学校突发事件应急管理与预案模式探讨

学校应急管理是国家公共危机管理的组成部分,关系到家庭和社会的和谐和稳定。本文介绍了国内外学校应急管理现状,提出目前我国学校应急管理中存在的问题,借鉴国外发达国家应急管理的模式与经验,针对我国学校应急救援管理工作与预案模式提出建议和模式示例。     

民用机场不安全事件管理系统的分析和设计

根据《机场安全管理体系建设指南》关于机场管理机构应当建立健全安全信息管理制度的监管需求,分析了机场不安全事件管理系统的结构,提出了机场不安全事件管理系统的总体框架。系统采用B/S模式,分为机场员工、驻场单位、机场安全管理部门三级用户,包括事件信息管理、调查分析、风险管理、信息共享等功能模块。本系统实现了机场不安全事件的信息化管理。系统的应用将有效地改善机场安全管理的手段,大大提高安全管理的效率和水平。     

民航事故征候的灰色马尔可夫预测

民航事故征候的分析和预测是民航安全研究的重要内容.掌握民航事故征候的发展状况并据此提出相应的安全措施,可减少民航事故的发生.在民航事故征候灰色预测基础上,引入马尔可夫链(Markov Chains)预测理论,建立事故征候的灰色马尔可夫预测模型.该模型具有灰色预测和马尔可夫链预测的优点,不仅提高了对波动性较大的随机变量的预测精度,同时还拓宽了灰色预测的应用范围.对某一航空公司过载大事件的灰色马尔可夫预测和检验分析表明,事故征候的灰色马尔可夫预测模型精度高于GM(1,1)模型预测精度.研究表明,灰色马尔可夫预测模型可用于民航事故征候的预测.     

公路突发交通事件应急资源配置效率研究*

为合理有效配置公路突发事件下的应急资源,从资源投入与产出角度建立3级评价指标体系,在此基础上将应急资源投入与产出比作为目标函数,引入数据包络分析法构建应急资源配置效率模型,采用TOPSIS法对应急资源配置方案效率进行排序。以新疆10个公路局应急资源配置效率为例,分析其资源投入与产出的冗余度,并对有效决策单元进行排序。结果表明:该模型能获得应急资源配置冗余度,并对其进行资源配置效率分析,从而为公路局进行有效资源配置提供参考。     

应对突发事件主要特征及中国石油应急管理体系建设

应对突发事件及中国石油应急管理体系建设受到了高度重视。分析了国际社会应对突发事件的现状及我国应急管理的主要特征;概述了中国石油应急管理体系建设情况,从应急组织体系、制度体系、预案体系、保障体系以及技术支撑体系建设方面对应急管理现状进行综合分析。表明:国际社会已形成应对突发事件的体制、机制和战略对策;我国政府在生产事故、自然灾害、公共卫生、社会安全4种类型突发事件应对上已具有一定的能力;中国石油应急管理在应对各类型重大突发事件中成效明显,并形成相对完整的应急管理体系。     

基于环境恢复的环境污染损害责任与建立

环境本身损害的责任缺失是我国环境污染管理中亟待解决的突出问题。文章从社会经济系统与其支撑环境间作用关系过程链的三个响应环节出发,分析了建立环境本身损害责任机制的作用、意义及环境本身损害赔偿的内涵与构成。提出了围绕突发性污染排放问题,以恢复环境为目标,衔接我国环境应急管理系统实施环境本身损害责任的构架。结合突发性污染排放建立环境损害的恢复责任,对推进环境污染损害管理和深化污染事故应急处置具有重要支持作用。     

Mass casualty incident after the Taba terrorist attack: an organisational and medical challenge

Two suicide bombings in and around Taba, Egypt, on 7 October 2004 created a complex medical and organisational situation. Since most victims were Israeli tourists, the National Emergency and Disaster Management Division handled their evacuation and treatment. This paper describes the event chronologically, as well as the organisational and management challenges confronted and applied solutions. Forty-nine emergency personnel and physicians were flown early to the disaster area to reinforce scarce local medical resources. Two hundred casualties were recorded: 32 dead and 168 injured. Eilat hospital was transformed into a triage facility. Thirty-two seriously injured patients were flown to two remote trauma centres in central Israel. Management of mass casualty incidents is difficult when local resources are inadequate. An effective response should include: rapid transportation of experienced trauma teams to the disaster zone; conversion of local medical amenities into a triage centre; and rapid evacuation of the seriously injured to higher level medical facilities.     

突发环境污染事件对湖泊浮游动物的影响

中国北方某地空难对某湖泊浮游动物的种类、群落结构、优势种和个体密度及其空间分布产生了重要影响.基于浮游动物的水质生物学评价显示:①该湖泊有浮游动物24种,其中原生动物9种,优势种为累枝虫;轮虫7种,优势种为萼花臂尾轮虫;枝角类4种,优势种为直额裸腹;桡足类4种,优势种为直刺北镖水蚤;浮游动物优势种多为α-中污带或β-中污带的指示种类和富营养化指示种类. ②浮游动物个体密度(4 770 L-1)较小且分布不均匀,空难事故发生地及其附近区域的种类数和个体密度均为最低值,桡足类在其中4个样点没有出现. ③浮游动物的Shannon-Wiener多样性指数略高于1,结合浮游动物个体密度、群落结构、优势门类和种类,可以认为该湖泊水体污染和富营养化程度比较严重,这一结果与该湖泊水质理化评价结果(1.030 5)基本一致.      

Surveillance of traffic incident management–related occupational fatalities in Kentucky, 2005–2016

Objective: Traffic incidents occurring on roadways require the coordinated effort of multiple responder and recovery entities, including communications, law enforcement, fire and rescue, emergency medical services, hazardous materials, transportation agencies, and towing and recovery. The objectives of this study were to (1) identify and characterize transportation incident management (TIM)-related occupational fatalities; (2) assess concordance of surveillance data sources in identifying TIM occupations, driver vs. pedestrian status, and occupational fatality incident location; and (3) determine and compare U.S. occupational fatality rates for TIM industries.

Methods: The Kentucky Fatality Assessment and Control Evaluation (FACE) program analyzed 2005–2016 TIM occupational fatality data using multiple data sources: death certificate data, Collision Report Analysis for Safer Highways (CRASH) data, and media reports, among others. Literal text analysis was performed on FACE data, and a multiple linear regression model and SAS proc sgpanel were used to estimate and visualize the U.S. TIM occupational mortality trend lines and confidence bounds.

Results: There were 29 TIM fatalities from 2005 to 2015 in Kentucky; 41% of decedents were in the police protection occupation, and 21% each were in the fire protection and motor vehicle towing industries. Over one half of the TIM decedents were performing work activities as pedestrians when they died. Media reports identified the majority of the occupational fatalities as TIM related (28 of 29 TIM-related deaths); the use of death certificates as the sole surveillance data source only identified 17 of the 29 deaths as TIM related, and the use of CRASH data only identified 4 of the 29 deaths as TIM related. Injury scenario text analysis showed that law enforcement vehicle pursuit, towing and recovery vehicle loading, and disabled vehicle response were particular high-risk activities that led to TIM deaths. Using U.S. data, the motor vehicle towing industry had a significantly higher risk for occupational mortality compared to the fire protection and police protection industries.

Conclusions: Multiple data sources are needed to comprehensively identify TIM fatalities and to examine the circumstances surrounding TIM fatalities, because no one data source in itself was adequate and undercounted the total number of TIM fatalities. The motor vehicle towing industry, in particular, is at elevated risk for occupational mortality, and targeted mandatory TIM training for the motor vehicle towing industry should be considered. In addition, enhanced law enforcement roadside safety training during vehicle pursuit and apprehension of suspects is recommended.     

城市水源地突发性水污染事件研究述评

日益恶化的突发性水污染事件始终是国内外大多数城市水源地安全和城市供水安全的重要威胁.从城市水源地突发性污染事件的风险源、水源地易损性、应急评估和预警技术及应急机制4个方面综述了国内外城市水源地突发性污染事件的研究进展.述评认为,应关注城市水源地的特殊易损性及突发性污染的威胁,重点研究水源地突发性污染事件的快速评估和预警技术及应急机制,全面开展城市水源地突发性污染事件的基础和实例研究.