“T”型地铁换乘站多点火灾工况下综合火灾危险性研究

为探究大型地铁站多线路火灾场景中的综合危险性,采用火灾动力学软件FDS构建“T”型换乘站全尺寸模型,对不同火源位置、不同火源功率以及是否开启地铁排烟风机等12组工况进行数值模拟;采用性能化方法确定可用疏散时间,并通过综合火灾风险评估方法计算各工况总安全指数。结果表明:1号线站厅层和2号线站台层双点火灾为最不利火灾场景;1号线站台层和2号线站厅层双点火灾为相对安全火灾场景;火源功率的增大会增加地铁火灾危险性,但不同火源位置工况中的安全指数变化趋势相似;排烟模式开启前,1号线站厅层火灾会导致较大的火灾危险性;排烟模式开启后,地铁总安全指数显著上升且安全指数变化趋势改变,此时2号线站台层火灾会导致较大的火灾危险性。     

基于社会技术系统的复工企业疫情防控风险路径研究*

为对复工企业疫情防控中的风险致因因素进行分析,探寻复工企业疫情防控的风险路径,基于社会技术系统理论,建立宏观工效学模型,通过查阅并分析国家、地方政府、企业文件以及相关文献,从人员、技术、组织管理、内部环境及外部环境5个子系统出发,识别出16个复工企业疫情失控致因因素;运用社会网络分析（SNA）构建复工企业疫情防控关系网络,对各因素节点中心度进行计算,分析各节点在网络中的位置及影响程度;采用贝叶斯网络（BN）进行参数学习和推理学习,找出复工企业疫情失控的最大致因链。结果表明:复工企业疫情失控关系网络中,存在政府监督管理不力→防疫物资筹备不足→日常监管不到位,政府监督管理不力→ 防疫宣传、培训缺失→员工防疫知识欠缺,政府监督管理不力→防疫宣传、培训缺失→日常监管不到位3条最长风险路径。研究结果可帮助复工企业针对最长风险路径中的因素进行管理,从而有效地为复工企业防疫提供理论支持。     

基于蒙特卡洛模拟的多米诺事故风险量化管理*

为降低危化品相关的化工事故造成的人员伤亡和财产损失,以化工多米诺事故为研究对象,探讨由初始事故引发1个或多个次生事故的连锁反应机理与风险评估方法。提出应用蒙特卡洛模拟对多米诺事故风险进行动态量化的方法,梳理化工多米诺事故风险的识别、分析、评定、处理全周期管理流程,并以1个天然气压气站为案例,验证基于蒙卡模拟的化工多米诺事故风险量化方法的有效性。结果表明:该方法可以更准确地对化工多米诺事故风险进行定量评估。多米诺事故风险全周期管理流程的梳理能够有效指导化工企业开展安全管理、事故预防等工作。     

基于等级全息建模的输油泵机组风险根源辨识*

为“挖掘”输油泵机组风险根源,降低设备预知性维护难度,结合输油泵多准则风险评价,提出1种基于等级全息建模的输油泵机组风险根源辨识方法,运用等级全息建模方法将输油泵系统分解为泵体结构、管理因素、环境因素、操作因素、技术因素、运行因素、设备安装7个子系统进行定性和定量分析。结果表明:相比危险与可操作性分析（HAZOP）、事故树分析（FTA）等传统风险辨识方法,等级全息建模（HHM）对轴承等关键部件以及压力等运行参数的监测更为深入,能够有效辨识输油泵机组高风险情景,提升输油泵的风险辨识效率。     

Does longevity impact the severity of traffic crashes? A comparative study of young-older and old-older drivers

Introduction: This article analyzes the effect of driver’s age in crash severity with a particular focus on those over the age of 65. The greater frequency and longevity of older drivers around the world suggests the need to introduce a possible segmentation within this group at risk, thus eliminating the generic interval of 65 and over as applied today in road safety data and in the automobile insurance sector. Method: We investigate differences in the severity of traffic crashes among two subgroups of older drivers –young-older (65–75) and old-older (75+), and findings are compared with the age interval of drivers under 65. Here, we draw on data for 2016 provided by Spanish Traffic Authority. Parametric and semi-parametric regression models are applied. Results: We identified the factors related to the crash, vehicle, and driver that have a significant impact on the probability of the crash being slight, serious, or fatal for the different age groups. Conclusions: We found that crash severity and the expected costs of crashes significantly increase when the driver is over the age of 75. Practical Applications: Our results have obvious implications for regulators responsible for road safety policies – most specifically as they consider there should be specific driver licensing requirements and driving training for elderly – and for the automobile insurance industry, which to date has not examined the impact that the longevity of drivers is likely to have on their balance sheets.     

基于模糊推理的FRAM事故定量分析方法研究

为有效克服FRAM事故分析中无法进行定量分析的缺陷,提出结合模糊推理技术的Fuzzy FRAM模型。此改进模型基于FRAM识别系统运行状态;依据功能输出要素的时间/精度属性利用Matlab构建2阶模糊推理系统量化功能输出质量;根据通用性能条件(CPC)及功能输入耦合端口构建功能评价体系,针对评价体系中存在的不确定性信息融合及建模问题,采用模糊证据推理技术,通过模糊信度结构建立、数据处理、信息融合测度后获得功能的风险指数;以既有铁路危险品运输事故为例,验证方法的可行性。结果表明:Fuzzy FRAM模型的评估结果较为精确,是FRAM分析方法的有效补充。     

畜禽环境中抗生素的去除及其风险评估

抗生素作为饲料添加剂广泛应用于畜禽养殖业,造成养殖环境抗生素大量蓄积,尤其是在畜禽粪便中,长期的积累不仅污染养殖场内土壤环境,残留的抗生素还会随畜禽粪便进入周边水体及农田环境,威胁农作物及人体健康。目前,国内相关研究主要集中在抗生素的降解工艺及降解规律方面,而对其去除效率的影响因素及风险评价研究相对较少。笔者综述了国内外抗生素的降解转化及去除方式等的研究进展,并概述了抗生素在畜禽环境中的生态风险评估的研究现状,为抗生素的高效去除、风险预估及畜禽粪便资源化安全利用提供理论基础和技术支撑。     

天津市地表水体与沉积物中7种高关注酚类化合物的污染特征与生态风险分析

为探究地表水体与沉积物中酚类化合物的污染分布特征和生态风险,选择天津市3个水源地与6条主要河流,采集了26个地表水样与6个沉积物样品,利用固相萃取与超声萃取、高效液相色谱-串联质谱法(HPLC-MS/MS)测定了水样及沉积物中1-萘酚(1-naphthol)、壬基酚(nonylphenol, NP)、双酚A(bisphenol A, BPA)、2-苯基苯酚(biphenyl-2-ol)、3,4-二氯酚(3,4-dichlorophenol)、四溴双酚A(tetrabromobisphenol A, TBBPA)和对叔丁基苯酚(p-tert-butylphenol, PTBP)等7种高关注酚类化合物的浓度水平,并应用物种敏感性分布(species sensitivity distribution, SSD)法和熵值法(ecological risk quotient, RQ)评估7种酚类化合物水环境和沉积物的生态风险。结果表明,地表水样中7种酚类化合物均全部检出;其中壬基酚的检出浓度最高,其次为四溴双酚A、对叔丁基苯酚、1-萘酚、2-苯基苯酚、3,4-二氯酚和双酚A。沉积物中酚类化合物的污染分布规律与水样相似,除双酚A外的目标物全部检出。其中,壬基酚浓度比其他物质浓度高2个数量级。风险评估结果显示,壬基酚对水环境与沉积物存在不可接受的风险;而四溴双酚A、对叔丁基苯酚、1-萘酚、2-苯基苯酚、3,4-二氯酚和双酚A则对环境具有较低风险或者存在一定的风险。     

Utilization of MSWI fly ash as partial cement or sand substitute with focus on cementing efficiency and health risk assessment

• Washed MSWI fly ash was used as partial cement or sand substitute. • Sand replacing is beneficial for strength, while cement replacement reduces strength. • Cementing efficiency factor and mortar pore structure explain the strength results. • Health risk assessment was conducted for MSWI fly ash blended cement mortar. • CR and HI contributed by different exposures and heavy metals were analyzed. The strength of cement substituted mortar decreases with the increase in fly ash amount, whereas the strength increases when the fly ash is blended as sand substitute. A mortar with highest strength (compressive strength= 30.2 Mpa; flexural strength= 7.0 Mpa) was obtained when the sand replacement ratio was 0.75%. The k value (cementing efficiency) of fly ash varied between 0.36 and 0.15 for the fly ash fraction in binder between 5% and 25%. The k values of fly ash used for sand replacement were all significantly above that used for cement substitution. The macropores assigned to the gaps between particles decreased when the fly ash was used as sand replacement, providing an explanation for the strength enhancement. The waste-extraction procedure (toxicity-sulphuric acid and nitric acid method (HJ/T 299-2007)) was used to evaluate metal leaching, indicating the reuse possibility of fly ash blended mortar. For the mortar with the mass ratio of fly ash to binder of 0.5%, the carcinogenic risks (CR) and non-carcinogenic hazard quotient (HQ) in sensitive scenario for blended mortar utilization were 9.66 × 10^-7 and 0.06, respectively; these results were both lower than the threshold values, showing an acceptable health risk. The CR (9.89 × 10^-5) and HQ (3.89) of the non-sensitive scenario for fly ash treatment exceeded the acceptable threshold values, indicating health risks to onsite workers. The main contributor to the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk is Cr and Cd, respectively. The CR and HQ from inhalation was the main route of heavy metal exposure.     

What happened to the Second World? Earthquakes and postsocialism in Kazakhstan

There is an assumption that with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Second World ceased to exist. Yet the demise of the Communist bloc as a geopolitical reality did not mean that it stopped exerting a defining influence over how people think and behave. This article examines how the postsocialist state in Kazakhstan deals with potential crises such as earthquakes and the extent to which the Soviet legacy still shapes intellectual debates, state structures, and civil society organisations in in that country. Drawing on fieldwork and interviews, this paper re-examines the Second World in its historical context and re-establishes it as a conceptual framework for considering disaster risk reduction in the former Soviet bloc. It argues that it is essential to pay attention to this legacy in Kazakhstan both in policy and practice if earthquake risk reduction is to be made more effective.