Predicting a ‘tree change’ in Australia's tropical savannas: Combining different types of models to understand complex ecosystem behaviour

In this study, key ecological modelling limitations of a process-based simulation model and a Bayesian network were reduced by combining the two approaches. We demonstrate the combined modelling approach with a case study investigating increases in woody vegetation density in northern Australia's tropical savannas. We found that by utilising the strengths of a simulation model and a Bayesian network we could both forecast future change in woody vegetation density and diagnose the reasons for current vegetation states. The local conditions of climate, soil characteristics and the starting population of trees were found to be more important in explaining the likelihood of change in woody vegetation density compared to management practices such as grazing pressure and fire regimes. We conclude that combining the strengths of a process and BN model allowed us to produce a simple model that utilised the ability of the process model to simulate ecosystem processes in detail and over long time periods, and the ability of the BN to capture uncertainty in ecosystem response and to conduct scenario, sensitivity and diagnostic analysis. The overall result was a model that has the potential to provide land managers with a better understanding of the behaviour of a complex ecosystem than simply utilising either modelling approach in isolation.     

丛枝菌根真菌对内蒙古草原大针茅群落的影响

使用真菌抑制剂在内蒙古草原开展原位试验,人为创造菌根受抑制和正常两种环境,通过分析菌根侵染率,测定大针茅群落的物种组成、丰富度和多样性等结构指标,分析丛枝菌根真菌对群落结构和净初级生产力的影响。试验结果表明,两种处理群落的菌根侵染率不同,苯菌灵有效地降低了植株的菌根侵染率。丛枝菌根真菌短期内未能对植物群落的物种丰富度、多样性产生影响,未能改变植物群落的结构和净初级生产力。但丛枝菌根真菌的存在,会对植物群落内不同植物种的地上部生物量实现再分配,降低了优势种垄断资源的能力,使群落内物种的生物量和营养元素含量趋于均匀,有利于保护关键种,有利于植被的恢复与重建。因此,研究结论为内蒙古退化草原生态系统的恢复和重建提供了重要的理论依据和参考价值。     

基于净初级生产力的生态足迹模型及其与传统模型的对比分析

生态足迹模型因其可以定量度量生态可持续发展、计算简单、结论易懂、全球可比等特点,提出之后得到了大量的关注和应用,同时也面临着一些质疑和争论。文章介绍了一种基于净初级生产力的生态足迹理论和计算方法,并以该方法和传统生态足迹模型分别计算了中国1961-2007年的生态足迹,对计算结果进行了对比分析。结果表明,两种生态足迹模型的计算结果具有较高的相关性,表明基于净初级生产力的生态足迹模型结果可信。该种方法能够克服传统生态足迹模型的部分缺陷,在均衡因子选取、土地生态功能假设、CO2吸收等方面有了较大改进,能够较好地反映不同生态系统在生产力上的差异;在时间序列分析方面也更加合理。但该方法本身同时存在着计算方法不完善、对生态系统变化不敏感等问题,如何更紧密地结合生态足迹和净初级生产力是需要进一步研究的内容。     

Response of tree growth to a changing climate in boreal central Canada: A comparison of empirical,process-based,and hybrid modelling approaches

The impact of 2 × CO₂ driven climate change on radial growth of boreal tree species Pinus banksiana Lamb., Populus tremuloides Michx. and Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP growing in the Duck Mountain Provincial Forest of Manitoba (DMPF), Canada, is simulated using empirical and process-based model approaches. First, empirical relationships between growth and climate are developed. Stepwise multiple-regression models are conducted between tree-ring growth increments (TRGI) and monthly drought, precipitation and temperature series. Predictive skills are tested using a calibration–verification scheme. The established relationships are then transferred to climates driven by 1× and 2 × CO₂ scenarios using outputs from the Canadian second-generation coupled global climate model. Second, empirical results are contrasted with process-based projections of net primary productivity allocated to stem development (NPP_s). At the finest scale, a leaf-level model of photosynthesis is used to simulate canopy properties per species and their interaction with the variability in radiation, temperature and vapour pressure deficit. Then, a top-down plot-level model of forest productivity is used to simulate landscape-level productivity by capturing the between-stand variability in forest cover. Results show that the predicted TRGI from the empirical models account for up to 56.3% of the variance in the observed TRGI over the period 1912–1999. Under a 2 × CO₂ scenario, the predicted impact of climate change is a radial growth decline for all three species under study. However, projections obtained from the process-based model suggest that an increasing growing season length in a changing climate could counteract and potentially overwhelm the negative influence of increased drought stress. The divergence between TRGI and NPP_s simulations likely resulted, among others, from assumptions about soil water holding capacity and from calibration of variables affecting gross primary productivity. An attempt was therefore made to bridge the gap between the two modelling approaches by using physiological variables as TRGI predictors. Results obtained in this manner are similar to those obtained using climate variables, and suggest that the positive effect of increasing growing season length would be counteracted by increasing summer temperatures. Notwithstanding uncertainties in these simulations (CO₂ fertilization effect, feedback from disturbance regimes, phenology of species, and uncertainties in future CO₂ emissions), a decrease in forest productivity with climate change should be considered as a plausible scenario in sustainable forest management planning of the DMPF.     

长沙对外贸易发展的现状及其对经济发展的影响

利用1998年到2006年长沙对外贸易的数据分析了长沙对外贸易发展的现状,结果表明长沙近几年对外贸易总体上呈不断增长趋势、贸易结构不断优化;同时对外贸易推动了长沙经济增长、技术进步、结构调整和竞争力的提升,但长沙对外贸易的规模偏小、增长速度偏低、对长沙经济增长的拉动作用小.长沙作为中部省会城市,其外贸发展情况必然带有整个中西部地区外贸的一些共性,对其他中部地区外贸研究具有一定参考价值.表2,参5.     

Physiological responses of Avicennia marina seedlings to the phytotoxic effects of the water-soluble fraction of light Arabian crude oil

Stomatal behavior, growth performance and the accumulation of polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were evaluated in seedlings of the mangrove Avicennia marina (Forssk.) Vierh., treated with a water-soluble fraction (WSF) of Abu-Dhabi light Arabian crude oil through foliar spraying or soil application.Irregular stomatal behavior and weak stomatal control over transpiration were observed during the first 24 hours, where stomatal resistances of plants sprayed with 150 and 300 g PAHs plant^–1 were significantly lower than that of the control plants. After six weeks, all treated plants showed no significant difference in their relative growth rate (RGR) or in the net assimilation rate (NAR) compared with the control plants.Tri-aromatic hydrocarbons were the most accumulated in tissues of the treated plants. Penta- and hexa-aromatics, on the other hand, were undetectable in the WSF and consequently in the treated plants. A linear relationship was observed between the dose applied to plants and the amounts of tissue accumulated PAHs (r ²=0.515 for soil application and r ²=0.984 for foliar spray). In plants sprayed with 300 g PAHs plant^–1, the total PAHs accumulated were more than that accumulated in plants treated through soil application.These findings suggest that: aqueous extraction of crude oil tends to signify the percentage of the low molecular weight PAHs, e.g. naphthalene, to the total PAHs; disturbed stomatal behavior in the first day of the treatment may be due to the venting of the volatile low molecular weight aromatic hydrocarbons (e.g. benzene, toluene, and xylenes) through the stomata; and uptake of water-soluble hydrocarbons by plants is equally possible through both of the root system and the foliage. The ecological implications of these finding are discussed in relation to oil pollution of mangrove stands under field conditions.     

低热值煤气燃气发电在济钢发电工程中的应用

介绍了冶金企业高炉冶炼副产品高炉煤气的一种高效回收利用途径，并简要介绍了济钢新建燃气-蒸汽联合循环发电工程工艺流程。阐明了燃气-蒸汽联合循环发电的高效经济性，是钢铁企业回收利用低热值燃料的一种最佳方法。     

Approaches to Evaluate Water Quality Model Parameter Uncertainty for Adaptive TMDL Implementation1

Abstract: The National Research Council recommended Adaptive Total Maximum Daily Load implementation with the recognition that the predictive uncertainty of water quality models can be high. Quantifying predictive uncertainty provides important information for model selection and decision‐making. We review five methods that have been used with water quality models to evaluate model parameter and predictive uncertainty. These methods (1) Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis, (2) Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation, (3) Bayesian Monte Carlo, (4) Importance Sampling, and (5) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are based on similar concepts; their development over time was facilitated by the increasing availability of fast, cheap computers. Using a Streeter‐Phelps model as an example we show that, applied consistently, these methods give compatible results. Thus, all of these methods can, in principle, provide useful sets of parameter values that can be used to evaluate model predictive uncertainty, though, in practice, some are quickly limited by the “curse of dimensionality” or may have difficulty evaluating irregularly shaped parameter spaces. Adaptive implementation invites model updating, as new data become available reflecting water‐body responses to pollutant load reductions, and a Bayesian approach using MCMC is particularly handy for that task.     

Water-saving irrigation of paddy field to reduce nutrient runoff

The purpose of this work is to study the effect of a type of water-saving irrigation (WSI) on nutrient runo of paddy field. The volume of surface drainage was maintained low by WSI. In particular, WSI e ectively reduced surface drainage in rain events. Model simulation indicated that net runo load of total nitrogen (TN) from the paddy field was increased by WSI. Meanwhile, net runo loads of total phosphorus (TP) and total organic carbon (TOC) from the paddy field was decreased by WSI. Because ponding waters of the study fields were enriched with TP and TOC, WSI reduced runo of these nutrients by controlling the volume of surface drainage. WSI could be considered an e cient method for reducing runo loads and could conserve water quality in an agricultural watershed.     

贵州典型森林群落植物冠层叶片遭受酸雨直接伤害的模拟实验与效应分析

在贵州龙里地区开展降雨连续监测,依据监测结果,配置不同pH值梯度的模拟酸雨;选择杨梅、油茶等10种贵州典型森林群落优势种,对植物叶片开展模拟酸雨喷淋试验;并利用便携式光合仪LI-6400观测喷淋前后叶片的光合作用,研究酸雨对贵州典型森林群落植物叶片的直接伤害作用.实验结果显示:①pH值5.0和4.0的模拟酸雨基本不会影响供试树种冠层叶片的光合作用;pH值3.0的模拟酸雨使小果红椿、枫树冠层叶片的净光合作用速率不同程度地升高,升高率为11.03%和0.62%,其他树种效果不明显;②pH值2.0的模拟酸雨使供试树种冠层叶片的净光合作用速率降低,其中小果红椿、枫树、白栗和香叶树尤为明显,降低率为28.32%、30.32%、12.21%和11.37%;pH值2.0的模拟酸雨使小果红椿叶片出现可见直接伤害,叶缘和脉间出现黄白色斑点,有穿孔,其他树种未发现可见直接伤害症状.研究表明,研究区典型森林群落植物叶片出现可见直接伤害的酸雨pH值阈值在2.0～3.0之间;同时,在酸雨对叶片造成可见直接伤害之前,存在隐性直接伤害,对叶片造成隐性直接伤害的酸雨pH值阈值为3.0.依据试验结果,从研究区监测数据分析,目前酸雨对该区植物冠层叶片的直接伤害有限.