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Seong J. Kim Hyo S. Chae Chul S. Yoo Sa C. Shin 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2003,39(5):1143-1155
ABSTRACT: A grid based daily hydrologic model for a watershed with paddy fields was developed to predict the stream discharge. ASCII formatted elevation, soil, and land use data supported by the GRASS Geographic Information System are used to generate distributed results such as surface runoff and subsurface flow, soil water content, and evapotranspiration. The model uses a single flow path algorithm and simulates a water balance at each grid element. A linear reservoir assumption was used to predict subsurface runoff components. The model was applied to a 75.6 km2 watershed located in the middle of South Korea, and observed stream flow hydrographs from 1995 and 1996 were compared to model predictions. The stream flow predictions of 1995 and 1996 generally agreed with the observed flow, resulting in a Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency R2 of 0.60 and 0.62, respectively. The hydraulic conductivity for percolating water through the saturated layer affected baseflow generation. The levee height of the paddy influenced the time and magnitude of the surface runoff, depending on irrigation management. The model will be used for making low flow management decisions by evaluating the role of each land use to stream flow, especially in case of paddy decrease by gradual urbanization of a watershed. 相似文献
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针对四川石油天然气工业环境统计中存在的非稳定污染源监测数据的统计价值不高,统计调查方法单一,个别统计指标计算未使用国家统一标准等现状,从环境监测站改组入手,改革统计调查方法,建立以必要的周期性普查为基础,以经常性的抽样调查为主体,同时辅之以全面统计报表,重点调查和科学推算综合运用的统计调查方法体系。 相似文献
25.
模糊集值统计法在煤矿安全评价指标权值中的应用 总被引:8,自引:1,他引:8
应用模糊集值统计的理论 ,对煤矿安全评价中具有随机性和模糊性的指标进行数学分析 ,进一步改进了其权值的确定方法 ,使其更加符合实际情况 ,并对由此得出的权值进行了可靠性分析。通过实例表明 ,该方法克服了经典统计法的不足 ,提高了煤矿安全评价的实用性和科学性 相似文献
26.
Gregory F. Mclsaac Matthew B. Short George Groschen Paul Terrio 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2004,40(2):443-459
ABSTRACT: Long term data on surface water quality can sometimes be assembled by combining data collected by different agencies at different times and assuming that between agency differences in data quality are insignificant. The objective of this paper was to assess the quality of riverine nitrate (NO3) concentrations in Illinois measured and reported by four agencies from 1967 to 1974 by comparing median values for similar sampling locations and periods. A total of 17 river reaches were identified for which two agencies reported NO3 concentrations during similar periods. Nonparametric comparison of median values and analysis of covariance with discharge as a covariant produced similar results. Nitrate concentrations reported by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) from 1967 to 1971 were not statistically (P > 0.05) different from values reported by the Illinois State Water Survey (ISWS) for two of three river reaches. Additionally, NO3 concentrations reported by USGS from 1972 to 1974 were not statistically different than concentrations reported by the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency (IEPA) for four of five river reaches. From 1969 to 1971, NO3 concentrations reported by the Illinois Department of Public Heath and the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency (IDPH/IEPA) were less than one‐fourth the magnitude of values reported by ISWS. The median NO3 concentrations measured by the Central Illinois Public Service (CIPS) were significantly greater than those measured by USGS and IDPH/IEPA in the three comparable sampling locations. The use of NO3 concentrations measured by CIPS and IDPH/IEPA prior to 1972 is not recommended. 相似文献
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E. Conrad Lamon Song S. Qian Daniel D. Richter 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2004,40(5):1219-1229
ABSTRACT: Dynamic linear models (DLM) and seasonal trend decomposition (STL) using local regression, or LOESS, were used to analyze the 50‐year time series of suspended sediment concentrations for the Yadkin River, measured at the U.S. Geological Survey station at Yadkin College, North Carolina. A DLM with constant trend, seasonality, and a log10 streamflow regressor provided the best model to predict monthly mean log10 suspended sediment concentrations, based on the forecast log likelihood. Using DLM, there was evidence (odds approximately 69:1) that the log10 streamflow versus log10 suspended sediment concentration relationship has changed, with an approximate 20 percent increase in the log10 streamflow coefficient over the period 1981 to 1996. However, sediment concentrations in the Yadkin River have decreased during the decade of the 1990s, which has been accompanied by a concomitant increase in streamflow variability. Although STL has been shown to be a versatile trend analysis technique, DLM is shown to be more suitable for discovery and inference of structural changes (trends) in the model coefficient describing the relationship between flow and sediment concentration. 相似文献
28.
The Bhopal Gas Leak, India 1984 is the largest chemical industrial accident ever. Haddon's and Berger's models for injury analysis have been tested, together with the project planning tool Logical Framework Approach (LFA).
The three models provide the same main message: That irrespectively of the direct cause to the leakage, it is only two parties that are responsible for the magnitude of the disaster: Union Carbide Corporation and the Governments of India and Madhya Pradesh. The models give somewhat different images of the process of the accident.
Models developed for analysis of injuries can be used for analysing a complicated mega accident like the Bhopal gas leak, although different models might stress different aspects. 相似文献
29.
Anna Eleria Richard M. Vogel 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2005,41(5):1195-1209
In Massachusetts, the Charles River Watershed Association conducts a regular water quality monitoring and public notification program in the Charles River Basin during the recreational season to inform users of the river's health. This program has relied on laboratory analyses of river samples for fecal coliform bacteria levels, however, results are not available until at least 24 hours after sampling. To avoid the need for laboratory analyses, ordinary least squares (OLS) and logistic regression models were developed to predict fecal coliform bacteria concentrations and the probabilities of exceeding the Massachusetts secondary contact recreation standard for bacteria based on meteorological conditions and streamflow. The OLS models resulted in adjusted R2s ranging from 50 to 60 percent. An uncertainty analysis reveals that of the total variability of fecal coliform bacteria concentrations, 45 percent is explained by the OLS regression model, 15 percent is explained by both measurement and space sampling error, and 40 percent is explained by time sampling error. Higher accuracy in future bacteria forecasting models would likely result from reductions in laboratory measurement errors and improved sampling designs. 相似文献
30.
John F. Paul Michael E. McDonald 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2005,41(5):1211-1223
The need for scientifically defensible water quality standards for nonpoint source pollution control continues to be a pressing environmental issue. The probability of impact at differing levels of nonpoint source pollution was determined using the biological response of instream organisms empirically obtained from a statistical survey. A conditional probability analysis was used to calculate a biological threshold of impact as a function of the likelihood of exceeding a given value of pollution metric for a specified geographic area. Uncertainty and natural variability were inherently incorporated into the analysis through the use of data from a probabilistic survey. Data from wadable streams in the mid‐Atlantic area of the U.S. were used to demonstrate the approach. Benthic macroinvertebrate community index values (EPT taxa richness) were used to identify impacted stream communities. Percent fines in substrate (silt/clay fraction, > 0.06 mm) were used as a surrogate indicator for sedimentation. Thresholds of impact due to sedimentation were identified by three different techniques, and were in the range of 12 to 15 percent fines. These values were consistent with existing literature from laboratory and field studies on the impact of sediments on aquatic life in freshwater streams. All results were different from values determined from current regulatory guidance. Finally, it was illustrated how these thresholds could be used to develop criterion for protection of aquatic life in streams. 相似文献