Resilience-based approach to safety barrier performance assessment in process facilities

The performance assessment of safety barriers is essential to find vulnerable elements in a safety barrier system. Traditional performance assessment approaches mainly focus on using several static indicators for quantifying the performance of safety barriers. However, with the increasing complexity of the system, emerging hazards are highly uncertain, making it challenging for the static indicators to assess the performance of safety barriers. This paper proposes a resilience−based performance assessment method for safety barriers to overcome this problem. Safety barriers are classified according to their functions first. The dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is then introduced to calculate the availability function under normal and disruption conditions. The ratio of the system's availability, when affected by the disruption, to the initial availability, is used to determine the absorption capacity of the system. The ratio of the quantity of availability recovery to the total quantity of system represents the adaptation and restoration capacity of the system. The system's resilience is represented by the sum of absorption, adaptation, and restoration capacities. The wax oil hydrogenation process is used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology.     

基于事件提取和改进MMHC的航空旅客运输事故征候贝叶斯网络建模

为表征航空旅客运输事故征候演化机理,提出事故征候贝叶斯网络的建模方法.基于事故征候中致因事件、结果事件及分类标准的定义,以7265起事故征候案例为样本,利用事件提取算法,识别事故征候叙述文本中的致因事件,利用改进的最大最小爬山算法实现网络建模;依据事件提取的测试集验证与结构学习的交叉验证,检验建模算法的准确性与有效性;...     

基于DBT-DBN模型的气化炉超温动态风险分析

为加强煤气化装置核心设备气化炉的安全风险管理,利用动态领结(DBT)模型和动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)相结合的风险分析方法,构建气化炉超温事故风险分析模型.首先,分析设备故障的时序性,建立超温事故的DBT模型,结合模糊评价确定设备故障的发生概率;然后,将DBT映射到DBN中,将故障维修的动态特征定义为转移概率,双向推理气化...     

改进系统布置设计的山岭隧道施工场地安全布局

为提高山岭隧道施工场地安全布局水平,以牛栾村隧道施工场地为例,提出一种改进的系统布置设计(SLP)法,布设混凝土拌合站、机械库房、水泥库等13个单元场地,将该方法与贝叶斯网络模型结合,通过对比建筑施工场地布置影响因素,确定山岭隧道施工场地布置的重要因素权重和布设单位间的综合相互关系,形成2种场地布置优化方案,并通过建立数学模型,以安全水平强度、材料流动强度和运输时间为目标函数,结合因素加权法对比优化方案与原方案,确定相对最优场地布置方案。结果表明:改进SLP法得出的最优场地布局方案相比于原方案,改动区域较小,且在安全水平强度、材料流动强度和运输时间上提高12.30%。该方法有助于提高山岭隧道施工效率,增强施工场地安全水平。     

Patch-Occupancy Modeling as a Method for Monitoring Changes in Forest Floristics: a Case Study in Southeastern Australia

Abstract:  The ability to monitor changes in biodiversity is fundamental to demonstrating sustainable management practices of natural resources. Disturbance studies generally focus on responses at the plot scale, whereas landscape-scale responses are directly relevant to the development of sustainable forest management. Modeling changes in occupancy is one way to monitor landscape-scale responses. We used understory vegetation data collected over 16 years from a long-term study site in southeastern Australia. The site was subject to timber harvesting and frequent prescribed burning. We used occupancy models to examine the impacts of these disturbances on the distribution of 50 species of plants during the study. Timber harvesting influenced the distribution of 9 species, but these effects of harvesting were generally lost within 14 years. Repeated prescribed fire affected 22 species, but the heterogeneity of the burns reduced the predicted negative effects. Twenty-two species decreased over time independent of treatment, and only 5 species increased over time. These changes probably represent a natural response to a wildfire that occurred in 1973, 13 years before the study began. Occupancy modeling is a useful and flexible technique for analyzing monitoring data and it may also be suitable for inclusion within an adaptive-management framework for forest management.     

VALUING IRRIGATION WATER: A SIMULATION/MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: A two-stage simulation/mathematical programming model was developed to derive irrigation water values that reflect efficient response to reduced water supplies. The failure of many previous water valuation studies to represent the dynamic dimension of irrigation was shown to result in overestimation of derived water values. Water values are also shown to be dramatically influenced by both application system characteristics, as well as the relative costs of irrigation inputs. Finally, the marginal value of irrigation water was shown to vary considerably over the irrigation season, reaching its maximum when atmospheric demand is highest and crops are most susceptible to water stress. Results presented should be of interest to policymakers investigating the viability of alternative water reallocation mechanisms.     

Belief Networks: A Framework for the Participatory Development of Natural Resource Management Strategies

Successful long-term management of natural resources requires the development of strategies which recognise the constraints pertaining to the environmental system and can therefore be realistically expected to work. This paper presents a new technique for strategy formulation using belief networks, a framework based on Bayesian probability calculus that supports the investigation of complex environmental systems by the user and analysis of all constraints. While mathematical in nature, belief networks are superficially simple and allow concepts to be expressed in terms with which a wide range of user will be familiar. This offers a participatory approach to the development of management strategies through consideration of the impact of potential management options with consequent benefits for strategy implementation.     

SAMPLE UNCERTAINTY IN FLOOD LEVEE DESIGN: BAYESIAN VERSUS NON-BAYESIAN METHODS1

ABSTRACT: Bayesian and non-Bayesian flood levee design methods that account for the uncertainty due to limited record length are compared using a case study. The first method, Bayesian decision theory (BDT), imbeds the uncertainty in the parameters of the yearly peak stage into a loss function. The optimum design of the flood levee, called Bayes design, corresponds to the minimum expected loss, called Bayes risk. The second method, induced safety algorithm (ISA), computes a margin of safety to be added to either an existing levee or a levee designed by classical benefit-cost analysis. The design decision is shown to fluctuate as different record lengths are considered. For short record lengths, BDT, which takes small sample bias into account, appears to yield a more conservative design than ISA. On the other hand, ISA, which is simple to implement, seems to be preferable to BDT for longer record lengths.     

Approaches to Evaluate Water Quality Model Parameter Uncertainty for Adaptive TMDL Implementation1

Abstract: The National Research Council recommended Adaptive Total Maximum Daily Load implementation with the recognition that the predictive uncertainty of water quality models can be high. Quantifying predictive uncertainty provides important information for model selection and decision‐making. We review five methods that have been used with water quality models to evaluate model parameter and predictive uncertainty. These methods (1) Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis, (2) Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation, (3) Bayesian Monte Carlo, (4) Importance Sampling, and (5) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are based on similar concepts; their development over time was facilitated by the increasing availability of fast, cheap computers. Using a Streeter‐Phelps model as an example we show that, applied consistently, these methods give compatible results. Thus, all of these methods can, in principle, provide useful sets of parameter values that can be used to evaluate model predictive uncertainty, though, in practice, some are quickly limited by the “curse of dimensionality” or may have difficulty evaluating irregularly shaped parameter spaces. Adaptive implementation invites model updating, as new data become available reflecting water‐body responses to pollutant load reductions, and a Bayesian approach using MCMC is particularly handy for that task.     

Physiological responses of Avicennia marina seedlings to the phytotoxic effects of the water-soluble fraction of light Arabian crude oil

Stomatal behavior, growth performance and the accumulation of polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were evaluated in seedlings of the mangrove Avicennia marina (Forssk.) Vierh., treated with a water-soluble fraction (WSF) of Abu-Dhabi light Arabian crude oil through foliar spraying or soil application.Irregular stomatal behavior and weak stomatal control over transpiration were observed during the first 24 hours, where stomatal resistances of plants sprayed with 150 and 300 g PAHs plant^–1 were significantly lower than that of the control plants. After six weeks, all treated plants showed no significant difference in their relative growth rate (RGR) or in the net assimilation rate (NAR) compared with the control plants.Tri-aromatic hydrocarbons were the most accumulated in tissues of the treated plants. Penta- and hexa-aromatics, on the other hand, were undetectable in the WSF and consequently in the treated plants. A linear relationship was observed between the dose applied to plants and the amounts of tissue accumulated PAHs (r ²=0.515 for soil application and r ²=0.984 for foliar spray). In plants sprayed with 300 g PAHs plant^–1, the total PAHs accumulated were more than that accumulated in plants treated through soil application.These findings suggest that: aqueous extraction of crude oil tends to signify the percentage of the low molecular weight PAHs, e.g. naphthalene, to the total PAHs; disturbed stomatal behavior in the first day of the treatment may be due to the venting of the volatile low molecular weight aromatic hydrocarbons (e.g. benzene, toluene, and xylenes) through the stomata; and uptake of water-soluble hydrocarbons by plants is equally possible through both of the root system and the foliage. The ecological implications of these finding are discussed in relation to oil pollution of mangrove stands under field conditions.