水面舰船风浪环境适应性内涵及综合评估方法研究

首先对水面舰船风浪环境适应性的内涵进行了分析,重点研究了风浪环境对舰船综合航行性能及作战使用效能的影响.考虑到实际风浪环境中舰船各项总体性能指标是一个复杂的体系,各指标之间既具有矛盾性又具有一致性,是一个多目标、多变量的复杂系统.提取了跟风浪环境相关性较强的船体性能指标,建立了水面舰船风浪环境适应性多级综合评价指标体系...     

国家重点生态功能区县域环境监测质量评价方法及应用示范

以国家重点生态功能区县域环境监测质量评价为目标,综合应用德尔菲法、层次分析法和模糊综合评价法,构建了国家重点生态功能区县域环境监测质量评价方法,并确定了评价因子、权重系数、计算方法。该方法评价指标共分为三层:第一层为目标层,即国家重点生态功能区县域环境监测质量;第二层为准则层,包括人员及资质、现场监测、实验室管理、报告编制及数据上报;第三层为方案层,包括人员操作、持证上岗、资质认定、人员培训、水质布点采样流转情况、空气自动站运维情况、现场质控实施情况、实验室环境条件、样品试剂的保存与管理、仪器检定与校准、实验室质量控制实施情况、数据填报软件运行情况、监测报告规范性等13个评价要素。经矩阵一致性检验确定了各评价要素的权重,将该权重与各要素得分运算后得到县域环境监测质量评价结果。在此基础上,选取广东、山西、陕西、四川和青海等5个省份的15个国家重点生态功能区县域作为典型区开展了实地调研,并应用评价体系对其进行了监测质量等级评价。结果表明,15个典型县域中,环境监测质量等级为优的县域占13.3%,一般、较差的县域分别占66.7%、20%。县域环境监测承担单位在资质、报告编制及数据上报方面表现较好,在现场监测、人员操作方面问题突出,在实验室管理方面有待提升。     

Quantifying the squeezing or stretching of fisheries as they adapt to displacement by marine reserves

The designation of no‐take marine reserves involves social and economic concerns due to the resulting displacement of fishing effort, when fishing rights are removed from those who traditionally fished within an area. Displacement can influence the functioning of the fishery and success of the reserve, yet levels of displacement are seldom quantified after reserve implementation and very rarely before that. We devised a simple analytical framework based on set theory to facilitate reserve placement. Implementation of the framework requires maps of fishing grounds, fishing effort, or catch per unit effort for at least 2 years. The framework quantifies the level of conflict that a reserve designation might cause in the fishing sector due to displacement and the opportunities to offset the conflict through fisher spatial mobility (i.e., ability of fishers to fish elsewhere). We also considered how the outputs of the framework can be used to identify targeted management interventions for each fishery. We applied the method in Honduras, where the largest marine protected area in Central America is being placed, for which spatial data on fishing effort were available for 6 fisheries over 3 years. The proposed closure had a greater negative impact on the shrimp and lobster scuba fisheries, which concentrated respectively 28% and 18% of their effort inside the reserve. These fisheries could not accommodate the displacement within existing fishing grounds. Both would be forced to stretch into new fishing grounds, which are available but are of unknown quality. These stakeholders will likely require compensation to offset costly exploratory fishing or to travel to fishing grounds farther away from port.     

Developing Metapopulation Connectivity Criteria from Genetic and Habitat Data to Recover the Endangered Mexican Wolf

Restoring connectivity between fragmented populations is an important tool for alleviating genetic threats to endangered species. Yet recovery plans typically lack quantitative criteria for ensuring such population connectivity. We demonstrate how models that integrate habitat, genetic, and demographic data can be used to develop connectivity criteria for the endangered Mexican wolf (Canis lupus baileyi), which is currently being restored to the wild from a captive population descended from 7 founders. We used population viability analysis that incorporated pedigree data to evaluate the relation between connectivity and persistence for a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation of 3 populations of equal size. Decreasing dispersal rates greatly increased extinction risk for small populations (<150–200), especially as dispersal rates dropped below 0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation. We compared observed migration rates in the Northern Rocky Mountains (NRM) wolf metapopulation to 2 habitat‐based effective distance metrics, least‐cost and resistance distance. We then used effective distance between potential primary core populations in a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation to evaluate potential dispersal rates. Although potential connectivity was lower in the Mexican wolf versus the NRM wolf metapopulation, a connectivity rate of >0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation may be achievable via natural dispersal under current landscape conditions. When sufficient data are available, these methods allow planners to move beyond general aspirational connectivity goals or rules of thumb to develop objective and measurable connectivity criteria that more effectively support species recovery. The shift from simple connectivity rules of thumb to species‐specific analyses parallels the previous shift from general minimum‐viable‐population thresholds to detailed viability modeling in endangered species recovery planning. Desarrollo de Criterios de Conectividad Metapoblacional a Partir de Datos Genéticos y de Hábitat para Recuperar al Lobo Mexicano en Peligro de Extinción     

Defining and Evaluating the Umbrella Species Concept for Conserving and Restoring Landscape Connectivity

Conserving or restoring landscape connectivity between patches of breeding habitat is a common strategy to protect threatened species from habitat fragmentation. By managing connectivity for some species, usually charismatic vertebrates, it is often assumed that these species will serve as conservation umbrellas for other species. We tested this assumption by developing a quantitative method to measure overlap in dispersal habitat of 3 threatened species—a bird (the umbrella), a butterfly, and a frog—inhabiting the same fragmented landscape. Dispersal habitat was determined with Circuitscape, which was parameterized with movement data collected for each species. Despite differences in natural history and breeding habitat, we found substantial overlap in the spatial distributions of areas important for dispersal of this suite of taxa. However, the intuitive umbrella species (the bird) did not have the highest overlap with other species in terms of the areas that supported connectivity. Nevertheless, we contend that when there are no irreconcilable differences between the dispersal habitats of species that cohabitate on the landscape, managing for umbrella species can help conserve or restore connectivity simultaneously for multiple threatened species with different habitat requirements. Definición y Evaluación del Concepto de Especie Paraguas para Conservar y Restaurar la Conectividad de Paisajes     

Environmental cost of using poor decision metrics to prioritize environmental projects

Conservation decision makers commonly use project‐scoring metrics that are inconsistent with theory on optimal ranking of projects. As a result, there may often be a loss of environmental benefits. We estimated the magnitudes of these losses for various metrics that deviate from theory in ways that are common in practice. These metrics included cases where relevant variables were omitted from the benefits metric, project costs were omitted, and benefits were calculated using a faulty functional form. We estimated distributions of parameters from 129 environmental projects from Australia, New Zealand, and Italy for which detailed analyses had been completed previously. The cost of using poor prioritization metrics (in terms of lost environmental values) was often high—up to 80% in the scenarios we examined. The cost in percentage terms was greater when the budget was smaller. The most costly errors were omitting information about environmental values (up to 31% loss of environmental values), omitting project costs (up to 35% loss), omitting the effectiveness of management actions (up to 9% loss), and using a weighted‐additive decision metric for variables that should be multiplied (up to 23% loss). The latter 3 are errors that occur commonly in real‐world decision metrics, in combination often reducing potential benefits from conservation investments by 30–50%. Uncertainty about parameter values also reduced the benefits from investments in conservation projects but often not by as much as faulty prioritization metrics.     

Credibility and advocacy in conservation science

Conservation policy sits at the nexus of natural science and politics. On the one hand, conservation scientists strive to maintain scientific credibility by emphasizing that their research findings are the result of disinterested observations of reality. On the other hand, conservation scientists are committed to conservation even if they do not advocate a particular policy. The professional conservation literature offers guidance on negotiating the relationship between scientific objectivity and political advocacy without damaging conservation science's credibility. The value of this guidance, however, may be restricted by limited recognition of credibility's multidimensionality and emergent nature: it emerges through perceptions of expertise, goodwill, and trustworthiness. We used content analysis of the literature to determine how credibility is framed in conservation science as it relates to apparent contradictions between science and advocacy. Credibility typically was framed as a static entity lacking dimensionality. Authors identified expertise or trustworthiness as important, but rarely mentioned goodwill. They usually did not identify expertise, goodwill, or trustworthiness as dimensions of credibility or recognize interactions among these 3 dimensions of credibility. This oversimplification may limit the ability of conservation scientists to contribute to biodiversity conservation. Accounting for the emergent quality and multidimensionality of credibility should enable conservation scientists to advance biodiversity conservation more effectively.     

宜昌市沮漳河流域当阳段水环境现状调查与评价

对宜昌市沮漳河流域当阳段的水环境进行了调查和评价。通过区域自然环境、社会经济发展、水体功能区、水环境容量等分析以及多个断面数据的监测,表明沮漳河流域当阳段水环境质量不能满足Ⅲ类水体功能区要求,主要超标因子为高锰酸盐指数、NHrN、BOD5、TP、石油类,主要受沿岸工业废水、生活污水及农业面源污染所致。     

页岩气开发对生态环境影响评价模型

针对页岩气特殊的开发方式及环评难度比常规气大的特点,运用"压力-状态-响应"框架模型,建立了页岩气开发对生态环境影响的评价指标体系。引入曲线投影的方式,并将投影寻踪方法和动态聚类方法相结合,提出了曲线投影寻踪动态聚类的定量评价方法;基于样本各指标的曲线投影和动态聚类方法寻找最佳投影方向,并建立相应的生态环境影响评价优化模型。结合全局最优经验指导和信息素交流,采用改进的蚁群算法对优化模型进行求解。该算法维持蚁群的多样性,且收敛性较好,同时也避免出现局部最优。对四川省威远页岩气区块进行了实例分析,结果表明:2010年、2011年和2014年的环评属于差类(4级),2012年和2013年的环评属于中类(3级),其中植被覆盖率、空气质量优良率、地表水质达标率、废水排放量、公众对环境的满意度、二氧化硫排放量和废水排放量达标率等指标对生态环境评价的影响较大。在页岩气开发初期,由于开发技术落后,再加上环保投资不高,环保意识不强,造成生态环境问题较为严重。随着学习借鉴美国的经验,及页岩气的开发技术进一步提高,加上国家对生态环境保护的重视,威远页岩气区块生态环境恶化得到有效的遏制。但开发时间越长,开采难度越大,将会产生更多更大的生态环境问题。分析结果与威远页岩气开发区域的实际情况相符,为页岩气气田生态环境影响评价奠定了科学基础。投影寻踪动态聚类方法具有无需设定参数、操作简单、客观等优点,是页岩气开发对生态环境影响评价的一种新方法。     

国际气候变化科学和评估对中国应对气候变化的启示

科学研究和评估工作推动了国际应对气候变化进程,并加大了各国行动力度。更多的科学证据表明人类活动是造成全球气候变暖的主要原因;气候变化影响、适应和脆弱性研究范围不断扩展和深化,区域甚至次国家级层面的问题受到高度关注;2℃温控目标的实现已然成为共识,政策协调与集成及相关政策在不同领域的协同作用成为研究的热点。未来中国应对气候变化需要在四个方面进一步开展研究和采取行动:1加强不同学科和领域的研究工作,围绕与实现温升控制1.5℃、土地利用、海洋以及城市相关问题开展专题研究。2加强国内绿色低碳转型和国际谈判的战略研究。3构建气候服务体系,以灾害风险管理为抓手,提升气候变化适应水平。4通过构建能源互联网实现能源变革,加快推进国内能源革命和经济发展的低碳转型。