Determination of human error probabilities for offshore platform musters

The focus of this work is on prediction of human error probabilities during the process of emergency musters on offshore oil and gas production platforms. Due to a lack of human error databases, and in particular human error data for offshore platform musters, an expert judgment technique, the Success Likelihood Index Methodology (SLIM), was adopted as a vehicle to predict human error probabilities. Three muster scenarios of varying severity (man overboard, gas release, and fire and explosion) were studied in detail. A panel of 24 judges active in the offshore oil and gas industry provided data for both the weighting and rating of six performance shaping factors. These data were subsequently processed by means of SLIM to calculate the probability of success for 18 muster actions ranging from point of muster initiator to the final actions in the temporary safe refuge (TSR). The six performance shaping factors considered in this work were stress, complexity, training, experience, event factors and atmospheric factors.     

基于交通文化的交通安全策略

以往对于交通安全的研究 ,很少有人从交通文化的深度进行分析 ,而对交通文化的研究确实具有现实意义和深远的战略价值。笔者针对这一问题 ,在阐述了交通文化的定义、特征的基础上 ,构建了交通文化系统的结构 ,说明了交通文化与交通安全的关系 ,提出了基于交通文化的驾驶员素质培训和安全教育、培养交通参与者交通安全意识、重视交通安全技术的研究和应用、加强道路交通管理和重视交通道德建设等交通安全策略。     

人为差错对结构可靠性的影响

国内外结构倒塌事故一直都在发生,事故原因是多方面的,而人为错误一直是导致结构事故的主要原因.通过总结国内外资料,对人为错误导致结构事故及人为错误的研究现状作了总结分析.从管理科学的角度提出了一些提高结构设计可靠性的对策.     

浅谈纳氏试剂法测定空气中氨的影响因素

在分析用纳氏试剂分光光度法测定空气中氨的各种误差因素,重点研究了由于吸收液受到空气的污染和吸收瓶对氨的吸附残留影响.得出结论是:在本地空气中氨的背景浓度水平为0.100 mg/m3时,吸收液污染和吸收瓶污染相对影响最高达到47%.     

BOD_5样品稀释度对测定结果的影响研究

通过实验研究样品稀释度对BOD5测定的影响。观察到样品稀释度对BOD5测定值和培养液耗氧率均有显著影响,选取合适的样品稀释度是提高BOD5分析准确度的关键。实验结果表明,最合适的样品稀释度所对应的培养液耗氧率为39%～63%。探讨了BOD5分析数据处理及结果表述方法,提出了相应的改进意见和建议。     

节理化岩体结构面分布密度的确定方法及其应用

目前众多的科研与工程人员都采用岩体结构面统计分析和计算机随机模拟的手段来研究节理化岩体的工程性质,然而许多人忽略了岩体结构面密度具各向异性特征以及野外实际测量条件与理论情况还存在一定的差异,在计算中采用的结构面密度值不尽合理,常常导致分析结论有失偏颇。针对这一情况,充分考虑了结构面“方向校正”和“迹长截尾校正”,并根据野外测线长度进行加权平均,提出了一套较为系统合理的结构面分布密度计算方法,并将其应用于工程实际,取得了较好的结果。     

规范变换降维与误差修正结合的环境系统的一元线性回归预测

针对高维、非线性环境系统的传统预测模型存在结构复杂、收敛速度慢、求解精度低的局限,提出对环境系统预测量及其影响因子进行幂函数与对数函数相结合的规范变换.此规范变换能使变换后的各影响因子皆等效于一个线性化的规范因子,从而将多因子、非线性的预测建模简化为简单的一个"等效"规范因子的一元线性回归建模;并对预测样本的模型输出进行误差修正,以提高样本的预测精度.在规范变换的基础上,由有m个规范因子的每个建模样本生成一个规范因子的m个"等效"训练样本,n个建模样本共生成N=m×n个训练样本.应用最小二乘法,建立基于规范变换的一元线性回归预测模型.将基于规范变换的一元线性回归预测模型与相似样本误差修正法相结合,分别用于某市5个点位的SO_2浓度预测和南昌市城市降水酸度pH值预测及某河段COD_(Mn)预测,并与多种传统预测模型和方法及基于规范变换与误差修正的3种智能预测模型的预测结果进行了比较.结果表明:该预测模型用于3个实例预测的相对误差绝对值的平均值分别为1.14%、0.49%和1.45%;最大相对误差绝对值分别为2.22%、0.87%和1.85%,与基于规范变换与误差修正的3种智能预测模型的相应误差几乎没有差异,甚至还要小;均远小于多种传统预测模型和方法的相应误差,其预测精度甚至提高了一个数量级以上.基于规范变换与误差修正的一元线性回归预测模型简单、预测精度高、稳定性好,不存在"维数灾难",因而可广泛用于任意系统的预测建模.     

深化通信专业的产学研合作研究

产学研结合是高职教育改革发展的必由之路。本文从通信专业的发展现状着手,详述了通信专业在校企合作方面所做的努力和取得的成果,并探讨了校企合作今后需努力的方向。     

Assessment and individual recognition of opponents in the pygmy swordtails Xiphophorus nigrensis and X. multilineatus

We examined factors that determine the outcome of agonistic encounters between male pygmy swordtail fish. Xiphophorus nigrensis and X. multilineatus males formed dominance relationships based on body size in staged laboratory encounters. There was a significant negative correlation between size asymmetry and fight intensity, suggesting that males assessed size in the encounters. However, a significant proportion of the variation in fight intensity in contests that escalated to bites could not be explained by size asymmetry. Aggressive motivation may also influence the outcome of contests and could be assessed in agonistic encounters. Theory suggests that signals of aggressive intention will be evolutionarily stable if individuals can recognize opponents and encounter one another repeatedly. In addition, individual recognition is one way that dominance hierarchies can be maintained. Here we demonstrate that males from both species can recognize individuals. In addition, at least some X. nigrensis males were site-faithful in the field, suggesting males encounter the same opponents repeatedly.Communicated by G.M. Klump     

Odour-guided social behaviour in newborn and young cats: an analytical survey

Summary. This article surveys early chemosensory mechanisms regulating behaviour in neonatal and juvenile domestic cats (Felis sylvestris catus). It aims to retrieve material from the available literature which may promote a better understanding of the semiochemical system that supports female-to-kitten exchanges. Studies dealing with the development of olfaction from birth through weaning are presented in three sections. The first aims at locating developmental periods suitable for applying analytical procedures combining behaviour and chemistry. The second section offers a survey of observational and experimental work related to the role of olfaction in the social and feeding behaviour of kittens before weaning. The final section traces the current knowledge on the odour sources and substrates that may be involved in early mother-kitten transactions.