Cattle Grazing Mediates Climate Change Impacts on Ephemeral Wetlands

Abstract:  Climate change impacts depend in large part on land-management decisions; interactions between global changes and local resource management, however, rarely have been quantified. We used a combination of experimental manipulations and simulation modeling to investigate the effects of interactions between cattle grazing and regional climate change on vernal pool communities. Data from a grazing exclosure study indicated that 3 years after the removal of grazing, ungrazed vernal pools dried an average of 50 days per year earlier than grazed control pools. Modeling showed that regional climate change could also alter vernal pool hydrology. Increased temperatures and winter precipitation were predicted to increase periods of inundation. We evaluated the ecological implications of interactions between grazing and climate change for branchiopods and the California tiger salamander (  Ambystoma californiense ) at four sites spanning a latitudinal climate gradient. Grazing played an important role in maintaining the suitability of vernal pool hydrological conditions for fairy shrimp and salamander reproduction. The ecological importance of the interaction varied nonlinearly across the region. Our results show that grazing can confound hydrologic changes driven by climate change and play a critical role in maintaining the hydrologic suitability of vernal pools for endangered aquatic invertebrates and amphibians. These observations suggest an important limitation of impact assessments of climate change based on experiments in unmanaged ecosystems. The biophysical impacts of land management may be critical for understanding the vulnerability of ecological systems to climate change.     

Forecasts of habitat loss and fragmentation due to urban growth are sensitive to source of input data

The conversion of natural habitat to urban settlements is a primary driver of biodiversity loss, and species' persistence is threatened by the extent, location, and spatial pattern of development. Urban growth models are widely used to anticipate future development and to inform conservation management, but the source of spatial input to these models may contribute to uncertainty in their predictions. We compared two sources of historic urban maps, used as input for model calibration, to determine how differences in definition and scale of urban extent affect the resulting spatial predictions from a widely used urban growth model for San Diego County, CA under three conservation scenarios. The results showed that rate, extent, and spatial pattern of predicted urban development, and associated habitat loss, may vary substantially depending on the source of input data, regardless of how much land is excluded from development. Although the datasets we compared both represented urban land, different types of land use/land cover included in the definition of urban land and different minimum mapping units contributed to the discrepancies. Varying temporal resolution of the input datasets also contributed to differences in projected rates of development. Differential predicted impacts to vegetation types illustrate how the choice of spatial input data may lead to different conclusions relative to conservation. Although the study cannot reveal whether one dataset is better than another, modelers should carefully consider that geographical reality can be represented differently, and should carefully choose the definition and scale of their data to fit their research objectives.     

Earthquake drills and simulations in community-based training and preparedness programmes

The San Francisco, California, bay area is subject to continuous seismic risk. One particular response has been the development of community-based training programmes designed to teach residents basic emergency response skills. Citizens are taught emergency medical techniques, search and rescue, fire suppression and other fundamental response skills. Current estimates in the Bay Area place the number of programmes at more than 100. Many programmes now include an annual community drill to reinforce the training and to evaluate the programme. The study described here is based on an evaluation of an effort initiated by BayNET (Bay Area Neighborhood Emergency Training), a voluntary association of communities with community-based disaster preparedness programmes. In April 1996, BayNET asked all of its members to hold a community earthquake drill. After the drill, a mail survey was conducted of all programme managers. The survey examined the structure and administration of the programmes, training efforts and other related components. This paper describes the typology of drill formats that communities used, the role of the simulation in the city's preparedness efforts, the qualitative costs and benefits, as well as an assessment of the drill based on survey respondents.     

Microbiological Monitoring of Marine Recreational Waters in Southern California

An inventory was conducted to assess the number, type, spatial distribution, and costs of microbiological monitoring programs in southern California marine waters from Point Conception to the US/Mexico International Border. The location of each sampling site was determined using global positioning system (GPS), and estimates of geographic coverage were determined using geographic information system (GIS) techniques. Twenty-one programs conducted 87,007 tests annually at 576 sites in the study area. The largest number of sites was sampled in Orange County, whereas the largest number of analyses was performed in Los Angeles County because monitoring programs in this area focused on daily monitoring. Fifteen of the 21 programs were managed by National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permitted sewage effluent dischargers who sampled both offshore and shoreline waters and typically tested for three indicator bacteria (total coliform, fecal coliform, and enterococcus). Their combined efforts comprised 82% of all of the microbiological indicator analyses conducted on an annual basis. Five of the remaining monitoring organizations were public health agencies, which typically focus their efforts on testing only total coliforms. Laboratory methodology also varied considerably, with NPDES permittees predominantly utilizing membrane filtration while public health agencies generally used multiple tube fermentation or premanufactured test kits. Nearly three quarters of all the effort expended in southern California occurred along the shoreline as opposed to offshore locations. Two thirds of this shoreline effort was focused on high-use sandy beaches and in proximity to perennial freshwater outlets (storm drains and creeks). Most sampling occurred at a set of fixed sites that were revisited frequently, but only represented about 7% of the total shoreline. We estimated that roughly $3 million is spent annually on monitoring bathing water quality in southern California, exceeding that spent in any other part of the country.     

VENTURA RIVER FLOOD OF FEBRUARY 1992: A LESSON IGNORED?1

ABSTRACT: On February 12, 1992, a portion of the Ventura River, California, flowed through the Ventura Beach RV Resort which had recently been constructed across a major historically active distributary of the Ventura River delta. State and local land-use planners recognized the flood hazards associated with the site, but decision-makers relied on analytical methods developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and flood-hazard categories developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which did not adequately reflect the mobile nature of the Ventura River channel and distributaries. A better understanding of the historical behavior of the Ventura River could have averted the flood damages experienced in 1992. Low intensity recreational, agricultural, or habitat restoration use of the site would minimize potential flood damages and obviate the need for structural flood protection that would impact the river's natural resources. Continued operation of the recreational vehicle park could result in additional flood damages in the relatively near future; recognizing the limitations of the flood-modeling methodologies used for the Ventura Beach RV Resort could prevent similar miscalculations of flood potential in comparable situations.     

PHYSICOCHEMICAL FACTORS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON ALGAL GROWTH IN A NEW SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA RESERVOIR1

ABSTRACT: Some physical and chemical characteristics of Lake Perris, a new southern California reservoir, were investigated with regard to their influence on phytoplankton biomass and community structure. The concentration of three major nutrients – nitrogen, phosphorus, and iron – was approximately equivalent to the demand ratio of fresh water plants. Large increases in iron and phosphorus concentrations in late summer due to releases from sediments, however, tended to shift the balance toward a nitrogen-limited situation. Nitrogen limitation favored nitrogen-fixing blue-green algae, and after a decline of competing algae during the summer, the blue-green population bloomed in September. Series of measurements taken over one-day periods during summer stratification showed that some iron, phosphorus, and manganese from the hypolimnion could move upward, corresponding to diel shifts in the thermocline depth. Vertical transport of nutrients could thus occur long before complete lake mixing and could support summer/fall algal blooms.     

Losses from the Northridge earthquake: disruption to high-technology industries in the Los Angeles Basin

This study explores the relationship between industrial location geography, metropolitan patterns and earthquake disasters. Production losses from the 1994 Northridge earthquake to the Los Angeles Basin's most important high-technology industrial sector are evaluated in the context of that area's polycentric metropolitan form. Locations for each one of the Los Angeles Basin's 1,126 advanced electronics manufacturing establishments were identified and mapped, providing an indication of the patterns and clusters of the industry. An extensive survey of those establishments gathered information on disruptions from the Northridge earthquake. Production losses were then estimated, based on the sampled plants' lost workdays and the earthquake's distance-decay effects. A conservative estimate of total production losses to establishments in seven four-digit SIC advanced electronics industrial groups placed their value at US$220.4 million. Based on this estimate of losses, it is concluded that the Northridge earthquake's economic losses were much higher than initially anticipated.     

Fuzzy assessment of land suitability for scientific research reserves

Evaluating the characteristics of a set of sites as potential scientific research reserves is an example of land suitability assessment. Suitability in this case is based upon multiple criteria, many of which can be linguistically imprecise and often incompatible. Fuzzy logic is a useful method for characterizing imprecise suitability criteria and for combining criteria into an overall suitability rating. The Ecosystem Management Decision Support software combined a fuzzy logic knowledge base we developed to represent the assessment problem with a GIS database providing site-specific data for the assessment. Assessment of sites as a potential natural reserve for the new University of California campus at Merced demonstrates the benefits of fuzzy suitability assessment. The study was conducted in three stages of successively smaller assessment regions with increasingly fine spatial resolution and specificity of criteria. Several sites were identified that best satisfy the suitability criteria for a reserve to represent vernal pool habitat.     

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CALIFORNIA HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Previous reports based on climate change scenarios have suggested that California will be subjected to increased wintertime and decreased summertime streamflow. Due to the uncertainty of projections in future climate, a new range of potential climatological future temperature shifts and precipitation ratios is applied to the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model and Anderson Snow Model in order to determine hydrologic sensitivities. Two general circulation models (GCMs) were used in this analysis: one that is warm and wet (HadCM2 run 1) and one that is cool and dry (PCM run B06.06), relative to the GCM projections for California that were part of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A set of specified incremental temperature shifts from 1.5°C to 5.0°C and precipitation ratios from 0.70 to 1.30 were also used as input to the snow and soil moisture accounting models, providing for additional scenarios (e.g., warm/dry, cool/wet). Hydrologic calculations were performed for a set of California river basins that extend from the coastal mountains and Sierra Nevada northern region to the southern Sierra Nevada region; these were applied to a water allocation analysis in a companion paper. Results indicate that for all snow‐producing cases, a larger proportion of the streamflow volume will occur earlier in the year. The amount and timing is dependent on the characteristics of each basin, particularly the elevation. Increased temperatures lead to a higher freezing line, therefore less snow accumulation and increased melting below the freezing height. The hydrologic response varies for each scenario, and the resulting solution set provides bounds to the range of possible change in streamflow, snowmelt, snow water equivalent, and the change in the magnitude of annual high flows. An important result that appears for all snowmelt driven runoff basins, is that late winter snow accumulation decreases by 50 percent toward the end of this century.     

IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGIES FOR AGRICULTURAL AND SILVICULTURAL NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION CONTROL IN CALIFORNIA AND WISCONSIN1

ABSTRACT: In the absence of detailed outlines such as those characteristic of the National Pollution Discharge Elimination System permit program, Nonpoint source pollution control is being initiated in a variety of ways in different states. In California, Regional Water Quality Control Boards play a strong enforcement role in point source control, but agricultural Nonpoint source needs are still being evaluated. Tentative approval of State Board of Forestry Forest Practice Rules by the State Water Resources Control Board has the potential of bringing Nonpoint control to all State and private forestry operations in the state. Wisconsin had developed an agricultural Nonpoint control program which emphasizes a state-wide policy of selecting priority watersheds under the administration of the state Department of Natural Resources, and developing implementation programs under the guidance of local county Land Conservation Committees. The Priority Watershed program institutes BMP's with cost-share funds authorized by the legislature. Wisconsin had not seen a problem in silvicultural activities, and has developed no statewide control program in that area. Common to effective land use control in both states is a state-level policy implemented by agencies within the state. This pattern may be the model for successful programs as development of areawide management strategies continue.