美国加州南岸地区空气质量预报系统运行管理与借鉴

借鉴美国加州南岸空气质量预报经验,特别是其运行管理模式对于现阶段中国城市环境空气质量预测预报具有极高的参考价值。简要介绍了加州南岸空气质量管理局(SCAQMD)空气质量预报业务流程、技术方法、信息发布方式和预报效果评估策略。建议从4个方面借鉴SCAQMD经验:(1)建立相对完善的空气质量预报体系,分层级自上而下指导预报工作;(2)选择合适的空气质量预报方法,综合统筹成本-效益评估工作;(3)评估预报效果进而提高预报准确率;(4)在优化空气质量预报能力的基础上,有序开展预警协同控制工作。     

Was Contamination of Southern California Groundwater By Chlorinated Solvents Foreseen?

The historical record does not support the argument that the cause of widespread groundwater contamination by chlorinated solvents in southern California was an inability to anticipate or detect the problem. The propensity of industrial wastes, including chlorinated solvents, to contaminate groundwater was understood by the 1940s in southern California. This understanding was not limited to a small group of specialists, but extended to regulators, industry, and the interested public. Industrial waste disposal was deregulated in 1949 as a result of lobbying by industry, despite a warning from the director of the State Health Department that such action would create "a backlog of water pollution over the State that will constitute a plague comparable to the air pollution in Los Angeles". Regulators warned specifically about the danger that groundwater pollution in the San Fernando and San Gabriel valleys would result from improper disposals of industrial chemicals, and solvents were identified as major contaminants in the scientific literature. Analytical methods to detect chlorinated solvents in groundwater at the concentrations found near the DNAPL (dense non-aqueous phase liquids) source zones have been well known since at least 1950, and a method with a detection limit of 10 w g/L was published as early as 1953.     

Estimating contribution of wildland fires to ambient ozone levels in National Parks in the Sierra Nevada, California

Data from four continuous ozone and weather monitoring sites operated by the National Park Service in Sierra Nevada, California, are used to develop an ozone forecasting model and to estimate the contribution of wildland fires on ambient ozone levels. The analyses of weather and ozone data pointed to the transport of ozone precursors from the Central Valley as an important source of pollution in these National Parks. Comparisons of forecasted and observed values demonstrated that accurate forecasts of next-day hourly ozone levels may be achieved by using a time series model with historic averages, expected local weather and modeled PM values as explanatory variables. Results on fire smoke influence indicated occurrence of significant increases in average ozone levels with increasing fire activity. The overall effect on diurnal ozone values, however, was small when compared with the amount of variability attributed to sources other than fire.     

The Sensitivity of California Water Resources to Climate Change Scenarios1

Abstract: Using the latest available General Circulation Model (GCM) results we present an assessment of climate change impacts on California hydrology and water resources. The approach considers the output of two GCMs, the PCM and the HadCM3, run under two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios: the high emission A1fi and the low emission B1. The GCM output was statistically downscaled and used in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale distributed hydrologic model to derive inflows to major reservoirs in the California Central Valley. Historical inflows used as inputs to the water resources model CalSim II were modified to represent the climate change perturbed conditions for water supply deliveries, reliability, reservoir storage and changes to variables of environmental concern. Our results show greater negative impacts to California hydrology and water resources than previous assessments of climate change impacts in the region. These impacts, which translate into smaller streamflows, lower reservoir storage and decreased water supply deliveries and reliability, will be especially pronounced later in the 21st Century and south of the San Francisco bay Delta. The importance of considering how climate change impacts vary for different temporal, spatial, and institutional conditions in addition to the average impacts is also demonstrated.     

A binational, supply-side evaluation for managing water quality and invasive fouling species on California's coastal boats

Integrated solutions are needed for sustainable management of risks posed by recreational boats to coastal water quality and ecosystems. Fouling organisms roughen vessel hull surfaces, creating friction that slows sailboats and increases fuel consumption by powerboats. Hull fouling control strategies for recreational boats that are stored in the water may include antifouling hull paints, newer alternative hull coatings, periodic in-water hull cleaning, and excluding propagules by surrounding the boat with a slip liner or raising it above water on a lift. Copper discharged to harbor waters from antifouling paints via passive leaching and in-water hull cleaning may elevate dissolved copper levels above government standards. Invasive species carried among boat-hull fouling organisms may be introduced as boats move among coastal areas. Some of these species tolerate copper in antifouling paints and copper-polluted harbor waters. Policy development must consider supply-side capacity, as well as economic and environmental sustainability, in managing these issues. This paper presents a supply-side evaluation useful in developing policies to co-manage water quality and invasive species risks for recreational boats navigating along the coasts of California, the Baja California peninsula and California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Supply-side perspectives on services, materials, costs, and boat owner behaviors, such as residence and travel patterns, awareness of hull-coating choices and selection of hull coatings, are determined. Analyses include evaluation of risks, risk management capacity and costs, and role of education in risk management. The issues raised are broadly applicable, as they are appearing on research and policy agendas in diverse coastal areas.     

A simple plankton model for the Oregon upwelling ecosystem: Sensitivity and validation against time-series ocean data

Simple plankton models serve as useful platforms for testing our understanding of the mechanisms underlying ecosystem dynamics. A simple, one-dimensional plankton model was developed to describe the dynamics of nitrate, ammonium, two phytoplankton size-classes, meso-zooplankton, and detritus in the Oregon upwelling ecosystem. Computational simplicity was maintained by linking the biological model to a one-dimensional, cross-shelf physical model driven by the daily coastal upwelling index. The model sacrificed resolution of regional-scale and along-shore (north to south) processes and assumed that seasonal productivity is primarily driven by local cross-shelf Ekman transport of surface waters and upwelling of nutrient-rich water from depth.Our goals were to see how well a simple plankton model could capture the general temporal and spatial dynamics of the system, test system sensitivity to alternate parameter set values, and observe system response to the effective scale of potential retention mechanisms. Model performance across the central Oregon shelf was evaluated against two years (2000-2001) of chlorophyll and copepod time-series observations. While the modeled meso-zooplankton biomass was close in scale to the observed copepod biomass, phytoplankton was overestimated relative to that inferred from the observed surface chlorophyll concentration. Inshore, the system was most sensitive to the nutrient uptake kinetics of diatom-size phytoplankton and to the functional grazing response of meso-zooplankton. Meso-zooplankton was more sensitive to alternate parameter values than was phytoplankton. Reduction of meso-zooplankton cross-shelf advection rates (crudely representing behavioral retention mechanisms) reduced the scale of model error relative to the observed seasonal mean inshore copepod biomass but had little effect of the modeled meso-zooplankton biomass offshore nor upon phytoplankton biomass across the entire shelf.     

Sexual dimorphism in sea lion pups: differential maternal investment,or sex-specific differences in energy allocation?

Proximal mechanisms underlying a faster growth rate in male compared to female California sea lion pups were investigated. Males are significantly larger at birth than females. Specifically, we asked if differential maternal investment contributed to enhanced male growth via: (1) larger mothers having disproportionately more male pups, (2) more time and energy put into foraging by mothers of male pups, and (3) greater milk production in mothers of male pups. We also considered four aspects of differential energy utilization and acquisition by male and female pups: (1) male pups attempting to save energy for growth by changes in behavior, (2) longer suckling bouts with mother and more sneak suckling of non-filial females by male pups, (3) lower maintenance costs in males via a lowered resting metabolic rate, and (4) increased assimilation efficiency in males. Our study showed that there are no differences in the size of females or length of foraging trips for mothers of male and female pups. Male pups received more milk from their mothers, but the difference was no longer significant when the larger body size of males was considered. There were no differences in either the activity budgets or suckling behavior of male and female pups. Male pups, however, did have lower resting metabolic rates than females. We conclude that enhanced male perinatal growth is a consequence of a larger size at birth, proportionally more milk from mothers to support the greater demands of larger body size, and lower maintenance costs due to a lower resting metabolic rate. Received: 28 April 1995/Accepted after revision: 25 July 1995     

Challenges to Introducing and Managing Disturbance Regimes for Holocarpha macradenia, an Endangered Annual Grassland Forb

Abstract:  Introducing rare plants to new sites for conservation to offset effects of habitat destruction requires detailed knowledge of habitat requirements, plant demography, and management needs. We conducted a factorial experiment replicated at three coastal prairie sites to test the effects of clipping frequency and litter accumulation on seed germination, seedling survival, reproduction, and seedling recruitment of introduced populations of the endangered, tall-stature, annual forb, Holocarpha macradenia (DC.) E. Greene. Clipping favored H. macradenia , primarily by enhancing seed germination and flower production. Litter accumulation had no effect on seed germination, even after 5 years of treatments. Seedling recruitment was highly site specific with large numbers of recruits recorded at only one of three sites. Although recruitment of seedlings was higher in clipped plots for 2–3 years, by 4–5 years after introduction very few seedlings survived to reproduction in any treatment. We attribute this result to a combination of poor habitat quality, small population size, and lack of a seed bank. We were unsuccessful in introducing this relatively well-studied species of concern to apparently suitable habitat at multiple sites in multiple years, which suggests that translocating rare plant populations to mitigate for habitat destruction is an expensive and highly uncertain endeavor.     

Methodological convergence as an issue within environmental cognition research

Two perspectives in the analysis of pointing and mapping tasks as the measure of representations of the large-scale environment are examined. These two perspectives are: (1) an individual difference approach; and (2) a cognitive representational approach. Convergence between methods assessing the same geographical/spatial knowledge is necessary as evidence for the existence of unified cognitive-spatial representations of the environment.Three sets of analyses interrelate performance on pointing and mapping tasks. In the first analysis, a confirmatory factor analytic model is applied to short tests of pointing and mapping accuracy to determine whether one or two factors are needed to account for covariation between the tests. In the second analysis, covariation among errors in pointing and mapping of specific locations is partitioned into general and specific method factors using the Schmid-Leiman procedure. In the third analysis, pointing errors for identical locations within the mapping and pointing tasks are directly compared on the basis of directional errors.The three analyses indicate that: (1) tests of pointing and mapping measure highly related abilities; (2) the targets used in pointing and mapping tasks are of differential importance in identifying general and specific method factors; and (3) there is little or no direct correspondence between directional errors made in pointing tasks and those occurring in mapping tasks for the same locations.When results of the three analyses are examined in relationship to criteria for convergence of pointing and mapping tasks, little evidence is found to suggest that directional errors in these tasks arise from a unified mental representation of the geographical environment. However, substantial predictable individual differences are apparent for both tasks.     

Environmental fate and ecotoxicology of paraquat: a California perspective

The herbicide paraquat belongs to the group of the bipyridylium salts. In California, it is used primarily for control of broad-leaved grasses in fruit orchards and plantations, as a cotton defoliant, and for inter-row control in many crop and non-crop areas. In plants, paraquat causes the formation of reactive radicals leading to cell membrane damage and ultimately rapid desiccation. Soil clay minerals have a greater influence on paraquat adsorption and inactivation compared with soil organic matter following an application. Degradation mechanisms include photolysis, chemical, and microbial degradation, but these processes are generally extremely slow. In California during 2000–2014, paraquat was used primarily for the cultivation of almonds, cotton, alfalfa, and grapes: median value for an application and annual mass applied statewide were 0.53 kg ion/ha and 280 Mg, respectively. Paraquat was undetected in groundwater as a non-point source pollutant. Detections in surface waters (0.42–3.6 μg/L) were <1%. In earthworms and other invertebrates there is limited paraquat accumulation as toxic effects are mitigated via soil inactivation. Paraquat is among the most embryotoxic contaminants for bird eggs, but not to adult; it causes toxic and teratogenic effects in amphibians, and toxic effects in honeybees, fish, and other aquatic species.