自然灾害研究的几个问题

本文从分析自然灾害的定义、种类入手,论述了灾害链、灾害的群发性及自然灾害对社会的影响,并就自然灾害的综合区划、影响评价和预测的研究作了概述。     

Soil arthropods (Coleoptera,Isopoda) in organic and conventional agroecosystems

The relationship between two soil arthropod communities (Coleoptera and Isopoda) in organic and conventional fields was investigated. Soil arthropods were sampled by pitfall traps, and fuzzy set theory and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) were used for their classification. The study was conducted in: (1) two organic and two conventional vineyards, (2) two organic and two conventional olive groves, and (3) one organic rotation system that involved maize and one conventional maize field. The species composition (three main fuzzy groups) was affected by the crop species and not by the farming system. The CCA placed the rare and unique taxa of soil arthropods at the edges of the diagram and grouped most of them together in relation to soil organic matter and Ca. The same analysis grouped all olive groves and related them to soil organic matter, all vineyards and related them to soil P and, finally, all maize fields and related them to soil N.     

Understanding the dynamics and competitiveness of the South African minerals inputs cluster

South Africa has developed niche competencies around the extraction and processing of mineral resources. Firms involved in the manufacture and supply of inputs to mining and mineral processing represent a key source of competitive advantage upon which future growth and development in the country can be planned. Drawing on a qualitative and quantitative study of 678 supplier firms conducted in 2004, this paper presents an assessment of the state of the South African minerals inputs cluster. The various demand and supply relationships, dynamics, and growth opportunities within the cluster are highlighted and the threats affecting the cluster's future competitiveness reviewed. The interventions needed to overcome and/or enhance them are also identified.     

Data mining approach to model bus crash severity in Australia

Introduction: Buses are different vehicles in terms of dimensions, maneuverability, and driver's vision. Although bus traveling is a safe mode to travel, the number of annual bus crashes cannot be neglected. Moreover, limited studies have been conducted on the bus involved in fatal crashes. Therefore, identification of the contributing factors in the bus involved fatal crashes can reduce the risk of fatality. Method: Data set of bus involved crashes in the State of Victoria, Australia was analyzed over the period of 2006–2019. Clustering of crash data was accomplished by dividing them into homogeneous categories, and by implementing association rules discovery on the clusters, the factors affecting fatality in bus involved crashes were extracted. Results: Clustering results show bus crashes with all vehicles except motor vehicles and weekend crashes have a high rate of fatality. According to the association rule discovery findings, the factors that increase the risk of bus crashes with non-motor vehicles are: old bus driver, collision with pedestrians at signalized intersections, and the presence of vulnerable road users. Likewise, factors that increase the risk of fatality in bus involved crashes on weekends are: darkness of roads in high-speed zones, pedestrian presence at highways, bus crashes with passenger car by a female bus driver, and the occurrence of multi-vehicle crashes in high-speed zones. Practical Applications: The study provides a sequential pattern of factors, named rules that lead to fatality in bus involved crashes. By eliminating or improving one or all of the factors involved in rules, fatal bus crashes may be prevented. The recommendations to reduce fatality in bus crashes are: observing safe distances with the buses, using road safety campaigns to reduce pedestrians’ distracted behavior, improving the lighting conditions, implementing speed bumps and rumble strips in high-speed zones, installing pedestrian detection systems on buses and setting special bus lanes in crowded areas.