Methodology for risk assessment of COVID-19 pandemic propagation

This paper proposes a methodology to perform risk analysis of the virus spread. It is based on the coupling between CFD modelling of bioaerosol dispersion to the calculation of probability of contact events. CFD model of near-field sneeze droplets dispersion is developed to build the SARS-CoV-2 effect zones and to adequately capture the safe distance. The most shared classification of droplets size distribution of sneezes was used.Droplets were modeled through additive heating/evaporation/boiling laws and their impact on the continuous phase was examined. Larger droplets move behind the droplet nuclei front and exhibit greater vertical drop due to the effect of gravity. CFD simulations provided the iso-risk curves extension (i.e., the maximum distance as well as the angle) enclosed by the incident outcome effect zone. To calculate the risk indexes, a fault tree was developed and the probability of transmission assuming as of the top event “COVID-19 infection” was calculated starting from the virus spread curve, as main base case. Four phases of virus spread evolution were identified: initiation, propagation, generalised propagation and termination. For each phase, the maximum allowable close contact was computed, being fixed the values of the acceptable risk index. In particular, it was found that during the propagation case, the maximum allowable close contacts is two, suggesting that at this point lockdown should be activated. The here developed methodology could drive policy containment design to curb spread COVID-19 infection.     

疫情期间人为源减排对城市大气氧化性的影响

近年来,中国经济发达地区以细颗粒物（PM_2.5）和臭氧（O₃）共同引发的区域性复合型大气污染事件频发,大气氧化性（AOC）在其中发挥着重要作用.基于WRF-CMAQ模型,以2020年疫情管控期为案例探究人为源减排对AOC的影响,选取中国东部3个典型城市（石家庄、南京和广州）进行深入分析,量化排放变化及气象变化对氧化剂和AOC变化的贡献,探讨AOC变化对二次污染物生成的影响.结果表明,与2019年同期相比,2020年石家庄、南京和广州的城市平均AOC分别增加了60%、48.7%和12.6%;氧化剂臭氧、羟基自由基和硝酸根自由基的浓度均有不同程度的增加（1.6%~26.4%、14.8%~73.3%和37.9%~180%）.排放变化使3个城市AOC分别增加了0.06×10^-4、0.12×10^-4和0.33×10^-4 min^-1,气象变化导致石家庄和南京AOC增加（分别为20%和17.9%）,但在广州却相反（-9.3%）.增强的AOC导致氮氧化速率和挥发性有机物氧化速率升高,即促进了一次污染物向二次污染物的转化,并抵消了部分一次减排的影响,造成了管控期间二次污染物相对排放的非线性变化.     

Linking empirical estimates of body burden of environmental chemicals and wellness using NHANES data

Biomonitoring of industrial chemicals in human tissues and fluids has shown that all people carry a “body burden” of synthetic chemicals. Although measurement of an environmental chemical in a person's tissues/fluids is an indication of exposure, it does not necessarily mean the exposure concentration is sufficient to cause an adverse effect. Since humans are exposed to multiple chemicals, there may be a combination effect (e.g., additive, synergistic) associated with low-level exposures to multiple classes of contaminants, which may impact a variety of organ systems. The objective of this research is to link measures of body burden of environmental chemicals and a “holistic” measure of wellness. The approach is demonstrated using biomonitoring data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES). Forty-two chemicals were selected for analysis based on their detection levels. Six biological pathway-specific indices were evaluated using groups of chemicals associated with each pathway. Five of the six pathways were negatively associated with wellness. Three non-zero interaction terms were detected which may provide empirical evidence of crosstalk across pathways. The approach identified five of the 42 chemicals from a variety of classes (metals, pesticides, furans, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) as accounting for 71% of the weight linking body burden to wellness. Significant interactions were detected indicating the effect of smoking is exacerbated by body burden of environmental chemicals. Use of a holistic index on both sides of the exposure-health equation is a novel and promising empirical “systems biology” approach to risk evaluation of complex environmental exposures.     

基于社会燃烧理论的突发公共卫生事件网络情绪传播模型

为有效引导和管控突发公共卫生事件网络舆情,考虑社会相关性和网络群体间情绪状态转移的不确定性,基于社会燃烧理论研究突发公共卫生事件网络情绪传播机制.首先基于社会燃烧理论分析网络用户群体的社会影响因素,建立未燃-阴燃-燃烧-抑燃-稳定(UDBFS)网络情绪传播模型和考虑干预措施的网络情绪传播模型;然后以新冠肺炎(COVID...     

疫情前后太原市主城区空气质量时空变化特征及影响因素研究

深入探讨城市新冠疫情管控期间大气环境质量及影响因素,对空气质量的改善与治理具有重要意义。以太原市主城区为研究对象,采用克里金插值法、Pearson相关性分析、HYSPLIT轨迹模型对太原市主城区2022年疫情前后空气质量时空变化特征及影响因素进行研究。结果表明：（1）在时间上,O₃浓度呈逐月递增趋势。其他污染物在管控期间浓度有所下降,与2021年同期相比,PM_2.5下降了23.6%,PM₁₀下降了32.7%,NO₂下降了2.6%。（2）在空间分布上,PM_2.5、CO、SO₂呈“西北低、东南高”的分布特点,PM₁₀浓度则呈“西部低、东部高”的特点。（3）太原市污染物在疫情前及管控期间主要受来自西北方向长距离传输及山西省内晋中地区短距离传输影响。在常态化时期,气流轨迹更分散,来自晋中市和临汾市的短距离传输占比最高,为21.45%。（4）管控期间重点工业企业仍保持较快增长,工业用电量达到28.33亿kW·h,工业活动受管控影响较小;但移动源污染排放减少,缓解了大气污染。     

The secret life of pets: The intersection of animals and organizational life

Although often overlooked, pets and other animals intersect with organizations in interesting, important ways. We seek to define how various animals intersect with organizations, highlight opportunities for theory development, and illustrate important areas for future research. We also explore how pandemics such as COVID-19 might affect the animals we highlight.     

上海市PM2.5中重金属元素对COVID-19控制的高频响应

为研究城市大气重金属元素在新冠控制前、中（与春节重叠）、后的演化和来源,利用多金属在线分析仪于2020年1月1日至2月26日测定了上海市PM_2.5中重金属元素的小时浓度.利用PMF模型确定了8个来源.结果表明,大部分元素的浓度呈现"V"字型的变化趋势,主要受烟花爆竹（特征性元素有K、Cu、Ba）、Se工业、道路扬尘（Ca、Fe、Ba）和机动车（Mn、Zn、Fe、Cu）等排放源影响.但在新冠控制期间,K、Ba和Cu浓度仍较高.以Cu元素为例的特殊事件分析表明,其浓度高值在控制期前显著受到外来传输的影响,在控制期内主要来自于本地烟花爆竹排放的影响.     

2018~2020年北京市交通监测站点大气污染特征分析

基于北京市34个空气质量监测站点收集的5种主要污染物浓度（NO₂、CO、O₃、PM_2.5、PM₁₀）数据,对2018~2020年北京市5个交通站点污染物浓度进行分析,并与11个城市评价站点及2个背景点（密云水库、定陵）进行对比.结果表明：（1）3a间各污染物浓度年际变化总体呈下降趋势,除PM₁₀外,交通站点各污染物浓度降幅均大于城市评价站点.2020年交通站点NO₂降幅最大,比2018年下降了31.37%.除个别时期外,5种污染物浓度在交通站点比城市评价站点普遍高出3%~50%.且以NO₂最为突出.（2）2018~2020年各监测站点不同污染物浓度的季节变化特征表现不同.O₃夏季高、冬季低,最高值出现在2018年6月;其余4种污染物浓度基本表现为冬季高、夏季低;2018年3月受沙尘及不利气象条件影响,污染物浓度出现了极高值.（3）为研究新冠肺炎疫情对交通污染排放的影响,比较了5种污染物的浓度变化.与2019年同期相比,疫情后三个阶段的NO₂下降最为显著.交通站点NO₂、CO、PM_2.5平均降幅比城市评价站点高出了4.81%、10.21%、4.38%.     

Significant concurrent decrease in PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations in China during COVID-19 epidemic

The strict control measures and social lockdowns initiated to combat COVID-19 epidemic have had a notable impact on air pollutant concentrations. According to observation data obtained from the China National Environmental Monitoring Center, compared to levels in 2019, the average concentration of NO₂ in early 2020 during COVID-19 epidemic has decreased by 53%, 50%, and 30% in Wuhan city, Hubei Province (Wuhan excluded), and China (Hubei excluded), respectively. Simultaneously, PM_2.5 concentration has decreased by 35%, 29%, and 19% in Wuhan, Hubei (Wuhan excluded), and China (Hubei excluded), respectively. Less significant declines have also been found for SO₂ and CO concentrations. We also analyzed the temporal variation and spatial distribution of air pollutant concentrations in China during COVID-19 epidemic. The decreases in PM_2.5 and NO₂ concentrations showed relatively consistent temporal variation and spatial distribution. These results support control of NO_x to further reduce PM_2.5 pollution in China. The concurrent decrease in NO_x and PM_2.5 concentrations resulted in an increase of O₃ concentrations across China during COVID-19 epidemic, indicating that coordinated control of other pollutants is needed.     

疫情期间“2+26”城市污染减排成效评估

为评估“2+26”城市在疫情期间的减排效果,基于NAQPMS模式和情景模拟的方法,分析了2020年1~3月及疫情前后空气质量特征,对气象、重污染应急减排措施及社会经济活动对空气质量的影响和研究的不确定性进行了分析讨论.结果表明,2020年1~3月,“2+26”城市空气质量级别优良率为59.6%,同比上升10.9%;PM₁₀、PM_2.5、SO₂、NO₂、O₃-8h-90per和CO-95per平均浓度分别为108,76,14,36,109μg/m³和2.3mg/m³.疫情期间（1月24日~3月31日） PM₁₀、NO₂、PM_2.5和CO浓度比疫情前期（1月1~23日）同比降幅明显.气象条件造成沿燕山和太行山城市PM_2.5浓度约上升1%~8%.重污染减排促使区域性污染过程减少了2次,“2+26”城市PM_2.5季度均值降低约6~26 μg/m³.受春节和疫情综合影响,机动车排放量大幅下降,但焦化、火电等重点行业实际污染排放量变化不大,散煤燃烧对空气质量的负面影响增加.