Estimation of pasture infectivity according to weather conditions through a fuzzy parametrized model for the free-living stage of Ostertagia ostertagi

Gastrointestinal parasitism is one of the diseases that has the highest economic impact on the Argentinian beef production system, rendering it inefficient. In the region of the Humid Pampas, it has been estimated that 22 million dollars are lost annually because of the death of calves and 170 million dollars are lost in sub-clinic costs. A mathematical model with fuzzy parameters was constructed for the analysis of the free-living stages of gastrointestinal parasites, with the purpose of estimating the pool of L3 larvae available for migration to pasture and the levels of infection in pasture at any time of the year under different climatic conditions. The model is formulated in terms of a system of three difference equations. These equations describe the abundance of parasites in each of the successive stages of the population development. The model was calibrated and tested with data gathered through fieldwork carried out in Tandil (37°19′S, 59°08′05″W), province of Buenos Aires (Argentina) and the corresponding weather data. A comparison between model simulations and fieldwork data obtained in other locations achieved satisfactory results.     

Male-male association patterns and female proximity in the guppy,Poecilia reticulata

If males differ in their ability to attract potential mates, and are able to perceive such differences, theory predicts they should distribute themselves in a manner that increases their probability of obtaining potential matings. The relationship between male-male association patterns and the proximity of females in social groups, however, remains virtually unexplored. Experimental analysis of this relationship in the guppy, Poecilia reticulata, demonstrates that in preference tests males showed a strong tendency to associate with other males that were further away from potential mates than they were themselves. Male guppies pursue a behavioral strategy that involves categorizing other males based on their proximity (and possibly relative attractiveness) to females, remembering the identity of such individuals, and using this information when choosing between other males as associates. Such a strategy may increase a male's chances of being the individual chosen by a female assessing nearby males.     

土壤及果树中HCH和DDT残留及分布规律研究

采用索氏提取、弗罗里土固相微萃取小柱净化结合GC-ECD测定了苹果园土壤和果树样品中4种六六六(HCH)和4种滴滴涕(DDT)的残留量,并对果树的根、枝、叶中HCH和DDT的分布规律进行了研究。实验结果表明,土壤和果树样品中均有HCH和DDT检出。土壤样品中两类农药的含量分别在0.51～3.97ng/g和1.46～15.55ng/g之间,其中β-HCH是六六六残留的主体,滴滴涕类的含量以p,p'-DDT为最高,并且(DDE+DDD)/DDT<1表明近期果园中有新的DDT输入。果树样品中,HCH和DDT的残留量分别在0.22～2.01ng/g和0.38～6.08ng/g之间,都要低于相应土壤中有机氯农药的浓度。果树中总OCPs的含量在4.88～17.94ng/g之间,是土壤和大气中OCPs污染共同作用的结果。根部的OCPs的含量明显高于枝和叶,其分布规律为根>叶>枝,这主要取决于根、枝、叶各组织的结构以及农药的理化性质。     

盐城湿地沉积物环境特征及其影响因素研究

盐城沿海湿地是国家级自然保护区,正面临环境的污染和生态破坏的威胁。为了有效地保护和恢复其受损的生态功能,文章通过实地采样分析的方法研究了盐城湿地底泥氮、磷及有机物含量与分布规律及其影响因素。研究表明盐城湿地受潮流与河流水动力条件的长期综合作用,该区从陆地向海洋方向,沉积物粒度呈现由细变粗的总体变化规律。潮间带沉积物中氮、磷及有机碳在空间上也呈现出从光滩向高潮位区逐渐增加的趋势。沉积物中营养物释放与微小颗粒物的再悬浮成为潮间带水体富营养化的一个重要因素。     

基于APRIORI-TAN的交通事故伤害分析与预测*

为探究道路交通事故因素和事故伤害的相关性,以2 467起涉及人员伤亡的交通事故为数据集,运用Apriori算法分别挖掘事故伤害关联规则,并结合社会网络分析的可视化和核心-边缘分析构建受伤事故和死亡事故的关联规则网络。结果表明:事故伤害程度与事故时间、道路条件和交通环境等因素关系紧密,尤其死亡事故与碰撞固定物、人行横道事故、高速公路、高速道路、非市区、酒驾和超速存在高相关性。基于树型贝叶斯网络（TAN）构建事故伤害程度的预测模型,预测结果准确率可达87.56%。     

城市污水水质水量变化及生活污染源污染特征研究

在收集西安市污水处理厂近年来水质水量监测数据的基础上,统计分析污水处理厂水量水质的变化规律,并通过对不同生活污水污染源的现场监测,研究各类生活污水污染源的污染强度和污染特征,识别重点生活污染源。研究结果表明,西安市主要污水处理厂近年来进水量逐年增大,且进水水质逐年恶化,其中COD、SS和NH3-N浓度逐年增加,TP浓度年际变化较小;城市污水的水质水量随季节波动变化,西安市城市污水水量以及COD、SS和NH3-N等水质指标在7-9月份及春节期间出现高峰,这与季节及年节导致的用水量变化有关,但年内TP浓度均在10 mg/L以下,波动较小;生活类污染源中污染物浓度因行业不同而异,餐饮业、学校、住宿业及生活小区是生活类污染源中的＂高污染＂行业,加强对上述行业的监管力度,从源头消减污染物对于节能减排具有重要的现实意义。     

环境样品保存过程中氮的转化规律

通过对环境样品保存过程中NH3-N、NO2-N、NO3-N及总氮的测定来研究水样中氮转化规律,找出三氯在一定条件下相互转化规律关系,提高环境样品中三个分析项目的分析准确性,正确反应环境样品中的真实情况。对于认识水体中氮的循环,防止水体污染,保护水域环境,充分利用开发水资源有着十分重要的意义。     

2010—2019年我国特别重大事故规律研究

为研究我国现阶段特别重大事故规律特征,选取2010—2019年的34起特别重大安全事故作为研究对象,利用统计学手段,以这些事故的发生地域、时间、死亡人数、事故分类等因素作为统计标准进行分析。研究发现:从时间角度,我国特别重大事故在近10年整体呈现震荡下降趋势;每年下半年,尤其是8月份为特别重大事故的高发期;特别重大交通事故易发生在夜间与午后,煤矿事故易发生在上午至中午,爆炸事故易发生在上午。针对不同行业或事故类别,交通运输及煤矿行业为特别重大事故的高发行业,爆炸事故为特别重大事故的高发类型且事故后果最为严重。同时,发现同类事故在同地区、同年月、同时段均存在聚集性现象。     

Is there really a green paradox?

In the absence of a CO₂ tax, the anticipation of a cheaper renewable backstop increases current emissions of CO₂. Since the date at which renewables are phased in is brought forward and more generally future emissions of CO₂ will decrease, the effect on global warming is unclear. Green welfare falls if the backstop is relatively expensive and full exhaustion of fossil fuels is optimal, but may increase if the backstop is sufficiently cheap relative to the cost of extracting the last drop of fossil fuels plus marginal global warming damages as then it is attractive to leave more fossil fuels unexploited and thus limit CO₂ emissions. We establish these results by analyzing depletion of non-renewable fossil fuels followed by a switch to a clean renewable backstop, paying attention to timing of the switch and the amount of fossil fuels remaining unexploited. We also discuss the potential for limit pricing when the non-renewable resource is owned by a monopolist. Finally, we show that if backstops are already used and more backstops become economically viable as the price of fossil fuels rises, a lower cost of the backstop will either postpone fossil fuel exhaustion or leave more fossil fuel in situ, thus boosting green welfare. However, if a market economy does not internalize global warming externalities and renewables have not kicked in yet, full exhaustion of fossil fuel will occur in finite time and a backstop subsidy always curbs green welfare.     

镇江市老城区生活污水水质特征及排放规律研究

镇江市老城区排水系统落后,主要以合流管网为主,区域内居民生活污水已成为镇江市水环境污染的重要来源之一,对该区域内居民生活污水水质特征和污染排放规律进行研究,不但有助于正确认识、科学把握城市面源污染特征,还有利于污染控制对策的制定和治理工程的开展。选择镇江市老城区典型合流制管网系统——黎明河溢流口,采用定点动态采样的方法,进行该区域生活污水水质特征和污染排放规律研究。研究结果表明,研究区域内各月的COD、TN、TP和SS的逐时变化规律具有各自的相似性。