surrounding the Mayak Production Association

The results of long-term studies on plutonium distribution in the atmospheric air and plants in the area surrounding the Mayak Production Association in the years 1976–1995 are summarized. Data are presented on the changes in plutonium concentration in the air overtime at some points located in the survey zone and the impact zone of the industrial enterprise as compared to those in the control region. In addition, data on the changes in air plutonium concentration depending on the season and direction of wind are presented; the ratios between plutonium concentrations in the air and the fallout are analyzed.Translated from Ekologiya, No. 1, 2005, pp. 20–25.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Chudin, Shcherbakova, Maslovskii, Kocheva, Iovlev, Denisenko, Demin, Mamin, Chebotina.     

Using equation discovery to revise an Earth ecosystem model of the carbon net production

Equation discovery approaches to automated modeling from observed data usually derive equation-based models from scratch rather than from an initial model already established in the domain of use. In this paper, we present an approach that uses new or recent observational data to improve an existing equation-based model. The approach is used to reduce the error of the Earth ecosystem model of the net production of carbon in the atmosphere. We revise the initial ecosystem model in two directions. First, we calibrate the values of the constant parameters in the model on new observational data. Second, we allow the use of alternative equation structures for some of the sub-models of the initial model and use our approach to choose among them. Experiments show that both revision of values of the constant parameters and revision of the structures of sub-models can considerably reduce the error of the initial model.     

Risk-sensitive foraging behaviour of the round-eared elephant shrew (Macroscelides proboscideus)

We examined the risk-sensitive foraging behaviour of the round-eared elephant shrew by open-economy choice experiments, in which animals were deprived of food immediately prior to experiments but given food ad libitum afterwards, to test the energy budget rule. The energy budget rule states that if an animal's (daily) energy budget is negative it should behave in a risk-prone manner. A risk-prone elephant shrew should select food from a more variable rather than a constant feeding station, although both feeding stations yield the same average return. The choice of a variable station can indicate the degree to which an animal is an energy-shortfall minimizer. Elephant shrews running below energy requirement did not choose feeding stations in accordance with the rule. Under laboratory conditions, approximating either average summer or winter temperatures, elephant shrews showed risk-averse behaviour. A polycyclic activity profile, the ability to switch the diet, and greater than expected physiological control over energy balance, may favour a continuously foraging animal such that short-term energy deficits are minimized. We argue that, under these conditions, a risk-averse response to reward-size variance is expected, because an elephant-shrew may not reliably perceive those circumstances under which risk-prone behaviour should be adopted.     

基于电力历史应急大数据的应急情景规则分析与发现方法研究

为了解决电力突发事件演化过程难于预测,进而导致事件应急缺少针对性,较为被动的问题,提出在现有应急预案指导、事故模拟仿真、事故案例经验总结等方法基础上,引入基于电力历史大数据分析与预测的应急情景规则分析与发现方法,将电力应急突发事件情景构建的结果与相关大数据预测模型（汇总统计、分类与预测）相结合,提出科学、合理且具有良好操作性的情景演化规则的获取方法与技术路线,为进一步提高复杂电力突发事件的应急处置与指挥能力提供技术支撑。     

基于水库旱限水位动态控制的供水策略研究

为了克服现行水库旱限水位确定方法和功能定位上存在的不足,更好地为水库抗旱调度提供技术支持,通过结合供水系统水文干旱识别方法,用汛末蓄水量、干旱期设计来水量及供水规则计算干旱预警期。并根据实际来水逐月修改来水系列,对当年潜在干旱期和干旱预警期进行再计算,实现旱限水位的动态控制,由此提出了用“预警期/旱限水位”数对的形式(Td,DL)来表示的旱限水位动态控制方法。将旱限水位与限制供水策略相关联,用水库旱限水位作为触发水库限制供水的特征水位。并以水库累计缺水指数最小为目标,以限制供水系数为优化变量,建立水库进入干旱预警后的供水模拟-优化模型。以天津市于桥水库为实例研究,结果表明,旱限水位动态控制方法对水库干旱的预警不仅更加合理,且具有较好的可操作性;旱限水位与限制供水策略相关联,避免了潜在干旱期内水库出现程度更加严重的缺水,对不同蓄水条件下的限制供水系数进行分析,发现限制供水系数最优值一般取在0.5~0.75。     

Attitude to safety rules and reflexivity as determinants of safety climate

IntroductionWe present two studies that focus on the relationship between safety rules and the safety climate. It is expected that a reasoned acceptance, namely one based on an understanding of the bases for the rules and a collective management of the rules, should benefit the climate. Method: In an initial study (N = 202) employees replied to a questionnaire that measured the safety climate, the level of the relationship with the safety rules, and the understanding of their bases. The results highlighted the fact that a reasoned acceptance of the rules is associated with an understanding of their bases and predicts the level of safety. In a second study (N = 258) employees replied to a questionnaire measuring team reflexivity, the safety climate, and the level of relationship with the safety rules. We observed that collective management of the rules mediated the relation between team reflexivity and the safety climate. Results: The results are discussed from the point of view of their practical implications. Developing safety climate requires that operators are trained to understand the basis of safety rules and team reflexivity.     

Protected-Area Monitoring Dilemmas: a New Tool to Assess Success

Abstract:  Understanding factors that influence the success of protected areas in curbing unsustainable resource consumption is essential for determining best management strategies and allocating limited resources to those projects most likely to succeed. I used a law-enforcement and monitoring game-theory model from the political science literature to identify three key variables useful in predicting the success of a protected area: costs of monitoring for rule breakers, benefits of catching a rule breaker, and probability of catching a rule breaker if monitoring. Although assigning exact values for each of these variables was difficult, the variables had a strong predictive capacity even when coded as coarse ordinal values. A model in which such values were used correctly predicted the outcome of 88 of 116 protected areas sampled from the peer-reviewed literature. The model identified a critical zone of common mismatch between protected-area circumstances and management policies. In situations where the costs of monitoring were greater than the product of the probability of catching a rule breaker and the benefit of doing so, conservation was unlikely to succeed. Control of illegal use of protected resources was reported in only 8% of such cases, regardless of strategies to motivate potential users to cooperate with conservation. My model does not prescribe a best management policy for conserving natural resources; rather, it can be used as a tool to help predict whether a proposed management policy will likely succeed in a given situation.     

环境及营养条件对稀脉浮萍和紫背浮萍氮磷含量的影响

以稀脉浮萍和紫背浮萍为对象,对在不同光照、温度和培养液氮磷浓度等条件下生长的生物量氮和磷含量的系统分析,研究了环境营养条件对氮和磷含量的影响.结果表明紫背浮萍和稀脉浮萍氮含量主要受培养液中氮浓度和温度的影响,低氮浓度和低温均可导致氮含量降低,氮浓度超过3mg·L^-1,温度高于25℃时氮含量基本保持稳定;光照强度变化对这2种浮萍的氮含量基本没有影响.紫背浮萍和稀脉浮萍磷含量会受培养液中磷浓度、温度和光照的影响.低温和低光照可导致磷含量降低,温度超过25℃,光照高于8000lx时2种浮萍磷含量则基本保持稳定;这2种浮萍的磷含量均随培养液中磷浓度增加而增加直至达到饱和,它们之间的关系可以用Monod方程来描述,其中紫背浮萍饱和磷含量高于稀脉浮萍.