Physical Determinants of Methane Oxidation Capacity in a Temperate Soil

Methane oxidation capacity of soil from an experimentalsite in Northwest England was strongly dependent on temperatureand percentage water holding capacity. The soil had a distincttemperature optimum of 25 °C, with capacity for net methaneoxidation being completely lost below 5 and greater than37 °C. Optimum percentage water holding capacity for methaneoxidation was in the range 30–60%, with significant reductions inmethane oxidation rates in soils outside this range. Organic andmineral layers within the soil showed differences in potentialmethane oxidation rate, with methane oxidation being most rapid inthe buried organic layer and least rapid in the surface organiclayer. The importance of soil structure and gas diffusionlimitation is underlined, as is the strong temperature dependenceof methane oxidation when such diffusion limitation is removed.     

豫西地区植被覆盖的空间变化研究

应用遥感技术,利用长时间序列的SPOT VEGETATION NDVI数据集,结合改进的像元二分模型,对豫西山区1998年、2003年和2008年的植被覆盖度进行计算。结果表明,豫西山区植被覆盖总体上略有上升,局部地区植被覆盖度有所下降。高海拔区域植被覆盖相对稳定,退化概率较低;低海拔区域植被退化和恢复的概率都相对较高;坡度小的区域植被退化和修复的概率都较高;坡度较大的区域植被轻微退化概率增大,坡度越大,植被覆盖修复的概率越低;南坡和北坡植被覆盖度相对较高,东坡和西坡植被覆盖度较低;西南坡向的植被退化相对严重,东南坡向植被退化概率相对较低。     

The Impending Peak and Decline of Petroleum Production: an Underestimated Challenge for Conservation of Ecological Integrity

Abstract: In the last few decades petroleum has been consumed at a much faster pace than new reserves have been discovered. The point at which global oil extraction will attain a peak (“peak oil”) and begin a period of unavoidable decline is approaching. This eventuality will drive fundamental changes in the quantity and nature of energy flows through the human economic system, which probably will be accompanied by economic turmoil, political conflicts, and a high level of social tension. Besides being a geological and economic issue, peak oil is also a fundamental concern as it pertains to ecological systems and conservation because economics is a subsystem of the global ecosystem and changes in human energy‐related behaviors can lead to a broad range of effects on natural ecosystems, ranging from overuse to abandonment. As it becomes more difficult to meet energy demands, environmental considerations may be easily superseded. Given the vital importance of ecosystems and ecosystem services in a postpetroleum era, it is crucially important to wisely manage our ecosystems during the transition period to an economy based on little or no use of fossil fuels. Good policies can be formulated through awareness and understanding gained from scenario‐based assessments. Presently, most widely used global scenarios of environmental change do not incorporate resource limitation, including those of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Considering the potential magnitude of the effects of peak oil on society and nature, the development of resource‐constrained scenarios should be addressed immediately. Ecologists and conservation biologists are in an important position to analyze the situation and provide guidance, yet the topic is noticeably absent from ecological discussions. We urge politicians, corporate chief executives, thought leaders, and citizens to consider this problem seriously because it is likely to develop into one of the key environmental issues of the 21st century.     

Global effects of extreme temperatures on wild bumblebees

Climate plays a key role in shaping population trends and determining the geographic distribution of species because of limits in species’ thermal tolerance. An evaluation of species tolerance to temperature change can therefore help predict their potential spatial shifts and population trends triggered by ongoing global warming. We assessed inter- and intraspecific variations in heat resistance in relation to body mass, local mean temperatures, and evolutionary relationships in 39 bumblebee species, a major group of pollinators in temperate and cold ecosystems, across 3 continents, 6 biomes, and 20 regions (2386 male specimens). Based on experimental bioassays, we measured the time before heat stupor of bumblebee males at a heatwave temperature of 40 °C. Interspecific variability was significant, in contrast to interpopulational variability, which was consistent with heat resistance being a species-specific trait. Moreover, cold-adapted species are much more sensitive to heat stress than temperate and Mediterranean species. Relative to their sensitivity to extreme temperatures, our results help explain recent population declines and range shifts in bumblebees following climate change.     

Adapting cities to climate change – exploring the flood risk management role of green infrastructure landscapes

There is now an emerging sense of the scope and nature of response that can be implemented at building and neighbourhood scales to help adapt cities and urban areas to the changing climate. In comparison, the role of larger natural and semi-natural landscapes that surround and permeate cities is less well understood. Addressing this knowledge gap, this paper outlines two case studies that describe and map the flood risk management functions offered by green infrastructure landscapes situated within the Urban Mersey Basin in North West England. The case studies establish that areas potentially exposed to flooding can be located at some distance, and within different jurisdictions, from upstream areas where the flood hazard may be generated and could be moderated via functions provided by green infrastructure landscapes. This raises planning and governance challenges connected to supporting and enhancing flood risk management functions provided by green infrastructure landscapes.     

A Strategy for Monitoring and Managing Declines in an Amphibian Community

Although many taxa have declined globally, conservation actions are inherently local. Ecosystems degrade even in protected areas, and maintaining natural systems in a desired condition may require active management. Implementing management decisions under uncertainty requires a logical and transparent process to identify objectives, develop management actions, formulate system models to link actions with objectives, monitor to reduce uncertainty and identify system state (i.e., resource condition), and determine an optimal management strategy. We applied one such structured decision‐making approach that incorporates these critical elements to inform management of amphibian populations in a protected area managed by the U.S. National Park Service. Climate change is expected to affect amphibian occupancy of wetlands and to increase uncertainty in management decision making. We used the tools of structured decision making to identify short‐term management solutions that incorporate our current understanding of the effect of climate change on amphibians, emphasizing how management can be undertaken even with incomplete information. Estrategia para Monitorear y Manejar Disminuciones en una Comunidad de Anfibios     

Assessment of Management to Mitigate Anthropogenic Effects on Large Whales

United States and Canadian governments have responded to legal requirements to reduce human‐induced whale mortality via vessel strikes and entanglement in fishing gear by implementing a suite of regulatory actions. We analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of mortality of large whales in the Northwest Atlantic (23.5°N to 48.0°N), 1970 through 2009, in the context of management changes. We used a multinomial logistic model fitted by maximum likelihood to detect trends in cause‐specific mortalities with time. We compared the number of human‐caused mortalities with U.S. federally established levels of potential biological removal (i.e., species‐specific sustainable human‐caused mortality). From 1970 through 2009, 1762 mortalities (all known) and serious injuries (likely fatal) involved 8 species of large whales. We determined cause of death for 43% of all mortalities; of those, 67% (502) resulted from human interactions. Entanglement in fishing gear was the primary cause of death across all species (n = 323), followed by natural causes (n = 248) and vessel strikes (n = 171). Established sustainable levels of mortality were consistently exceeded in 2 species by up to 650%. Probabilities of entanglement and vessel‐strike mortality increased significantly from 1990 through 2009. There was no significant change in the local intensity of all or vessel‐strike mortalities before and after 2003, the year after which numerous mitigation efforts were enacted. So far, regulatory efforts have not reduced the lethal effects of human activities to large whales on a population‐range basis, although we do not exclude the possibility of success of targeted measures for specific local habitats that were not within the resolution of our analyses. It is unclear how shortfalls in management design or compliance relate to our findings. Analyses such as the one we conducted are crucial in critically evaluating wildlife‐management decisions. The results of these analyses can provide managers with direction for modifying regulated measures and can be applied globally to mortality‐driven conservation issues. Evaluación del Manejo para Mitigar Efectos Antropogénicos sobre Ballenas Mayores     

A case study on project-level CO2 mitigation costs in industrialised countries: the Climate Cent Foundation in Switzerland

This paper analyses CO₂ emissions reduction costs based on project data from the Climate Cent Foundation (CCF), a climate policy instrument in Switzerland. Four conclusions are drawn. First, for the projects investigated, the CCF on average pays €63/ton. Due to the Kyoto Protocol, the CCF buys reductions only until 2012. This cut-off increases reported per ton reduction costs, as the additional lifetime project costs are set in relation to reductions only until 2012, rather than to reductions realised over the whole lifetime. Lifetime reduction costs are €45/t. Second, correlation between CCF's payments and lifetime reduction costs per ton is low. Projects with low per ton reduction costs should thus be identified based on lifetime per ton reduction costs. Third, the wide range of project costs per ton observed casts doubts on the widely used identification of the merit order of reduction measures based on average per ton costs for technology types. Finally, the CCF covers only a fraction of additional reduction costs. Decisions to take reduction efforts thus depend on additional, non-observable and/or non-economic motives. Any generalisation of results has to consider that this analysis is based on prospective costs of a sub-sample of projects in Switzerland.     

Evaluating the cost of flood damage based on changes in extreme rainfall in Japan

We estimated the cost of flood damage using numerical simulations based on digital map data and the flood control economy investigation manual submitted by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transportation, and Tourism in Japan. The simulation was carried out using a flood model incorporating representative precipitation data for all of Japan. The economic predictions, which estimate flood damage caused by extreme rainfall for the return periods of 5, 10, 30 50, and 100 years, are as follows: (1) the cost of flood damage increases nearly linearly with increases in extreme precipitation; (2) assuming that flood protection is completed for a 50-year return period of extreme rainfall, the benefit of flood protection for a 100-year return period of rainfall is estimated to be 210 billion USD; (3) the average annual expected damage cost for flooding is predicted to be approximately 10 billion USD per year, based on the probability of precipitation for a return period of 100 years and assuming that flood control infrastructures will be completed within the 50-year return period and will be able to protect from flooding with a 50-year return period; (4) urban and rural areas are predicted to suffer high and low costs of damage, respectively. These findings will help to derive measures to enhance flood protection resulting from climate change.     

Which forcing factors fit? Using ecosystem models to investigate the relative influence of fishing and changes in primary productivity on the dynamics of marine ecosystems

Fishing mortality and primary production (or proxy for) were used to drive the dynamics of fish assemblages in 9 trophodynamic models of contrasting marine ecosystems. Historical trends in abundance were reconstructed by fitting model predictions to observations from stock assessments and fisheries independent survey data. The model fitting exercise derives values for otherwise unknown parameters that specify the relative strength of trophic interactions and, in some instances, a time series anomaly for changes in primary production. We measured how much better or worse were model predictions when bottom-up forcing by primary production were added to top-down forcing by fishing. Searching for cross system patterns, the relative contribution of fishing and changes in primary production, mediated through trophic interactions, are evaluated for the ecosystems as a whole and for selected similar species in different ecosystems. The analysis provides a simple qualitative way to explain which forcing factors have most influence on modeled dynamics. Both fishing and primary production forcing were required to obtain the best model fits to data. Fishing effects more strongly influenced 6 of 9 of the ecosystems, but primary production was more often found to be the main factor influencing the selected pelagic and demersal fish stock trends. Examination of sensitivity to ecological and model parameters suggests that the results are the product of complex food-web interactions rather than simple deterministic responses of the models.