Viability Analysis of Reef Fish Populations Based on Limited Demographic Information

Abstract:  Marine protected areas (MPAs) that allow some degree of artisanal fishing have been proposed to control the overexploitation of marine resources while allowing extraction by local communities. Nevertheless, the management of MPAs is often impaired by the absence of data on the status of their resources. We devised a method to estimate population growth rates with the type of data that are usually available for reef fishes. We used 7 years of spatially explicit abundance data on the leopard grouper ( Mycteroperca rosacea ) in an MPA in the Gulf of California, Mexico, to construct a matrix population model that incorporated the effects of El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation on population dynamics. An environmental model that estimated different demographic estimates for El Niño and La Niña periods performed better than a single-environment model, and a single-habitat model performed better than a model that considered different depths as different habitats. Our results suggest that the population of the leopard grouper off the main island of the MPA is not viable under present conditions. Although the impact of fishing on leopard grouper populations in the MPA has not yet been established, fishing should be closed as a precautionary measure at this island if a priority of the MPA is to ensure the sustainability of its fish populations.     

Assessing flood mitigation,management, and enforcement using insurance data,California and the USA

Previous research found that National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) premiums collected in some U.S. states, including California, have far exceeded damage payments. However, this finding raises the question of whether such an imbalance represents systematically good flood management or, instead, merely short-term hydrologic good luck. This study investigated patterns in flood losses on structures that pre-date and post-date the first available flood maps (“pre-Flood Insurance Rate Map [FIRM]” vs. “post-FIRM”) in California, several peer states, and nationwide. California has a larger inheritance of pre-FIRM structures than the national average, apparently reflecting development during the latter half of the 20th Century but before most Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps. Pre-FIRM properties are a disproportionate cost burden on the system, and the number of pre-FIRM policies has declined over time, but only slowly. Local patterns in pre-FIRM claims suggest targeted areas for enhanced mitigation efforts, including buyouts. Conversely, we find that claims on post-FIRM policies are a reasonable metric of good floodplain management and enforcement, and California's 38% of post-FIRM policies generated just 24% of the state's NFIP claims. Local “post-FIRM claim hotspots” suggest areas to examine more closely. California continues to be a net payer into the National Flood Insurance Program, with $102 million in payouts 2009–2018 versus $2.3 billion in premiums collected, or 4.5 cents of premiums collected for every dollar of premiums. In California, its peer states, and nationwide, future management of flood risk depends on: (1) continued investment in flood control and mitigation of existing floodplain structures, and (2) prudent planning and limitations on new floodplain and coastal development.     

Just Add Water and the Colorado River Still Reaches the Sea

A recent article in Environmental Management by All argued that flood flows in North America’s Colorado River do not reach the Gulf of California because they are captured and evaporated in Laguna Salada, a below sea-level lakebed near the mouth of the river. We refute this hypothesis by showing that (1) due to its limited area, the Laguna Salada could have evaporated less than 10% of the flood flows that have occurred since 1989; (2) low flow volumes preferentially flow to the Gulf rather than Laguna Salada; (3) All’s method for detecting water surface area in the Laguna Salada appears to be flawed because Landsat Thematic Mapper images of the lakebed show it to be dry when All’s analyses said it was flooded; (4) direct measurements of salinity at the mouth of the river and in the Upper Gulf of California during flood flows in 1993 and 1998 confirm that flood waters reach the sea; and (5) stable oxygen isotope signatures in clam shells and fish otoliths recorded the dilution of seawater with fresh water during the 1993 and 1998 flows. Furthermore, All’s conclusion that freshwater flows do not benefit the ecology of the marine zone is incorrect because the peer-reviewed literature shows that postlarval larval shrimp populations increase during floods, and the subsequent year’s shrimp harvest increases. Furthermore, freshwater flows increase the nursery area for Gulf corvina (Cynoscion othonopterus), an important commercial fish that requires estuarine habitats with salinities in the range of 26–38‰ during its natal stages. Although flood flows are now much diminished compared to the pre-dam era, they are still important to the remnant wetland and riparian habitats of the Colorado River delta and to organisms in the intertidal and marine zone. Only a small fraction of the flood flows are evaporated in Laguna Salada.     

DISSOLVED OXYGEN IN INTRAGRAVEL WATER OF THREE TRIBUTARIES TO REDWOOD CREEK,HUMBOLDT COUNTY,CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: As part of a study of Redwood National Park in north-western California, an investigation was conducted from June to November 1974 on intragravel dissolved oxygen and sediment in three tributaries to Redwood Creek, a major coastal stream that flows through Redwood National Park. Of concern was whether the intragravel environment of streams in logged and unlogged redwood-forested drainage basins was different. The tributary in the unlogged drainage basin had lower percentages of fine streambed sediment than either of the tributaries in logged drainage basins. Concentration and percentage saturation of dissolved oxygen of intragravel water were highest in the stream in the unlogged drainage basin, intermediate in the stream in the patch-cut drainage basin, and lowest in the stream in the clear-cut drainage basin. The differences in intragravel dissolved-oxygen conditions among the three tributaries are attributed chiefly to differences in their interchange of surface and intragravel water. The larger quantities of fine streambed sediment in the two streams in logged basins may have reduced the permeability of the streambeds and hence their capacity to interchange surface and intragravel water. However, differences in the lithology of the three tributary drainage basins examined may contribute to the differences in the percentage of fine sediments observed among the streams, even in the absence of logging.     

THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING STREAMFLOW FROM SIERRA NEVADA WATERSHEDS1

The Sierra Nevada produces over 50 percent of California's water. Improvement of water yields from the Sierra Nevada through watershed management has long been suggested as a means of augmenting the state's water supply. Vegetation and snowpack management can increase runoff from small watersheds by reducing losses due to evapotranspiration, snow interception by canopy, and snow evaporation. Small clearcuts or group selection cuts creating openings less than half a hectare, with the narrow dimension from south to north, appear to be ideal for both increasing and delaying water delivery in the red fir-lodgepole pine and mixed-conifer types of the Sierra west slope. Such openings can have up to 40 percent more snow-water equivalent than does uncut forest. However, the water yield increase drops to 1/2-2 percent of current yield for an entire management unit, due to the small number of openings that can be cut at one time, physical and management constraints, and multiple use/sustained yield guidelines. As a rough forecast, water production from National Forest land in the Sierra Nevada can probably be increased by about 1 percent (0.6 cm) under intensive forest watershed management. Given the state of reservoir storage and water use in California, delaying streamflow is perhaps the greatest contribution watershed management can make to meeting future water demands.     

Electricity price and Southern California’s water supply options

This paper evaluates the impact of fluctuating electricity prices on the cost of five options to increase the water supply to urban areas in Southern California—new surface storage, water purchases, desalination, wastewater recycling, and conservation.We show that the price of electricity required to produce and transport water influences the cost of water supply options and may alter the decision makers economic ranking of these options. When electricity prices are low, water purchase is the cost effective option. When prices exceed US$ 86/MWh, conservation of electricity and water through installation of high efficiency clothes washers is the most effective option.     

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS UNCERTAINTY FOR WATER RESOURCES IN THE SAN JOAQUIN RIVER BASIN,CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: A climate change impacts assessment for water resources in the San Joaquin River region of California is presented. Regional climate projections are based on a 1 percent per year CO₂ increase relative to late 20th Century CO₂ conditions. Two global projections of this CO₂ increase scenario are considered (HadCM2 and PCM) during two future periods (2010 to 2039 and 2050 to 2079). HadCM2 projects faster warming than PCM. HadCM2 and PCM project wetter and drier conditions, respectively, relative to present climate. In the HadCM2 case, there would be increased reservoir inflows, increased storage limited by existing capacity, and increased releases for deliveries and river flows. In the PCM case, there would be decreased reservoir inflows, decreased storage and releases, and decreased deliveries. Impacts under either projection case cannot be regarded as more likely than the other. Most of the impacts uncertainty is attributable to the divergence in the precipitation projections. The range of assessed impacts is too broad to guide selection of mitigation projects. Regional planning agencies can respond by developing contingency strategies for these cases and applying the methodology herein to evaluate a broader set of CO₂ scenarios, land use projections, and operational assumptions. Improved agency access to climate projection information is necessary to support this effort.     

The US Clean Water Act and habitat replacement: evaluation of mitigation sites in Orange County,California, USA

Both permit requirements and ecological assessments have been used to evaluate mitigation success. This analysis combines these two approaches to evaluate mitigation required under Section 404 of the United States Clean Water Act (CWA) and Section 10 of the Rivers and Harbors Act, which allow developers to provide compensatory mitigation for unavoidable impacts to wetlands. This study reviewed permit files and conducted field assessments of mitigation sites to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation required by the US Army Corps of Engineers for all permits issued in Orange County, California from 1979 through 1993. The 535 permit actions approved during this period allowed 157 ha of impacts. Mitigation was required on 70 of these actions, with 152 ha of enhanced, restored, and created habitat required for 136 ha of impacts. In 15 permit actions, no mitigation project was constructed, but in only two cases was the originally permitted project built; the two cases resulted in an unmitigated loss of 1.6 ha. Of the remaining 55 sites, 55% were successful at meeting the permit conditions while 11% failed to do so. Based on a qualitative assessment of habitat quality, only 16% of the sites could be considered successful and 26% were considered failures. Thus, of the 126 ha of habitat lost due to the 55 projects, only 26 ha of mitigation was considered successful. The low success rate was not due to poor enforcement, although nearly half of the projects did not comply with all permit conditions. Mitigation success could best be improved by requiring mitigation plans to have performance standards based on habitat functions.     

Inventory of ocean monitoring in the Southern California Bight

Monitoring of the ocean environment in southern California, USA, has been conducted by a diverse array of public and private organizations with different motivations, working on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. To create a basis from which to integrate information from these diverse programs, we conducted an inventory of ocean monitoring activities in the Southern California Bight to address the following questions: (1) How much money is being expended annually on marine monitoring programs? (2) Which organizations are conducting the most monitoring? (3) How are resources allocated among the different types of monitoring programs? This inventory focused on programs existing, or those expected to be in existence, for at least 10 years and that were active at any time between 1994 and 1997. For each program identified for inclusion in this study, information was collected on the number of sites, sampling intensity, parameters measured, and methods used. Levels of effort were translated into cost estimates based upon a market survey of local consulting firms. One hundred fourteen marine monitoring programs, conducted by 65 organizations and costing US $31 million annually, were identified. Most of the effort (81 programs, 65% of samples, 70% of costs) was expended by ocean dischargers as part of their compliance with National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit requirements. Federal programs (11 programs, 25% of samples, 10% of total expenditures) expended more than state or local government programs. More than one quarter of monitoring expenditures were conducted to measure concentrations and mass of effluent inputs to the ocean. The largest effort expended on receiving water monitoring was for measuring bacteria, followed by sediments, fish/shellfish, water quality, and intertidal habitats. The large level of expenditures by individual agencies has presented opportunities for integrating small, site-specific ocean monitoring programs into regional- and national-scale monitoring and assessment programs.     

Indicators Assessment for Habitat Conservation Plan of Yolo County, California, USA

/ Whereas habitat conservation plans (HCPs) have been intended to provide comprehensive environmental mitigation for multiple species, they often narrow in focus to one species and either one mitigation site or unspecified sites. We developed an indicators framework from which to rate land units for their ecological integrity, collateral values (nonbiological qualities that can improve conservation), and restoration and conservation opportunities. The ratings of land units were guided by the tenets of conservation biology and principles of landscape and ecosystem ecology, and they were made using existing physical and floral information managed on a GIS. As an example of how the indicators approach can be used for HCPs, the 29 legally rare species targeted by the Yolo County HCP were each associated with vegetation complexes and agricultural crops, the maps of which were used for rating some of the landscape indices. The ratings were mapped so that mitigation can be directed to the places on the landscape where the legally rare species should benefit most from conservation practices. The most highly rated land units for conservation opportunity occurred along streams and sloughs, especially where they emerged from the foothills and entered the Central Valley and where the two largest creeks intersected the Sacramento River flood basin. We recommend that priority be given to mitigation or conservation at the most highly rated land units. The indices were easy to measure and can be used with other tools to monitor the mitigation success. The indicators framework can be applied to other large-area planning efforts with some modifications.KEY WORDS: Ecosystem; Indicators; Landscape; Mitigation; Planning; Yolo County; California