燃煤电厂烟气脱硫技术综合评价研究

应用模糊数学原理和层次分析法,从经济、技术和环境三方面综合评价烟气脱硫技术,使烟气脱硫技术的选择更科学。以五种典型烟气脱硫技术为评价对象,应用该综合评价方法得出石灰石-石膏法较优的结论。     

Modeling the Effects of Potential Salinity Shifts on the Recovery of Striped Bass in the Savannah River Estuary,Georgia–South Carolina,United States

Increased salinity in spawning and nursery grounds in the Savannah River estuary was cited as the primary cause of a 97% decrease in adult striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and a concomitant 96% decrease in striped bass egg production. Restoration efforts focused on environmental remediation and stock enhancement have resulted in restored salinity patterns and increased egg and adult abundances. However, future water needs or harbor development may preclude further recovery by reducing freshwater inflow or increasing salinity intrusion. To assess the effect of potential changes in the salinity regime, we developed models relating discharge, tidal phase, and salinity to striped bass egg and early larval survival and re-cast these in a quantitative Bayesian belief network. The model indicated that a small upstream shift (≤1.67 km) in the salinity regime would have the least impact on striped bass early life history survival, whereas shifts >1.67 km would have progressively larger impacts, with a 8.33-km shift potentially reducing our estimated survival probability by >28%. Such an impact could have cumulative and long-term detrimental effects on the recovery of the Savannah River striped bass population. The available salinity data were collected during average and low flows, so our model represents some typical and some extreme conditions during a striped bass spawning season. Our model is a relatively simplistic, “first-order” attempt at evaluating potential effects of changes in the Savannah River estuarine salinity regime and points to areas of concern and potential future research.     

生物质热电厂大气影响评价的研究

为确定生物质能发电环境方面的可行性,分析了生物质能发电的工艺流程,相比于火电的优缺点,并进行了生物质能热电联厂的大气环境影响评价研究。结果表明：预测评价的烟尘、SO2和NO2排放浓度分别为11,63mg／m^3、200．3mg／m^3和378．7mg／m^3,均远低于火力发电的排放值;在不同条件下、不同地点SO2和NO2的1小时、日均浓度也均远低于火力发电的浓度值。说明了生物质能发电在环境友好性方面具有明显的优势。     

区域规划环境影响跟踪评价的理论研究

随着环境影响评价制度的深入实施,其实施领域已由项目环评向区域环评和规划环评转变,评价内容也由广泛实施的预测评价向后评价和跟踪评价转变。然而,对于区域规划环评的评价层次、评价程序和评价内容,目前还没有明晰的认识;同时,对于促进规划环评有效实施的跟踪评价,其相关的理论和实践研究几乎没有。文中就此问题作了深入探讨。     

三峡库区沙坝沟滑坡影响因素分析与稳定性评价

在不同工况下,通过采取不同的岩土体物理力学参数来计算沙坝沟滑坡的稳定系数并分析影响因素,得到影响该滑坡稳定性的主要因素为降雨、地下水作用及人类工程活动,在一定条件下可能成为滑坡失稳破坏的诱导因素。最后为滑坡防治提出一些建议,对滑坡的预测和防护提供依据。     

Three-Dimensional Modelling of Concentration Fluctuations in Complicated Geometry

The strong fluctuating component in the measured concentration time series of a dispersing gaseous pollutant in the atmospheric boundary layer, and the hazard level associated to short-term concentration levels, demonstrate the necessity of calculating the magnitude of turbulent fluctuations of concentration using computational simulation models. Moreover the computation of concentration fluctuations in cases of dispersion in realistic situations, such as built-up areas or street canyons, is of special practical interest for hazard assessment purposes. In this paper, the formulation and evaluation of a model for concentration fluctuations, based on a transport equation, are presented. The model is applicable in cases of complex geometry. It is included in the framework of a computational code, developed for simulating the dispersion of buoyant pollutants over complex geometries. The experimental data used for the model evaluation concerned the dispersion of a passive gas in a street canyon between 4 identical rectangular buildings performed in a wind tunnel. The experimental concentration fluctuations data have been derived from measured high frequency concentrations. The concentration fluctuations model is evaluated by comparing the model's predictions with the observations in the form of scatter plots, quantile-quantile plots, contour plots and statistical indices as the fractional bias, the geometrical mean variance and the factor-of-two percentage. From the above comparisons it is concluded that the overall model performance in the present complex geometry case is satisfactory. The discrepancies between model predictions and observations are attributed to inaccuracies in prescribing the actual wind tunnel boundary conditions to the computational code.     

太湖地区“禁磷”措施的效果及在富营养化控制中的作用

通过太湖地区采取“禁磷”措施前后城市生活污水、主要入湖河水和湖体水域中磷浓度与富营养化指数变化的分析 ,证实“禁磷”措施对降低居民生活污水中磷浓度的作用较为明显 ,降幅为 2 4 %左右 ,但对入湖河道和湖体水域中磷浓度与水体富营养化的影响则不明显。表明太湖富营养化的改善 ,除了实施“禁磷”措施外 ,尚需结合流域内其它污染治理措施 ,进行综合治理 ,才能取得较好的效果。     

天津市基于新标准的空气质量预报模型效果评估

利用2015年环境空气质量监测数据,对天津市OPAQ空气质量统计预报模型预测效果进行验证评估。结果表明,模型对天津市AQI和PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、O_3、NO——2的预测结果与实测结果具有较好的趋势一致性,且预测时间越临近,拟合度越好,24 h预报的相关系数r全部达到0.8以上。对PM_(2.5)的预报性能明显优于PM_(10)、O_3和NO_2,PM_(2.5)平均值预测略呈正偏差,但重污染预测值偏低约15%;O_3和NO_2预测值呈明显负偏差,O_3峰值预测不足,NO_2预测值整体偏低,均以24 h预报趋势性最好,但负偏差最为突出。     

江苏省空气质量预报准确度及改进方法分析

介绍了江苏省重污染天气监测预报预警系统以及大气重污染预警会商流程,将2015年13个地级市的模式预报、人工预报结果分别与实际观测值进行比较。结果表明:人工预报更准确,PM_(2.5)日均值、臭氧日最大8 h平均值、AQI 3个指标人工预报和实况的相关性分别比模式预报高出12.8%、0.3%、11.4%,平均标准误差(MNE)分别低20.7%、3.1%、23.1%。依据国家空气质量预报技术指南评分办法,对各市2015年全年空气质量级别为"良"时进行评分。通过开展07∶00预报更新,使2015年上半年空气质量预报级别得分平均提高了0.9分,全年级别得分平均提高了2.6分;通过改进模式预报参数,使PM_(2.5)日均预报值、臭氧日最大8 h平均预报值、AQI预报值和实际观测值的相关性比上年同期分别提高26.0%、5.0%、33.9%,MNE分别降低3.6%、31.3%、7.6%。     

典型湖泊水华特征及相关影响因素分析

通过2011-2015年对太湖、巢湖和滇池水华高发季节的连续监测,以藻类密度和水华面积为判据评价了3个湖体的水华情况及变化趋势,探讨了水华发生的主要影响因素。结果表明：太湖水华程度以"轻度水华"为主,巢湖水华程度以"轻微水华"为主,滇池水华程度以"中度水华"为主;太湖、巢湖和滇池水华规模均以"零星性水华"为主;太湖和巢湖藻类密度与水温、pH、溶解氧、总氮、总磷和高锰酸盐指数均呈显著正相关,与透明度呈显著负相关,与氨氮无显著相关性;滇池藻类密度与水温、总磷和高锰酸盐指数均呈显著正相关,与透明度和氨氮呈显著负相关,与pH、溶解氧和总氮无显著相关性。