基于熵值法和物元可拓模型的核电站安全运行状态评价

我国核电事业发展迅速,核电安全是核电产业发展的重要基础.针对我国核电的发展和安全运行现状,建立了安全运行状况指标体系,通过构建物元可拓模型获得各指标在各评价等级上的关联度,将关联度与熵值法求得的指标权重合成得到加权综合关联度,继而确定核电站安全运行状况评价等级.在对核电站整体运行状况进行综合评价的同时,也能实现对安全运行状况各指标的分类评价.     

2种铀矿井下常用口罩对气溶胶粒子的过滤特性研究

为探究铀矿井下常用的2种口罩对气溶胶粒子的过滤特性,在我国南方某铀矿山,利用APS3321型空气动力学粒径谱仪对井下工作人员常用纱布口罩和KN95型口罩的过滤特性进行了研究.井下气溶胶监测数据显示,该铀矿井下典型作业场所PM10的质量浓度介于0.069～ 9.800 mg/m3,个数浓度介于173.918 ～2 561.600个/cm3;PM2.5的质量浓度介于0.039～0.479 mg/m3之间,个数浓度介于173.100～2 556.382个/cm3之间.口罩过滤特性试验结果表明:1)KN95型口罩和纱布口罩对PM10的平均过滤效率分别为95％和76％,对PM2.5的平均过滤效率分别为93％和61％,可见KN95型口罩过滤效率明显高于纱布口罩;2)在0.5～3.5 μm粒径范围内,2种口罩对颗粒物的过滤效率均随粒径增大而增大,在3.5～ 10μm粒径范围内,2种口罩对不同粒径颗粒物的过滤效率均接近100％;3)无论从质量浓度还是个数浓度来看,经口罩过滤后的气溶胶粒子大多数分布在2.5μm粒径范围内,表明PM2.5是主要的气溶胶污染物.     

本煤层瓦斯抽采渗流模型及数值模拟

在研究煤层瓦斯抽采时,假定煤岩为具有孔隙裂隙的双重介质,在运动方程、连续性方程和辅助方程基础上,以煤岩体应变为耦合媒介建立了考虑裂隙瓦斯渗流、微孔隙吸附瓦斯解吸扩散和煤岩变形的渗流模型.借助多物理场分析软件COMSOL Multiphysics,将模型转化为偏微分方程组,结合沙曲矿24305工作面瓦斯赋存条件进行分析求解.结果表明,进行煤层瓦斯预抽时,抽采初期瓦斯压力下降较快,抽采孔间距对抽采效果影响比较显著,距离抽采孔越远瓦斯压力下降越慢,抽采时瓦斯渗流速度变化可分3个阶段.参考模拟结果现场布置孔距为6m的顺层钻孔,抽采稳定时瓦斯纯量达5～7 m3/min,抽采效果比较理想.     

采空区瓦斯涌出源位置对瓦斯分布影响的数值模拟

根据多孔介质渗流理论,利用Fluent软件,分别对采空区瓦斯在整个采空区均匀涌出、上邻近层及底板遗煤涌出2种情况下采空区瓦斯分布规律进行了数值模拟.结果表明:采空区瓦斯为上邻近层及底板遗煤处涌出时,沿走向方向,靠近上邻近层及底板处高体积分数瓦斯距离工作面较近;沿竖直方向,瓦斯体积分数分布呈钩状,靠近瓦斯涌出源处瓦斯体积分数最高;整个采空区均匀涌出时采空区瓦斯体积分数分布与上邻近层及底板遗煤涌出时有很大差别.因此,为了得到更符合实际情况的瓦斯分布规律,数值模拟时应按照现场实际的瓦斯涌出源位置建立模型.     

围岩稳定性评价的改进物元可拓模型与应用

为弥补现有地下工程围岩稳定性评价方法的不足,建立了改进的物元可拓模型。通过构造一种新的关联函数,解决了因传统的物元可拓模型的关联函数是一个分段函数而存在的不便于计算的缺陷,以及评价指标间的互不相容性问题,拓宽了物元可拓法的应用范围。将改进的物元可拓模型应用于某地下工程围岩的稳定性评价,结果表明,样本1、2、5属于Ⅱ级(较稳定),样本3、4属于Ⅰ级(稳定)。通过将其评价结果与传统可拓法及模糊数学综合评判结果进行比较分析,证明该评价方法的正确性。研究表明,改进的物元可拓模型的评价结果与实际工程地质情况更为吻合,准确度更高,能够反映各因素对围岩稳定性的影响,其合理性和可行性得到了验证。     

外浮顶罐充氮管网设计及有效性试验验证

为了预防外浮顶罐密封圈雷击火灾,提出在密封圈内充入氮气的保护方法.将安全含氧量作为充氮的惰化目标,对外浮顶罐充氮管网进行设计,并通过试验来验证充氮管网的有效性.试验得到了充氮流量、进出气孔数量及管径与有效充氮时间的关系.若以142 m3/h的流量对容量为10×104 m3的外浮顶罐密封圈内充氮,则46.5 min内可以达到充氮惰化目标.雷电预警时间为60 ～ 90 min的条件下,充氮时间小于预警时间,表明所设计的管网是有效的.     

隧道路段逆反射轮廓标设置技术研究

隧道是高速公路事故多发路段,为了提高隧道路段行车安全性,需为驾驶员提供与一般路段相近的视觉环境,以有效减少由隧道行车环境变化引起的驾驶员判断和操作失误,逆反射技术在提高隧道路段驾驶员视觉舒适性方面具有潜力.为了确定隧道路段轮廓标设计方案,利用Smart-Eye Pro 5.7型眼动仪,对隧道路段逆反射轮廓标设置技术进行试验,获得了不同逆反射轮廓标组合方案的驾驶员视觉数据.结果表明,小型车和大型车驾驶员对逆反射轮廓标设置高度的视觉差异性明显,设置高度约为0.4 m的逆反射轮廓标对小型车驾驶员的视觉环境改善效果最佳,相应地,大型车约为1.0m.从控制隧道内明暗变化的闪频出发,轮廓标间距以15 m左右为宜.为满足驾驶员视觉舒适性要求,应将驾驶员瞳孔直径变化率控制在0.396 ～ 1.302mm/s,据此确定小型车适用的轮廓标反光膜为超强级,大型车为工程级.研究成果在G65高速公路木冲隧道的应用使驾驶员瞳孔直径变化率控制在1.302 mm/s以内,并使同期事故减少了51.8％.     

Assessment of Integrated Pedestrian Protection Systems with Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB) and Passive Safety Components

Objective: Autonomous emergency braking (AEB) systems fitted to cars for pedestrians have been predicted to offer substantial benefit. On this basis, consumer rating programs—for example, the European New Car Assessment Programme (Euro NCAP)—are developing rating schemes to encourage fitment of these systems. One of the questions that needs to be answered to do this fully is how the assessment of the speed reduction offered by the AEB is integrated with the current assessment of the passive safety for mitigation of pedestrian injury. Ideally, this should be done on a benefit-related basis.

The objective of this research was to develop a benefit-based methodology for assessment of integrated pedestrian protection systems with AEB and passive safety components. The method should include weighting procedures to ensure that it represents injury patterns from accident data and replicates an independently estimated benefit of AEB.

Methods: A methodology has been developed to calculate the expected societal cost of pedestrian injuries, assuming that all pedestrians in the target population (i.e., pedestrians impacted by the front of a passenger car) are impacted by the car being assessed, taking into account the impact speed reduction offered by the car's AEB (if fitted) and the passive safety protection offered by the car's frontal structure. For rating purposes, the cost for the assessed car is normalized by comparing it to the cost calculated for a reference car.

The speed reductions measured in AEB tests are used to determine the speed at which each pedestrian in the target population will be impacted. Injury probabilities for each impact are then calculated using the results from Euro NCAP pedestrian impactor tests and injury risk curves. These injury probabilities are converted into cost using “harm”-type costs for the body regions tested. These costs are weighted and summed. Weighting factors were determined using accident data from Germany and Great Britain and an independently estimated AEB benefit. German and Great Britain versions of the methodology are available. The methodology was used to assess cars with good, average, and poor Euro NCAP pedestrian ratings, in combination with a current AEB system. The fitment of a hypothetical A-pillar airbag was also investigated.

Results: It was found that the decrease in casualty injury cost achieved by fitting an AEB system was approximately equivalent to that achieved by increasing the passive safety rating from poor to average. Because the assessment was influenced strongly by the level of head protection offered in the scuttle and windscreen area, a hypothetical A-pillar airbag showed high potential to reduce overall casualty cost.

Conclusions: A benefit-based methodology for assessment of integrated pedestrian protection systems with AEB has been developed and tested. It uses input from AEB tests and Euro NCAP passive safety tests to give an integrated assessment of the system performance, which includes consideration of effects such as the change in head impact location caused by the impact speed reduction given by the AEB.     

Older Adults at Increased Risk as Pedestrians in Victoria,Australia: An Examination of Crash Characteristics and Injury Outcomes

Objectives: Engaging in active transport modes (especially walking) is a healthy and environmentally friendly alternative to driving and may be particularly beneficial for older adults. However, older adults are a vulnerable group: they are at higher risk of injury compared with younger adults, mainly due to frailty and may be at increased risk of collision due to the effects of age on sensory, cognitive, and motor abilities. Moreover, our population is aging, and there is a trend for the current cohort of older adults to maintain mobility later in life compared with previous cohorts. Though these trends have serious implications for transport policy and safety, little is known about the contributing factors and injury outcomes of pedestrian collision. Further, previous research generally considers the older population as a homogeneous group and rarely considers the increased risks associated with continued ageing.

Method: Collision characteristics and injury outcomes for 2 subgroups of older pedestrians (65–74 years and 75+ years) were examined by extracting data from the state police–reported crash dataset and hospital admission/emergency department presentation data over the 10-year period between 2003 and 2012. Variables identified for analysis included pedestrian characteristics (age, gender, activity, etc.), crash location and type, injury characteristics and severity, and duration of hospital stay. A spatial analysis of crash locations was also undertaken to identify collision clusters and the contribution of environmental features on collision and injury risk.

Results: Adults over 65 years were involved in 21% of all pedestrian collisions. A high fatality rate was found among older adults, particularly for those aged 75 years and older: this group had 3.2 deaths per 100,000 population, compared to a rate of 1.3 for 65- to 74-year-olds and 0.7 for adults below 65 years of age. Older pedestrian injuries were most likely to occur while crossing the carriageway; they were also more likely to be injured in parking lots, at driveway intersections, and on sidewalks compared to younger cohorts. Spatial analyses revealed older pedestrian crash clusters on arterial roads in urban shopping precincts. Significantly higher rates of hospital admissions were found for pedestrians over the age of 75 years and for abdominal, head, and neck injuries; conversely, older adults were underrepresented in emergency department presentations (mainly lower and upper extremity injuries), suggesting an increased severity associated with older pedestrian injuries. Average length of hospital stay also increased with increasing age.

Conclusion: This analysis revealed age differences in collision risk and injury outcomes among older adults and that aggregate analysis of older pedestrians can distort the significance of risk factors associated with older pedestrian injuries. These findings have implications that extend to the development of engineering, behavioral, and enforcement countermeasures to address the problems faced by the oldest pedestrians and reduce collision risk and improve injury outcomes.     

船舶载运煤炭甲烷释放特性研究

为了研究船舶载运煤炭甲烷释放规律,基于Fick扩散定律建立了货舱甲烷体积分数计算模型,分析了不同扩散系数条件下甲烷释放量与时间的关系,确定了空隙系数的取值范围,通过对某船舶煤炭运输过程中甲烷体积分数随船实测对模型进行了验证.结果表明,货舱甲烷体积分数随运输时间增加而增加,扩散系数为1.0×10-8 cm2/s时,甲烷释放量达到极大值;煤炭的空隙系数基本在0.53～ 0.57 m3/t之间.当煤炭极限甲烷解吸量为1.6 ～ 3.83 m3/t时,货舱甲烷最高体积分数在0.53％ ～ 1.22％,5个货舱中4个货舱的甲烷释放量与理论计算相吻合,1个货舱的最大甲烷释放量高出理论计算量6％,船运煤炭过程中的甲烷释放计算模型与实测结果较为吻合.对于甲烷体积分数超限的货舱,及时通风可使甲烷体积分数迅速降低,有效地解决船运煤炭过程中甲烷体积分数超限的问题.