Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects

Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C) emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State, Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico. A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines. In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable) in explaining empirical land-use patterns. We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond 10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed. This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection.     

碳中和——中国发展转型的机遇与挑战

碳中和是《巴黎协定》提出的到21世纪末在全球范围内实现人为活动排放的温室气体排放总量与大自然吸收总量相平衡,这是《联合国气候变化框架公约》应对气候变化问题的终极目标。本文从碳中和的目的、本质和进展分析入手,提出了在实现碳中和问题上中国的机遇与挑战。     

A participatory approach to the establishment of a baseline scenario for a reforestation Clean Development Mechanism project

This paper is part of a two-year study to investigate the feasibility of initiating a Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project in an indigenous community of Eastern Panamá, Ipetí-Emberá. We use participatory mapping and matrices as well as household surveys to develop a land-use/land-cover baseline scenario and examine the role of local participation in assessing land-use change. In Ipetí, land-use change has not occurred in a linear way over the last decades, and our data unveils socio-economic factors as potential key drivers of change. The concordance that we observed between geographic information and individual and collective perceptions of land-use change substantiates the possibility of using local knowledge in the establishment of baseline data for CDM projects. Our calculations suggest that the total carbon (C) stocks in the Tierra Colectiva (TC) of Ipetí-Emberá in 2004 represents a 47% reduction from the estimated C stock at the onset of settlement in the early 1970’s. Results from the participatory assessments predict that, in 2024 and in absence of a CDM project, the C stocks will decline from 301,859 t C in 2004 to 155,730 t C, which constitutes a reduction of 52%. The scenario with CDM estimates C stocks of 305,853 t C for 2024, a value slightly superior to the 2004 value. In the TC there is ground to believe that cattle ranching is likely to become an ever more important activity as the population is young and growing and cannot easily move elsewhere. Forests tend to be cleared for cultivation while pastures are established on short fallows. Our baseline scenario underlines the potential for a CDM project to make a significant difference in the future C stocks of this landscape.     

Direct supercritical fluid extraction from water

Abstract

This paper describes the development of apparatus suitable for direct supercritical fluid extraction of organics from water. Results are presented for the extraction of pentachlorophenol present in water at concentrations of the order of 0.1 ppm. The effect of changes in apparatus design and supercritical fluid flow rate on recovery are discussed.     

Which “fairness”, for whom,and why? An empirical analysis of plural notions of fairness in Fairtrade Carbon Projects,using Q methodology

Fairness is a relative concept with multiple, subjective and competing notions of what it is, how to achieve it, and for which beneficiaries. Fairtrade International's collaborative efforts to develop a standard to certify Fairtrade Carbon Credits (FCCs) brought together multiple stakeholders in a deliberative context. This paper uses Q methodology to empirically assess the notions of fairness this wider consultation group held. Three distinct ‘factors’ (or perspectives) are identified, and discussed in relation to a multi-dimensional framework for exploring fairness. The first factor prioritises development delivered through organisations, participation in decision-making and use of minimum prices to adjust trade imbalances. The second factor conceptualises a non-exclusive approach maximising generation and sales of FCCs, involving a commodity chain where everyone performs their optimum function with financial transparency and information-sharing to facilitate negotiations. The third factor involves minimising intervention, allowing carbon commodity chains and project set-ups to function efficiently, and make their own adjustments to enhance benefits access and quality received by beneficiaries. The three factors reflect debates within carbon and fair trade spheres about who should be playing which roles, who should be accessing which benefits, and how people should be supported to interact on an uneven playing field. Communicating findings to standards organisations enables a more open and inclusive policy process. Our research provides a critical reflection on these plural notions of fairness, identifying areas of (dis)agreement within the FCC dialogue, and provides a wider, yet manageable, set of inputs for supporting the FCC process during its inception and subsequent implementation. Clearer definitions of “fairness” are also useful for standards organisations in reviewing ex post whether “fairness” goals have been met.     

Indigenous benefits and carbon offset schemes: An Australian case study

The nexus between human rights and the environment is a key issue for climate policymakers and Indigenous peoples around the world. We combine national spatial, social and biological datasets from Australia to describe where Indigenous carbon projects are happening, why Indigenous people are participating, and how effective these schemes might be at marrying Indigenous co-benefit, biodiversity and carbon emission mitigation goals. Our study shows that many Indigenous people engage in carbon offset schemes as part of their broader cultural responsibility for landscapes, and that they seek to grow the relationship between social and ecological benefits. It also highlights the challenges associated with designing carbon offset schemes that address the impacts of climate change and respond to Indigenous peoples’ world views about what is required to sustain cultural-social-ecological systems.     

Elevated CO2 facilitates C and N accumulation in a rice paddy ecosystem

Elevated CO2 can stimulate wetland carbon(C) and nitrogen(N) exports through gaseous and dissolved pathways, however, the consequent influences on the C and N pools are still not fully known. Therefore, we set up a free-air CO2 enrichment experiment in a paddy field in Eastern China. After five year fumigation, we studied C and N in the plant–water–soil system. The results showed:(1) elevated CO2 stimulated rice aboveground biomass and N accumulations by 19.1% and 12.5%, respectively.(2) Elevated CO2 significantly increased paddy soil TOC and TN contents by 12.5% and 15.5%, respectively in the 0–15 cm layer, and22.7% and 26.0% in the 15–30 cm soil layer.(3) Averaged across the rice growing period,elevated CO2 greatly increased TOC and TN contents in the surface water by 7.6% and 11.4%,respectively.(4) The TOC/TN ratio and natural δ15N value in the surface soil showed a decreasing trend under elevated CO2. The above results indicate that elevated CO2 can benefit C and N accumulation in paddy fields. Given the similarity between the paddies and natural wetlands, our results also suggest a great potential for long-term C and N accumulation in natural wetlands under future climate patterns.     

Enhanced U(VI) bioreduction by alginate-immobilized uranium-reducing bacteria in the presence of carbon nanotubes and anthraquinone-2,6-disulfonate

Uranium-reducing bacteria were immobilized with sodium alginate, anthraquinone-2, 6-disulfonate (AQDS), and carbon nanotubes (CNTs). The effects of different AQDS-CNTs contents, U(IV) concentrations, and metal ions on U(IV) reduction by immobilized beads were examined. Over 97.5% U(VI) (20 mg/L) was removed in 8 hr when the beads were added to 0.7% AQDS-CNTs, which was higher than that without AQDS-CNTs. This result may be attributed to the enhanced electron transfer by AQDS and CNTs. The reduction of U(VI) occurred at initial U(VI) concentrations of 10 to 100 mg/L and increased with increasing AQDS-CNT content from 0.1% to 1%. The presence of Fe(III), Cu(II) and Mn(II) slightly increased U(VI) reduction, whereas Cr(VI), Ni(II), Pb(II), and Zn(II) significantly inhibited U(VI) reduction. After eight successive incubation-washing cycles or 8 hr of retention time (HRT) for 48 hr of continuous operation, the removal efficiency of uranium was above 90% and 92%, respectively. The results indicate that the AQDS-CNT/AL/cell beads are suitable for the treatment of uranium-containing wastewaters.     

Mesoporous carbon adsorbents from melamine-formaldehyde resin using nanocasting technique for CO2 adsorption

Mesoporous carbon adsorbents, having high nitrogen content, were synthesized via nanocasting technique with melamine–formaldehyde resin as precursor and mesoporous silica as template. A series of adsorbents were prepared by varying the carbonization temperature from 400 to 700°C. Adsorbents were characterized thoroughly by nitrogen sorption, X-ray diffraction(XRD), scanning electron microscopy(SEM), transmission electron microscopy(TEM), thermogravimetric analysis(TGA), elemental(CHN) analysis, Fourier transform infrared(FTIR) spectroscopy and Boehm titration. Carbonization temperature controlled the properties of the synthesized adsorbents ranging from surface area to their nitrogen content, which play major role in their application as adsorbents for CO_2 capture.The nanostructure of these materials was confirmed by XRD and TEM. Their nitrogen content decreased with an increase in carbonization temperature while other properties like surface area, pore volume, thermal stability and surface basicity increased with the carbonization temperature. These materials were evaluated for CO_2 adsorption by fixed-bed column adsorption experiments. Adsorbent synthesized at 700°C was found to have the highest surface area and surface basicity along with maximum CO_2 adsorption capacity among the synthesized adsorbents. Breakthrough time and CO_2 equilibrium adsorption capacity were investigated from the breakthrough curves and were found to decrease with increase in adsorption temperature. Adsorption process for carbon adsorbent–CO_2 system was found to be reversible with stable adsorption capacity over four consecutive adsorption–desorption cycles. From three isotherm models used to analyze the equilibrium data, Temkin isotherm model presented a nearly perfect fit implying the heterogeneous adsorbent surface.