System dynamics research of non-adaptive evacuation psychology in toxic gas leakage emergencies of chemical park

Chemical industry park plays an important role in optimizing the allocation of resources, but an emergency may make a great deal of personnel casualty and property loss. Many casualties are not the result of accidents but are caused by extreme behavior because of the non-adaptive psychology of the evacuees. Panic is one of the non-adaptive psychological behaviors during an evacuation, which is influenced by a variety of factors. Based on the consideration of the disaster environment and the evolution of crowd emotion, a system dynamics model of panic spread is established by using Anylogic software, and simulation experiments are carried out for different disaster severity, visibility, and groups. The results show that the number of people with severe panic increase when visibility decreases or disaster diffuses. Besides, the appropriate proportion of groups can effectively reduce the cooling time of crowd and ease the fears. However, continue to increase the number of groups has no significant effect on the panic control. This work can provide some reasonable guidance for regional emergency evacuation in chemical park.     

Justice for Bhopal! And No More Bhopals! Three decades of national and international campaigning

Dissatisfaction with the responses of the responsible corporation, Union Carbide, and the Indian government to Bhopal resulted in a campaign by national and international NGOs (non-governmental organisations) over the past three decades. While initially the Indian and international campaigns were separate, over time greater international cooperation took place. In the immediate aftermath of the disaster local NGOs prioritised health, justice and rehabilitation issues, while international NGOs used Bhopal to question chemical industry process and environmental safety in their own countries, as well as internationally. Indian NGOs called on international NGO resources to gain legitimacy for their campaign, to use NGOs as proxies and to extend the geographical scope of the campaign, while international NGOs used Bhopal as an example to advance NGOs analyses and policies. Over the period of the campaign, Indian NGOs became more sophisticated in their campaigning. The international campaign has increasingly become an online campaign, involved in an image or reputational war with Dow Chemical, which took over Union Carbide, while the original campaign issues of justice and reparations over the process safety disaster were joined by similar issues related to environmental safety of abandoned toxic waste.     

Uncertainties in QRA: Analysis of losses of containment from piping and implications on risk prevention and mitigation

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) is commonly used in the chemical industry to support decision-making. Common practices are based on standard methods, such as fault tree, event tree, etc.; in this frame, risk is a function of frequency of events (probability) and associated consequences (negative outcomes), but relevant uncertainties often are not properly taken into account in the derived results. This paper presents the application of an extended risk analysis of loss of containments for a case-study with the following aims: firstly, the uncertainties related to the results of the analysis, which derive from assumption in the application of the standard models, are qualitatively assessed; secondly the application allows evaluating the impact of the uncertainties on the trustworthiness of the results and, finally, commenting about their use in the risk prevention and mitigation.     

Survey-based analysis of evacuation preparation behaviors in a chemical leakage accident: A case study

Public evacuation preparation exerts an important impact on overall evacuation efficiency during regional evacuations. Early warnings often delay the occurrence of chemical accidents. Studying the characteristics of public evacuation preparation in such accidents will help develop better evacuation strategies considering the actual public response. In this work, the characteristics and factors influencing public evacuation preparation behaviors were analyzed by examining an evacuation case in China. The results indicated that the probability distribution of public's evacuation preparation time during a regional evacuation conforms to a Weibull distribution regardless of whether or not evacuation warnings were received. An estimation model of the traffic flow loading rate in a regional evacuation was then proposed on the basis of this finding. The results of this research can provide a reliable reference for evacuation modeling or logistics optimization for future incidents.     

Heavy-metal fractionation and distribution in soil profiles short-term-irrigated with sewage wastewater

Six soil profiles irrigated and non-irrigated with sewage wastewater were investigated for soil pH, electrical conductivity (EC), organic matter (OM), and CaCO₃. The distributions and chemical fractions of Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb, and their lability were also studied. The results indicated that pH, EC, OM, and CaCO₃, as well as metal fractionation in soil profiles were affected by wastewater irrigation, especially in the surface layer. The surface layer (0-15 cm) irrigated with wastewater exhibited a 0.6 unit decrease in soil pH, a 40.6% decrease in CaCO₃, and a 200% increase in EC as compared with that of the non-irrigated soil. The soil OM increased from 0.04% to 0.35% in the surface layer. The irrigation of soil with wastewater resulted in transformation of metals from the carbonate fraction (CARB) towards the exchangeable (EXCH), Fe-Mn oxide (ERO), and organic (OM) fraction for Zn, towards the EXCH, the OM, and residual fraction for Cu, and towards the exchangeable (EXCH) fraction for Cd. It was concluded that the use of sewage wastewater led to salt accumulation and an increase in the readily labile fraction of Zn, Cu, and Cd in the surface layer. Therefore, this reason may limit the use of wastewater under arid and semi-arid conditions.     

Integrating phenological, chemical and biotic defences in ant-plant protection mutualisms: a case study of two myrmecophyte lineages

Summary. We examined the role of plant phenology in the evolution of anti-herbivore defence in symbiotic ant-plant protection mutualisms. Phenology of the host-plant affects traits of its herbivores, including size, growth rate, development time, and gregariousness. Traits of herbivores in turn determine what traits ants must have to protect their host. Diversity in plant phenological traits could thus help explain the great ecological diversity of coevolved ant-plant mutualisms. We explored the postulated causal chain linking phenology of the plant, herbivore adaptations to phenology, and ant adaptations for protection, by comparing two myrmecophytes presenting strong contrasts in phenology. In Leonardoxa africana, a slow-growing understory tree, growth at each twig terminal is intermittent, the rapid flushing of a single leaf-bearing internode being followed by a pause of several months. In contrast, axes of Barteria nigritana, a tree of open areas, grow continuously. Analysis of the phenology (kinetics of expansion) and chemistry of leaf development (contents of chlorophylls, lignin, and nitrogen during leaf growth) showed that these two species exhibit strongly contrasting strategies. Leonardoxa exhibited a delayed greening strategy, with rapid expansion of leaves during a short period, followed by synthesis of chlorophylls and lignins only after final leaf size has been reached. In contrast, leaves of Barteria expanded more slowly, with chlorophylls and lignin gradually synthesised throughout development. Differences in the phenology of leaf development are reflected in differences in the duration of larval development, and thereby in size, of the principal lepidopteran herbivores observed on these two plants. This difference may in turn have led to different requirements for effective defence by ants. The strategy of phenological defence may thus affect the evolution of biotic defence.     

Chemical ornaments of male lizards <Emphasis Type="Italic">Psammodromus algirus</Emphasis> may reveal their parasite load and health state to females

Evidence for parasite-mediated sexual selection has been found in many species that use visual ornaments to attract females. However, in many animals, variation in female responses to scents of parasitized males suggests that parasitic infections might also affect information conveyed by pheromones (i.e., chemical ornaments). Thus, pheromones might also function in parasite-mediated sexual selection. We show here that female lizards Psammodromus algirus responded differently to femoral gland secretions of males according to the parasite load and health of these males. Scents of healthier males elicited more tongue flicks (a chemosensory behavior) by females, suggesting that these scents were more attractive. Chemical analyses showed that parasite load and the T-cell-mediated immune response were related to the variability in the proportions of some lipids in secretions of males. Further trials testing the chemosensory responses of females to chemical standards indicated that females actually discriminated the chemicals related to males’ health from other chemicals found in secretions. We suggest that these chemical ornaments may provide reliable information on the health and degree of parasitic infection of a male.     

Chemical defense: incorporation of diet-derived pyrrolizidine alkaloid into the integumental scales of a moth (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Utetheisa ornatrix</Emphasis>)

Summary. Evidence is presented that pyrrolizidine alkaloid acquired by Utetheisa ornatrix (Lepidoptera, Arctiidae) as a larva from Crotalaria foodplants is incorporated in part into the scales of the adult. A single forewing of a male or female moth may contain in the order of 6 to 13 g monocrotaline in its scale cover or about 1 to 2% of the moths systemic monocrotaline content. Based on estimates of the number of scales per forewing, the monocrotaline content of individual scales is calculated to be in the order of 0.1 and 0.2 ng monocrotaline per male and female scale, respectively. This amounts to concentrations of about 1 and 3%, values roughly at a par with the average systemic concentration (0.5-0.6%) previously determined for monocrotaline in Utetheisa. It is argued that the presence of pyrrolizidine alkaloid in the moths scale coating could account for the promptness with which adult Utetheisa are rejected by spiders. It is suggested further that chemical impregnation of scales with substances deterrent to predators may be more widespread among insects than generally assumed.     

Chemical camouflage by myrmecophilous beetles Zyras comes (Coleoptera: Staphylinidae) and Diaritiger fossulatus (Coleoptera: Pselaphidae) to be integrated into the nest of Lasius fuliginosus (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)

Summary. The myrmecophilous beetles, Zyras comes (Staphylinidae) and Diaritiger fossulatus (Pselaphidae) are guests of the black shining ant Lasius fuliginosus. Host worker ants never attacked these beetles, and often gave regurgitant to Z. comes following tactile communication with the beetle. By contrast, the workers from colonies without the myrmecophiles showed hostile responses towards Z. comes before tactile contact, but were not aware of D. fossulatus until contact. In L. fuliginosus, workers within a colony shared profiles, but the profiles differed among colonies. GC analyses showed that both Z. comes and D. fossulatus beetles had the same hydrocarbons as L. fuliginosus, and the profiles were more similar to those of the host colony workers than the foreign workers. Both Z. comes and D. fossulatus appear to imitate the hydrocarbon profile of their host workers, allowing integrating into the host nest. A Y-maze bioassay indicated that Z. comes can follow the trail pheromone of L. fuliginosus. This suggests that Z. comes may detect other chemical signals of L. fuliginosus to keep closer interactions with the workers. Received 22 June 2001; accepted 12 November 2001.     

Pyrrolizidine alkaloids on three trophic levels – evidence for toxic and deterrent effects on phytophages and predators

Summary. Pyrrolizidine alkaloids (PAs) present a model system in the investigation of tritrophic interactions mediated by plant secondary compounds. However, their toxicity for insect herbivores has never been experimentally proven. Here, we demonstrate the toxic effects of a PA on growth and survival of the eri silk moth Philosamia ricini. In a feeding experiment, larvae of this generalist herbivore fed with an artificial PA diet gained weight significantly slower than control animals, and died as pupae. We suggest that derivatives of the ingested PA N-oxide damage developmental functions during metamorphosis. A tracer test with [¹⁴C]senecionine N-oxide revealed that the caterpillars lack adaptations that would prevent conversion of the chemical into the pro-toxic free base. In contrast, the PA adapted leaf beetle Longitarsus anchusae accumulates PAs as N-oxides. We tested the purpose of sequestration in this species as defence against predators. Through a series of prey choice experiments with three carabid predator species, chemically non-protected bark beetle pupae were chosen almost uniformly over L. anchusae pupae. In a following choice test with one of these predators, artificially PA-treated mealworm segments deterred the predator from feeding. Overall the study corroborates the immediate toxic effect of PAs on non-adapted herbivores and the protective effect that adapted insects may gain by sequestering them. It thereby underlines the potential for PAs to play a central role in multitrophic interactions between plants, phytophages and their predators.