城市天然气管道风险特征与肯特法的改进

根据城市高压天然气管道特点,将适合于城市天然气管道风险分析的肯特评分法加以改进,包括调整评分项目和事故因素权重,使其成为适于城市天然气管道的风险分析法。将改进后的肯特评分法应用于常州21km高压天然气管道的风险评价,得出8个相对高风险管段,其分析结果可作为安全管理人员合理分配维护资源的理论依据。工程应用实例证明:改进后的肯特法具有较强的可行性,是城市高压天然气管道风险评估的有效工具。     

建筑火灾风险评价体系的建立与应用探讨

探讨基于安全系统工程思想的建筑火灾风险评价指标体系的建立方法,并在该基础上,通过专家打分和层次分析法,计算得出各指标因子的权重值。根据有关标准和规范,对各评价指标因子进行等级划分,并设计出建筑火灾风险综合分值评分表,为厘定火灾保险费率提供依据。笔者的研究成果为完善建筑火灾风险评价方法、制定财产保险火灾风险评价标准等提供了科学依据。     

Carbon capture and storage-desirability from a risk management point of view

Environmental and safety risks related to carbon capture and storage concern leakages and accidental releases during transport and geological storage. Based on principles widely accepted in the EU and beyond in the discussion about the where’s and why’s of nuclear waste repositories, this paper discusses the desirability of carbon capture and storage from a risk management point of view, focusing on environmental risks on the global level (climate change). On this basis it is concluded that, if the key energy issue of coming generations, not just in Europe but all around the world, is not the abundance of fossil resources but rather an unacceptably high probability of global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions, then the solution should not include any massive hiding of the emissions but entirely focus on the avoidance based on improved technology in power plants and other industrial installations.     

Effect of spatial variation on salinity tolerance of macroinvertebrates in Eastern Australia and implications for ecosystem protection trigger values

Salinisation of freshwater has been identified as a serious environmental issue in Australia and around the world. Protective concentrations (trigger values) for salinity can be used to manage salinity impacts, though require locally relevant salinity tolerance information. 72-h acute salinity tolerance values were determined for 102 macroinvertebrates collected from 11 locations in four biologically distinct freshwater bio-regions in Northeast Australia and compared with sensitivities observed in Southeast Australia. The salinity tolerance of individual taxa was consistent across Northeast Australia and between Northeast and Southeast Australia. However, two distinct communities were identified in Northeast Australia using distributions of the acute tolerance values and a calculated index of salinity sensitivity. Salinity trigger values should therefore be representative of local or regionally relevant communities and may be adequately calculated using sensitivity values from throughout Eastern Australia. The results presented provide a basis for assessing salinity risk and determining trigger values for salinity in freshwater ecosystems at local and regional scales in Eastern Australia.     

基于岩体质量指标Q分类系统的风险分析方法

基于岩体质量指标Q分类系统,应用Monte-Carlo模拟技术,研究了岩体质量风险分析方法。该方法视Q分类系统中各单因素取值为随机变量,建立了各单因素取值概率模型;通过对所建模型的抽样计算,可获取所评价岩体实际Q值小于设计所采用Q值的概率;通过对比分析Q值累计曲线和岩体质量分布图,可得到任意Q值对应的风险概率,查清岩体中可能出现的质量等级以及每个质量等级所占百分比的情况。本文研究成果已在青岛胶州湾海底隧道工程中得到应用,并获得良好效果。     

Governing the Borderlands: Decoding the Power of Aid

This article examines aid practice, that is, the public-private contractual networks that link donor governments, UN agencies, military establishments, NGOs, private companies and others, as a relation of global liberal governance. In order to fulfil this function, such networks embody what could be called the 'securitisation' of international assistance. Based upon ideas of human security and ameliorating the effects of poverty and vulnerability reduction, aid is now seen as playing a direct security role. Rather than being concerned with relations between states, the primary aim of this security paradigm is to modulate and change the behaviour of populations within them. In doing so, it is able to exploit the opportunities afforded by privatisation. At the same time, however, aid as security is confronted by its own particular problem of 'governing at a distance'; how can calculations made by leading states be transformed into actions at the global edge when a multitude of private and non-government implementors now intervene? The article concludes by examining the contribution of risk analysis to solving this problem and, especially, the development of new contractual regimes based around technical standardisation, benchmarking and performance auditing. Through such technologies, metropolitan states are learning how to manage the public-private networks of aid practice and, as a result, to govern the borderlands in new ways.     

南漪湖沉积物磷的赋存形态及对上覆水的影响

以宣城市南漪湖为例,采用改进的无机磷分级提取方法对全湖共39个点位沉积物中磷(P)赋存形态进行系统研究,并分析其与上覆水体、间隙水等相互关系.结果表明,南漪湖水体磷污染水平已经处于高位,沉积物间隙水磷与上覆水体磷空间分布特征具有密切关系.南漪湖沉积物中总磷(TP)含量变化范围为463.3～1016.6mg/kg,其中各形态磷空间分布具有明显的差异性,与外源磷输入等密切相关.赋存形态含量大小、相对比例顺序依次为:钙结合态磷(Ca-P)>铁结合态磷(Fe-P)>铝结合态磷(Al-P)>还原剂可溶性磷(RS-P)>残渣态磷(Res-P)>弱吸附态磷(L-P).沉积物中TP含量与Fe-P、RS-P、Res-P极显著正相关,与L-P含量显著正相关.外源磷输入和水产养殖对南漪湖沉积物内源磷中Fe-P和RS-P贡献可能较大.南漪湖沉积物内源磷对上覆水体的潜在风险较高,其中生物有效性较高的L-P、Al-P、Fe-P和Rs-P的总和相对比例可达60%左右.沉积物中磷形态与间隙水磷浓度关系较密切,其中Al-P、Ca-P对间隙水中磷迁移转化具有重要影响.南漪湖主要出入湖河口沉积...     

广州市居民家庭室内灰尘中传统和新型阻燃剂与塑化剂的污染特征及健康风险评估

近年来,随着阻燃剂多溴联苯醚(PBDEs)和以邻苯二甲酸酯(PAEs)为代表的传统型塑化剂(LPs)的逐步禁用或限用,有机磷系阻燃剂(PFRs)等新型阻燃剂及替代型塑化剂(APs)的生产和使用呈逐年增长的趋势,其环境污染特征和人体暴露健康风险值得引起广泛关注.目前,灰尘已广泛用于室内环境中PBDEs、PFRs和LPs等半挥发性有机污染物(SVOCs)的污染特征评估,而关于室内灰尘中APs的污染特征则鲜有报道.本研究以广州市42户普通居民家庭为研究对象,采集家庭室内灰尘并分析了PFRs、PBDEs、LPs和APs的含量及组成特征.结果表明,PFRs、PBDEs、LPs和APs在室内灰尘中均有广泛检出,其含量分别为593.28～11531.56、13.45～27029.13、40494.83～1154497.16和15365.19～1013352.51 ng·g^-1.大多数家庭中,PFRs和部分APs在灰尘中的含量呈现高于PBDEs和LPs的特征,PFRs和APs等新型污染物的人体暴露健康风险需引起高度关注.采用暴露模型评估人体经灰尘摄入和皮肤接触对目标污染物的日均暴...     

集中式饮用水源地邻苯二甲酸酯类物质分布特征与健康风险评估

以某地区7个集中式饮用水源地为研究对象,采用固相萃取气相色谱-质谱法(SPE-GC-MS)对水体中16种邻苯二甲酸酯的分布特征和溯源进行了研究,并利用健康风险评估模型对水体PAEs进行了健康风险评价。结果表明:邻苯二甲酸二正丁酯、邻苯二甲酸二(2-乙基己基)酯、邻苯二甲酸二异丁酯和邻苯二甲酸二正辛酯在所有PAEs同系物中含量丰富,而所有样品均无邻苯二甲酸二(2-甲氧基)乙酯和邻苯二甲酸二戊酯的检出;二水厂和亨达水务断面Σ_(16)PAEs浓度最高,四水厂和五水厂断面Σ_(16)PAEs浓度最低;水体12种PAEs共提出3个主成分,揭示了91%的影响因子;层次聚类分析表明:7个采样断面聚为2类,分别代表了内河和长江水体。水体中PAEs的致癌风险值和非致癌风险值均远低于参考值,说明研究水体PAEs不会对居民构成致癌风险或其他明显的健康风险,但需加强该地区PAEs使用的规范与监管,强化末端处理,以规避风险。     

煤矸石山周围塌陷区水体中多环芳烃调查与生态风险评价

以煤矿区及煤矸石的污染特征为依据,选取16种EPA优先控制多环芳烃（PAHs）污染物,采用高效液相色谱法对不同堆积年限的矿区煤矸石山周围塌陷区的水体样品进行测试,分别分析此类水体中单个PAHs和总PAHs的分布情况及水体中PAHs不同环数的组成情况,并采用风险商值法进行水体生态风险评价,指出此类水体的不当开发利用会引起人体健康危害。