基于Bow-tie模型的甲醇污水净化站风险分析

对甲醇污水净化站采用Bow-tie模型开展风险分析,辨识净化站存在的主要危险源,对危险源进行风险评估,分析各类屏障的有效性,制定管控措施,为进一步提高甲醇污水净化站安全管理水平,提升安全生产水平提供可借鉴的经验。     

Hazards from carbon dioxide capture, transport and storage

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a developing technology which raises a number of issues in terms of safety. CCS involves a chain of processes comprising capture of carbon dioxide, transport and injection into underground storage. In work carried out for the IEA Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme, a number of high-level hazard identification (HAZID) studies have been performed with the help of industry experts. The HAZIDs considered a carbon capture and storage chain involving capture, pipeline transport and injection. HAZID has been performed at a high-level for such a CCS chain with three types of capture technology and using pipeline transport. It is hoped that the results of the HAZID studies will be of use to those carrying out CCS projects, but should not be a substitute for them carrying out a full suite of integrated hazard management processes. A number of example hazards have been described to raise awareness of the range of hazards in a CCS process and to identify barriers which could prevent, minimise, control or mitigate CCS hazards. Bow-tie diagrams have been produced to record the information from this study and to organise it in a systematic way so that it is far less likely that contributors to and mitigators of hazards will be missed. The diagrams are available in Excel spreadsheet format so that they can be used as the starting point for development by specific CCS projects. CCS technology is still advancing and a number of knowledge gaps in terms of safety have been identified which require further development.     

基于蝴蝶结模型分析“11·22”东黄输油管道泄漏爆炸事故

为了找出"11·22"中石化东黄输油管道泄漏爆炸事故发生原因及有效预防措施,利用蝴蝶结模型将事故树与事件树结合分析事故发生原因及后果,研究企业和政府相关部门在输油管线管理及泄漏处理方面存在的问题,提出有效的防范措施,对提高类似事故的管理与应急处置能力有一定的意义。     

基于Bow-Tie技术的民用机场安全风险分析应用研究

民用运输机场具有运行环境复杂、事故成因复杂、驻场单位众多等特点,其事故成因更具有动态性、隐蔽性、综合性和因果连带性。因此,机场的日常运行安全风险分析一般需要借助多种工具才能完成。本文系统的介绍了一种实用的风险分析方法-Bow-tie风险技术,Bow-tie是一种风险分析和风险管理的工具,通过识别和评估风险、分析风险因素、设置风险屏障、采取风险控制和(减缓)恢复措施,有效预防事故发生。该方法可以对危害事件发生的原因、后果、屏障建立是否充足提供一个可视化的评估。本文就Bow-tie技术在民用机场安全风险中的具体实施步骤进行了描述,最后给出了其在民用机场风险分析中应用的一个实例,并就其可行性和实际应用进行了系统的研究。Bow-tie风险技术是集故障树、事件树和圆葱图理论相结合的系统风险分析及量化技术,对组织缺陷以及人为失误占主导因素的民用机场运行安全风险分析,具有较高的应用价值。     

基于Bow-tie模型的城镇输油管道风险评价方法研

根据近年来不断发生的城镇输油管道泄漏爆炸事故,提出将Bow-tie模型引入到风险评价中,将Bow-tie模型和改进的层次分析法相结合得出各影响因素的权重并排序,对管道进行风险评价,便于提出合理的安全管理方案,减少事故的发生。通过计算得到第三方因素在管道失效影响因素中占主导,而在事故后果分析中安全后果和环境后果因素影响较大,基本符合事故实际状况,说明该方法对于城镇输油管道风险分析有一定的指导意义和实用价值。     

Integrating lean principles and fuzzy bow-tie analysis for risk assessment in chemical industry

In this research, a framework combining lean manufacturing principles and fuzzy bow-tie analyses is used to assess process risks in chemical industry. Lean manufacturing tools and techniques are widely used for eliminating wastes in manufacturing environments. The five principles of lean (identify value, map the value stream, create flow, establish pull, and seek perfection) are utilized in the risk assessment process. Lean tools such as Fishbone Diagram, and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) are used for risk analysis and mitigation. Lean principles and tools are combined with bow-tie analysis for effective risk assessment process. The uncertainty inherent with the risks is handled using fuzzy logic principles. A case study from a chemical process industry is provided. Main risks and risk factors are identified and analyzed by the risk management team. Fuzzy estimates are obtained for the risk factors and bow-tie analysis is used to calculate the aggregated risk probability and impact. The risks are prioritized using risk priority matrix and mitigation strategies are selected based on FMEA. Results showed that the proposed framework can effectively improve the risk management process in the chemical industry.