抗水树交联电缆运行安全性研究

为降低水树在中、高压电缆运行过程中的生长速度,将乙烯丙烯酸(EAA)共聚物、二亚苄基山梨糖醇(DBS)助剂加入交联聚乙烯(XLPE)基料中合成新型电缆绝缘料配方。在160℃进行混合、压片使之完成交联反应后,采用水树培养、电加速电老化试验研究添加剂含量对水树枝长度的影响。试验结果表明,在200倍偏光显微镜下可明显观察到改性后的电缆绝缘料中水树枝长度在一定范围内随着EAA及DBS含量的增加而减小,EAA及DBS在绝缘料中最佳的混合份数分别为1.5份和0.6份,抗水树交联电缆运行安全得到有效提高。     

滑索运动特性及关键部件受力分析

本文主要研究不同无荷拉力对滑索的运行速度以及承载索拉力变化的影响。首先建立承载索数学模型,获得承载索的静力线型;然后导入动力学分析软件ADAMS进行运动仿真分析,获得运行速度曲线,得到无荷拉力与进站速度之间的关系;最后提取滑具运行过程中对承载索施加的动载荷数据带入线型模型进行有限元分析,得到承载索的拉力变化规律,在此基础上对承载索进行了强度分析以及对滑具轮轴进行了疲劳分析,为滑索安全性设计提供可靠的理论支持。     

Sustainable rangeland management using a multi-fuzzy model: how to deal with heterogeneous experts' knowledge

While fuzzy specialists commonly use homogeneous experts' knowledge to construct fuzzy models, it is much more difficult to deal with knowledge elicited from a heterogeneous group of experts. This issue is exemplified in the area of sustainable rangeland management (SRM). One way to deal with the diversity of opinions is to develop a fuzzy system for all experts and to combine all these, the so-called primary systems, into one multi-fuzzy model. To derive each of the primary fuzzy systems, several semi-structured interviews were held in three different areas of the Fars province in Southwest Iran using the knowledge of a group of administrative experts. To obtain the final output of the multi-fuzzy model, we applied different 'voting' methods. The first method simply uses the arithmetic average of the primary outputs as the final output of the multi-fuzzy model. This final output represents an estimation of the right rate of stocking (RRS). We also propose other (un)supervised voting methods. Most importantly, by harmonising the primary outputs such that outliers get less emphasis, we introduce an unsupervised voting method for calculating a weighted estimate of the RRS. This harmonising method is expected to provide a new useful tool for policymakers dealing with heterogenity in experts' opinions: it is especially useful where limited field data are available and one is forced to rely on experts' knowledge only. By constructing the three fuzzy models based on the elicitation of heterogeneous experts' knowledge, our study shows the multidimensional vaguenesses that exist in SRM. Finally, by comparing the final RRS with its common values, this study strongly points to the existence of overgrazing in pastures in the three regions of the Fars province in Southwest Iran.     

预应力锚索和微型桩联合处理深基坑失稳事故

土钉支护具有经济快捷等优点,但土钉支护单独使用也有其局限性。通过对某土钉支护深基坑在施工过程中发生支护失稳出现险情的原因进行分析,及时地设计预应力锚索和微型桩予以联合加固,有效地控制了该基坑的变形,保证了地下室施工的安全。     

Modelling llama population development under environmental and market constraints in the Bolivian highlands

Changes in the size of animal populations over time are mainly determined by demographic and environmental factors. Livestock population dynamics are additionally influenced by harvesting decisions taken by herders. In Bolivia, not much is known about current llama husbandry and the main influencing factors determining population sizes. We collected data on demography, environmental factors and market values affecting the current and future llama population in three different regions in Bolivia. We generated a population model and assessed the future development of the llama population including environmental factors (rangeland carrying capacity, disturbance phenomena), herd structure and dynamics, and economic market demands. We calibrated and validated the llama model on the basis of 20-year data sets of the regions of Oruro, Potosi and La Paz, respectively. Model calibration by means of the Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg algorithm yielded a model efficiency of 0.94. For model validation, however, the simulation slightly overestimated the observed llama population yielding model efficiencies of 0.91 and 0.87 for Potosi and La Paz, respectively. Model outcomes were most sensitive to death and birth rates of juveniles and death rate of females compared to environmental or other demographic factors. Population trajectories approached an overall carrying capacity for Oruro, Potosi and La Paz of 8.8 × 10⁵, 9.1 × 10⁵, and 9.0 × 10⁵ llama individuals after 100 years of simulation. Hence, detailed monitoring of demographic, environmental, and economic factors can improve predictions of llama population development over time. Further management should focus on improving birth rates and lowering female mortality through providing supplemental food and shelters against the harsh environmental conditions of the Andean highlands.     

汶川大地震简支梁桥落梁震害与设计对策

总结了5· 12汶川大地震中简支梁桥落梁震害及主要影响因素,发现除地震山体滑坡等地质灾害外,断层地表破裂、近断层地震动效应、桥台胸墙冲切破坏、防落梁构造措施单一及桥梁体型复杂等因素都是引起简支梁桥落粱震害的重要原因.提出了简支梁桥防落梁设计的基本理念及相关技术方案要点为允许墩梁间发生滑移,以降低桥墩承受的地震惯性力,以...     

贫数据条件下海底电缆故障概率评估方法*

为解决贫数据引起海底电缆失效概率评估的不确定性影响,实施有效的海底电缆故障风险管理,提出1种耦合模糊集理论、层次贝叶斯分析（HBA）和贝叶斯网络的海底电缆失效概率评估方法,识别海底电缆失效致因因素,梳理各因素之间的关联关系,并采用贝叶斯网络(BN)构建海底电缆失效模型;根据数据源特点将电缆失效因素分为数据完全缺失和具有稀少的先兆数据,采用模糊集理论(FST)计算完全没有可用数据的失效致因发生概率,通过HBA估计有稀少数据失效致因的发生概率;以失效致因发生概率为输入,通过贝叶斯网络实现海底电缆失效概率的动态评估。研究结果表明:FST-HBA-BN方法可以解决基本风险因素的数据稀缺问题,量化评估海底电缆失效概率,研究结果可为贫数据条件下的电缆失效风险管理提供支撑。     

Implications for the carrying capacity of lithium reserve in China

China is a major supplier of rechargeable lithium batteries for the world's consumer electronics (CE) and electric vehicles (EV). Consequently, China's domestic lithium resources are being rapidly depleted, and the development of the CE and EV industries will be vulnerable to the carrying capacity of China's lithium reserves. Here we find that lithium demand in China will increase significantly due to the continuing growth of demand for CE and the briskly emerging market for EV, resulting in a short carrying duration of lithium, even with full recycling of end-of-life lithium products. With these applications increasing at an annual rate of 7%, the carrying duration of lithium reserves will oblige the end-of-life products recycling with a 90% rate. To sustain the lithium industry, one approach would be to develop the collection system and recycling technology of lithium-containing waste for closed-loop lithium recycling, and other future endeavors should include developing the low-lithium battery and optimizing lithium industrial structure.     

CESSNA172R飞机飞行操纵钢索故障原因分析

CESSNA172R飞机飞行操纵(副翼、升降舵、方向舵、襟翼)系统钢索多次发生磨损、断裂故障,严重威胁了飞行安全。根据该机型结构设计特点,通过相似机型系统类比、数据可靠性分析等方法分析了各飞行操纵系统钢索失效的主要原因,提出了预防飞行操纵钢索失效的措施。通过调整飞机的操纵钢索系统的维护周期,改进钢索的检查和维护技术,提高飞机在全寿命周期中的安全可靠性。     

核电站电缆桥架力学计算及工程应用

目的研究电缆桥架的受力规律。方法采用通用有限元程序ANSYS对电缆桥架进行整体建模与力学分析,探讨S2型支架、S4型支架以及梯形支架的抗震能力,研究不同方钢长度和不同托臂层数对支架抗震能力的影响,并探讨三种截面形式的托臂承载能力。结果梯形支架比其他两种支架抗震能力强。增加方钢长度和托臂层数会提高支架的受力,降低其抗震能力。双层异形钢截面的托臂更能有效地提高其承载能力。结论为以后核电站电缆桥架的自主设计和改进打下了基础。