Do microbial processes regulate the stability of a coral atoll's enclosed pelagic ecosystem?

Complex marine ecosystems contain multiple feedback cycles that can cause unexpected responses to perturbations. To better predict these responses, complicated models are increasingly being developed to enable the study of feedback cycles. However, the sparseness of ecological data often limits the direct empirical parameterization of all model parameters. Here we use a Bayesian inverse analysis approach to synthesize empirical data and ecological theory derived from published studies of a coral atoll's enclosed pelagic ecosystem (Takapoto Atoll, French Polynesia). We then use the estimates of flux magnitudes to parameterize probabilistic compartment models with two forms of heterotrophic consumption: (1) “bottom-up” donor-controlled heterotrophic consumption and (2) “top-down” mass-action heterotrophic consumption. We explore how the flux magnitudes affect the ecosystem's stability properties of resilience, reactivity, and resistance under both assumptions for heterotrophic consumption. The models suggest that the microbial uptake of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) regulates the long term rate of return to steady state following a temporary or pulse perturbation (resilience), and the cycling of carbon between abiotic pools and heterotrophic compartments regulates the short-term response (reactivity). In the bottom-up process model, the sensitivity of steady state masses following a sustained or press perturbation (resistance) is highest for the DOC pool following a sustained change to the microbial uptake rate of DOC. Further, a change in the microbial uptake of DOC propagates through the ecosystem and affects the steady state values of zooplankton. The analysis suggests that the food web is highly dependent on the recycling between the abiotic and biotic carbon pools, particularly as mediated by the microbial consumption of DOC, and this recycling determines how the ecosystem responds to perturbations.     

东亚春季边界层臭氧的数值模拟研究

利用嵌套网格空气质量模式系统(NAQPMS)对2004年4月东亚边界层(距地面.km以下)臭氧进行了数值模拟.并评估了东亚边界层光化学反应的活性.结果表明.东亚春季臭氧呈带状分布,其高值.〔φ(O3)>55×10-9.主要集中在30°N～40°N.受东亚季风气候控制.沿蒙古、中国东北以及日本一线有一强臭氧输送通道.输送通量达3×10-.mol/(m2·s).通过计算边界层O3光化学净生成率可知.光化学影响主要集中在高污染源排放地区.其与水平输送对臭氧影响的分布具有负相关性.说明光化学生成的O3可被输送至下风地区,而不仅限于局地.      

A Bayesian approach to multi-source forest area estimation

In efforts such as land use change monitoring, carbon budgeting, and forecasting ecological conditions and timber supply, there is increasing demand for regional and national data layers depicting forest cover. These data layers must permit small area estimates of forest area and, most importantly, provide associated error estimates. This paper presents a model-based approach for coupling mid-resolution satellite imagery with plot-based forest inventory data to produce estimates of probability of forest and associated error at the pixel-level. The proposed Bayesian hierarchical model provides access to each pixel’s posterior predictive distribution allowing for a highly flexible analysis of pixel and multi-pixel areas of interest. The paper presents a trial using multiple dates of Landsat imagery and USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis plot data. The results describe the spatial dependence structure within the trial site, provide pixel and multi-pixel summaries of probability of forest land use, and explore discretization schemes of the posterior predictive distributions to forest and non-forest classes. Model prediction results of a holdout set analysis suggest the proposed model provides high classification accuracy, 88%, for the trial site.

西双版纳胶-茶群落中茶树的光合特性及其影响因子

胶-茶群落在西双版纳地区有大面积分布,研究该群落中茶树的光合特性及其影响因子,可以为胶茶间作和茶树种植的实践提供理论依据.在自然条件下使用Li-6400便携式光合系统测定了西双版纳低(570 m)、高(870 m)两个不同海拔高度的胶-茶群落中茶树连体叶片的光合日进程,并对比研究了群落和纯林中茶树叶片的光响应.结果表明,两个群落中茶树叶片的最大净光合速率、暗呼吸速率、光补偿点和光饱和点均显著低于茶树纯林.两个群落中茶树的净光合速率日进程曲线均为"单峰"型,高海拔茶树的光量子通量密度、净光合速率、蒸腾速率和气孔导度均显著高于低海拔茶树的.相关性分析表明,光量子通量密度是引起群落中茶树光合差异的主要因素.群落林下光照的增强提高了茶树的净光合积累.在高海拔地区采用以茶树为主的胶茶种植结构将促进经济效益的提高.图3表3参24     

Modelling of stem biomass accumulation in Pinus densiflora seedlings exposed to aqueous-phase OH radicals generating mist

The present study aimed to evaluate the short-term biomass accumulation of forest trees exposed to wet acidic depositions. A hierarchical Bayesian model of tree growth was developed based on the data of a short-term experiment in which 2-year-old Japanese red pine (Pinus densiflora Sieb. et Zucc.) seedlings were exposed to aqueous phase OH radicals generated by an iron-oxalate-H₂O₂ mist (a pseudo-polluted dew) over two growing periods. We conducted a statistical comparison of tree growth between the control and pollution treatment groups by using the growth model incorporated the random effects due to the unknown characteristics of each seedling. The variability among seedlings is expressed in this model by the posterior probabilistic distributions of unobserved dry weight of a stem cohort before exposure treatment. The analysis of the effects of pollution treatment on the stem growth revealed that this treatment decreases the biomass allocation in the current year stems. However, the effects on the relative growth rate of pre-existing stems were unclear. Based on these results, we can speculate that in a polluted environment, the short-term growth of the young stems in the seedlings inhibited by pollution treatment, thereby resulting in the slowdown of long-term biomass accumulation. This can explain the patterns observed in the declining Japanese red pine forests that are subjected to OH-generating dews in the polluted area of western Japan.     

长白山树线交错带的生物量分配和净生产力

随山地垂直带海拔上升,环境恶化会影响到植物生物量的绝对量和相对量的分配,进而影响到生态系统的碳平衡。测定了位于长白山北坡海拔1900m树线交错带的两个林分:长白落叶松混交林和岳桦林的生物量分配和净生产力,并与低海拔相似林分进行了比较,探讨树线特殊环境下树木的生长反应和生态系统的碳投资策略。树线交错带林分生物量和生产力都出现急剧降低,冠层树干生物量比例急剧降低,而枝、叶生物量比例有显著增加。而根系比例和地下/地上生物量比在两种林分表现出不同的反应,树线落叶松混交林出现急剧增加,而树线岳桦林与低海拔岳桦林相比没有显著差别。枝、叶生物量比例增加,特别是叶生物量分配增加有利于在树线恶劣环境的碳吸收和碳平衡,是对树线交错带大风、积雪等恶劣气候的可塑性适应,树木在树线出现多分枝、矮曲生长型。树线地带落叶松混交林和岳桦林的净生产量也出现急剧降低,但根系生产量比例则较低海拔同类林分高,有利于对土壤中水分和养分的吸收。     

氯代芳香族化合物结构-电化学还原电位定量关系的贝叶斯规整化BP神经网络模型

将贝叶斯规整化误差反向传播神经网络(BRBPNN)应用于环境领域的 QSPR模型.采用ChemOffice2004内置的MOPAC 2000计算了6种量子化学参数(分子最高占据能EHOMO、分子最低占据能ELUMO、分子生成热HF、分子偶极矩DIP、分子的电子能量EE和分子的核核排斥能CCR)以及氯原子数(Cl)和分子量(MW),建立了87种氯代芳香族化合物结构与电化学还原电位定量关系的BRBPNN模型.最优网络模型结构为6-20-1,其电化学还原电位的拟合及预测能力明显优于逐步线性回归模型,其训练集和预测集的相关系数平方和均方根误差(MSE)分别达到0.999和0.000105,0.965和 0.00159.最优模型输入节点到隐含层权重平方和的分布规律揭示出各种描述符对还原电位的影响大小依次为: E_LUMO>E_HOMO>HF>CCR>EE>DIP.由散点图揭示出影响为正有EE;影响为负有E_LUMO,HF,DIP;影响无明显正负性的有E_LUMO,CCR.结果表明,贝叶斯规整化大大方便了网络规整化参数选择,保证了网络的优良概括能力和稳健性.本研究对氯代芳香族化合物采用电化学处理的适用性以及分析相应电化学降解机理提供了依据.     

陆地生态系统净第一性生产力过程模型研究综述

陆地生态系统净第一性生产力的模拟已从统计模型发展到过程模型时代。过程模型从机理上对植物的生物物理过程以及影响因子进行分析和模拟,理论框架完整,结构严谨。论文从植物器官、个体、冠层、景观以及区域等不同尺度对过程模型进行分析。近年来,由于遥感和GIS技术的支持,使得遥感过程模型融合了遥感及时、准确、宏观、多尺度的优势而成为当前生产力模型的主攻方向。遥感过程模型可实现生态系统NPP的及时模拟和动态监测,便捷、准确地反映NPP的时空变化格局。而在NPP建模过程中,尺度转换是所面临的一个重要问题。不同尺度模型间扩展时,需要采取相应的数学手段进行尺度转换,同时遥感和GIS技术提供了尺度转换的有力工具。综观我国NPP研究的发展,起步晚、发展快是其特点。虽然取得了大量的研究成果,但过程模型的建模方面还很不足,这是一个亟待解决的问题。     

排水管网设计中管材的选择

排水管网使用的各类排水管材种类繁多,性能差异较大.根据排水管材的材质、性能分析,对常用几种排水管材进行了技术经济比较.以实际工程为例,概述了不同施工条件和不同地质条件下排水管材的设计选择方法.     

某储罐区火灾多米诺效应场景推演

化工园区中危险源众多,一旦发生事故很容易在整个园区内蔓延和发展.针对化工园区内储罐密集,容易引发连锁反应导致事故扩大的特点,利用FDS软件对储罐火灾场景进行数值模拟,根据储罐所受热辐射确定化工园区内储罐火灾最可能的事故发生序列,并引入基于设备失效前时间的机械设备故障概率模型对罐区内单个储罐的火灾风险进行研究,得到储罐区...