Newspaper response to flood and erosion hazards on the North Lake Erie shore

The study is primarily concerned with newspaper responses to flooding and erosion associated with Great Lakes high water in 1952–1953 and 1972–1974. Underlying the research is a general interest in informing the public more widely on choices available in resource and environmental decision making.     

The role of stand history in assessing forest impacts

Air pollution, harvesting practices, and natural disturbances can affect the growth of trees and forest development. To make predictions about anthropogenic impacts on forests, we need to understand how these factors affect tree growth. In this study the effect of disturbance history on tree growth and stand structure was examined by using a computer model of forest development. The model was run under the climatic conditions of east Tennessee, USA, and the results compared to stand structure and tree growth data from a yellow poplar-white oak forest. Basal area growth and forest biomass were more accurately projected when rough approximations of the thinning and fire history typical of the measured plots were included in the simulation model. Stand history can influence tree growth rates and forest structure and should be included in any attempt to assess forest impacts.     

基于数量化理论Ⅱ的鄂西北山区坡面土壤侵蚀强度评价

水土流失既是资源问题，又是生态环境问题。土壤侵蚀对人类生存和发展构成了严重威胁，成为制约可持续发展的障碍因素。以鄂西北丹江口库区郧西县坡面径流小区为试验点，通过分析小区的实地观测数据，建立坡面土壤侵蚀定性评价指标体系，并将数量化理论II作为有效的数学方法，建立郧西县坡面径流小区土壤侵蚀强度评价模型，对参与建立模型的样本进行回归分析，其准判率达到800%以上，并且利用该模型对其他年份坡面土壤侵蚀强度实测数据进行对比验证，得到土壤侵蚀强度分级的精度较高。研究表明，建立的郧西县坡面径流小区土壤侵蚀强度评价模型有较好的适用性与可靠性，可为郧西县及类似自然地理环境的其他区域水保工作起到一定指导意义     

安全文化的激励机制在企业中的应用

通过行为模型,分析了企业中安全管理者与职工心态对立的原因,认为目前管理者奖罚手段运用失衡是产生这种局面的重要原因。从安全文化的角度提出了相应对策。     

圆柱体相似试件的拉裂破坏模型研究

首先简单介绍了单轴压缩试验的具体情况。对于拉裂破坏模式,提出了相应的力学计算模型,并建立了抗压强度和抗拉强度的关系式。对于由拉裂面的存在而导致试件最终破坏的计算模型,提出了4种相应的假设。其中,对4种特征的拉裂面建立了抗压强度和抗拉强度的关系式。     

火力发电厂安全现状评价模式探讨

以火电厂现状评价为例,探索火力发电厂安全现状评价模式。     

Rethinking receiver operating characteristic analysis applications in ecological niche modeling

The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) has become a dominant tool in evaluating the accuracy of models predicting distributions of species. ROC has the advantage of being threshold-independent, and as such does not require decisions regarding thresholds of what constitutes a prediction of presence versus a prediction of absence. However, we show that, comparing two ROCs, using the AUC systematically undervalues models that do not provide predictions across the entire spectrum of proportional areas in the study area. Current ROC approaches in ecological niche modeling applications are also inappropriate because the two error components are weighted equally. We recommend a modification of ROC that remedies these problems, using partial-area ROC approaches to provide a firmer foundation for evaluation of predictions from ecological niche models. A worked example demonstrates that models that are evaluated favorably by traditional ROC AUCs are not necessarily the best when niche modeling considerations are incorporated into the design of the test.     

基于BP神经网络的苯储罐泄漏事故风险评价模型研究

为了在事故发生之前对苯储罐进行风险评价，提出1种基于BP神经网络的泄漏事故风险评价方法，利用该方法构建了苯储罐的风险评价模型，并对模型进行了训练及验证。研究结果表明:BP神经网络成功完成了建模任务，且模型训练结果较好，可利用基于BP神经网络所构建的苯泄漏事故风险评价模型对苯储罐发生泄漏事故的风险进行评价。     

Applying integrated assessment methodologies to air quality plans: Two European cases

Air pollution Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) can be used for determining how emissions should be reduced to improve air quality and to protect human health in a cost-efficient way. The application of IAM is also useful to spread information to the general public and to explain the effectiveness of proposed Air Quality Plans. In this paper, the application of the RIAT+ system to determine suitable abatement measures to improve the air quality at a regional/local level is presented for two European cases: the Brussels Capital Region (Belgium) and the Porto Urban Area (Portugal). Both regions are affected with PM10 or NO₂ concentrations that exceed the limit values specified by the European Union legislation. To properly assess air quality abatement measures a surrogate model was used, allowing the implementation of an efficient optimization procedure. This model is derived in both cases through a set of simulations performed using a Chemistry Transport Model fed with different emission reduction scenarios. In addition, internal costs (due to the implementation of emission reduction measures) and external costs (due to population exposure to air pollutant concentrations) of policy options were considered. The application of this integrated assessment modelling system in scenario (Brussels case) and optimization (Porto) modes contributes to identifying some advantages and limitations of these two approaches and also provides some guidance when urban air quality has to be assessed.