PARAMETER ESTIMATION FOR TPLN DISTRIBUTION FOR FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: The principle of maximum entropy (POME) was used to derive an alternative method for parameter estimation for the three parameter lognormal (TPLN) distribution. Six sets of annual peak discharge data were used to evaluate this method and compare it with the methods of moments and maximum likelihood estimation.     

EFFICIENCY OF HYDROLOGIC DATA COLLECTION SYSTEMS ROLE OF TYPE I AND II ERRORS1

ABSTRACT The efficiency of hydrologic data collection systems is relevant to solution of environmental problems, scientific understanding of hydrologic processes, model-building and management of water resources. Because these goals may be overlapping and non-commensurate, design of data networks is not simple. Identified are four elements of error or risk in such networks: (a) choice of variables and mathematical model for the same process, (b) accuracy of model parameter estimates, (c) acceptance of wrong hypothesis or rejection of correct hypothesis and (d) economic losses associated with error. Of these four, the classical hypothesis testing problem is specifically evaluated in terms of costs of type I and II errors for simple and composite hypotheses; mathematical models for these economic analyses also include costs of sample data and costs of waiting while new data is obtained. An illustrative computational example focuses on the hypothesis that natural recharge might be augmented by a system of pumping wells along an ephemeral channel. The relationship of the hypothesis testing problem to Bayesian decision theory is discussed; it is felt that the latter theory offers a more comprehensive framework for design and use of hydrologic data networks.     

A Sensitivity and Error Analysis Framework for Lake Eutrophication Modeling1

ABSTRACT: A framework for sensitivity and error analysis in mathematical modeling is described and demonstrated. The Lake Eutrophication Analysis Procedure (LEAP) consists of a series of linked models which predict lake water quality conditions as a function of watershed land use, hydrolgic variables, and morphometric variables. Specification of input variables as distributions (means and standard errors) and use of first-order error analysis techniques permits estimation of output variable means, standard errors, and confidence ranges. Predicted distributions compare favorably with those estimated using Monte-Carlo simulation. The framework is demonstrated by applying it to data from Lake Morey, Vermont. While possible biases exist in the models calibrated for this application, prediction variances, attributed chiefly to model error, are comparable to the observed year-to-year variance in water quality, as measured by spring phosphorus concentration, hypolimnetic oxygen depletion rate, summer chlorophyll-a, and summer transparency in this lake. Use of the framework provides insight into important controlling factors and relationships and identifies the major sources of uncertainty in a given model application.     

人为失误原因分析与控制对策研究

研究了人为失误对系统安全的影响，分析了人为失误产生的原因及其影响因素，并就煤矿安全管理中人为失误的控制提出了针对性措施     

同型规范变换的不同预测模型具有的兼容性和等效性

传统的不同预测变量的预测模型之间不具有兼容性和等效性,而同型规范变换和误差修正相结合的不同变量的预测模型的预测相对误差与预测对象的维数、样本数及预测模型类型皆无关,仅与预测变量的数据特性、相似样本的模型输出值及其相对误差和相似度有关,因而同型规范变换的不同预测变量的预测模型之间具有兼容性和等效性.其重要意义在于：只要对任意一个预测变量建立了基于规范变换的某种预测模型,就可以将此预测模型直接用于具有同型规范变换的其他预测变量的预测;若再将其与误差修正法相结合,还可以极大地提高模型的预测精度,获得与实际值很接近的预测结果.依据受3个因子影响的灞河口COD_Mn指数数据、受4个因子影响的伊犁河雅马渡站年径流量数据和牡丹江市TSP年均值的时序数据,分别建立具有同型规范变换（n_j=2）的3个不同预测变量的3种智能预测模型和一元线性回归预测模型,并验证了3个不同预测变量的预测模型之间的兼容性和等效性.对同一个预测样本,用同型规范变换和误差修正相结合的不同预测变量的预测模型的实际预测值及其预测相对误差绝对值不仅差异甚微,而且预测值与实际值非常接近,其预测的相对误差绝对值平均值几乎全都小于3%,最大相对误差绝对值均小于5%,小于或远小于20种传统预测模型和方法预测的相应误差.     

人的失误理论研究进展

人的失误理论研究已进入结合认知心理学并以人的失误动态过程为研究热点的阶段。笔者回顾了人的失误理论研究的进展,讨论了相关的人的认知行为类型、认知失误的基本概念和人的失误模型。例如适用于不同情景和应用条件的几种模型:刺激-调制-响应(S-O-R)模型;失误的决策阶梯(Step-ladder)模型;通用GEMS模型以及Worledge认知模型。由于人的行为的复杂性和难以预测性造成了人的可靠性分析(HRA)的困难,因此,对人的行为的深入了解必须从人的行为特性及其规律性入手,将人的可靠性分析与行为科学理论结合起来,揭示人的失误发生的内在规律。与此同时,重点分析了概率安全评价技术(PSA)中如何对人的失误事件进行定量估计;如何考虑人的心理因素影响的几种重要的人的失误理论模型,并对今后这该领域中的研究方向进行了讨论。     

人误屏障分析技术

在复杂工业系统中,屏障是预防与减少人误的有效方法,一旦屏障失效,事故就有可能发生。笔者从屏障的概念与屏障分析入手,分析了实体屏障和管理屏障两类基本的屏障,介绍了屏障分析的6个步骤即辨识危险和目标、辨识屏障、评估屏障是否失效、弄清原因、评估与决定、制定方案及其分析案例,进行创建和维持屏障的方案分析,建立纠正行动计划的屏障方案,指出有效使用屏障分析技术来减少人误的几个场合以及屏障分析的局限性。     

Communication Strategy of Transboundary Air Pollution Findings in a US–Mexico Border XXI Program Project

From 1996 to 1997, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Texas Natural Resource Conservation Commission (TNRCC) conducted an air quality study known as the Lower Rio Grande Valley Transboundary Air Pollution Project (TAPP). The study was a US–Mexico Border XXI program project and was developed in response to local community requests on a need for more air quality measurements and concerns about the health impact of local air pollutants; this included concerns about emissions from border-dependent industries in Mexico, known as maquiladoras. The TAPP was a follow-up study to environmental monitoring done by EPA in this area in 1993 and incorporated scientific and community participation in development, review of results, and public presentation of findings. In spite of this, critical remarks were leveled by community activists against the study's preliminary “good news” findings regarding local air quality and the influence of transboundary air pollution. To resolve these criticisms and to refine the findings to address these concerns, analyses included comparisons of daily and near real-time measurements to TNRCC effects screening levels and data from other studies along with wind sector analyses. Reassessment of the data suggested that although regional source emissions occurred and outliers of elevated pollutant levels were found, movement of air pollution across the border did not appear to cause noticeable deterioration of air quality. In spite of limitations stated to the community, the TAPP was presented as establishing a benchmark to assess current and future transboundary air quality in the Valley. The study has application in Border XXI Program or other air quality studies where transboundary transport is a concern since it involved interagency coordination, public involvement, and communication of scientifically sound results for local environmental protection efforts.     

冷原子荧光法测定地面水和土壤中的痕量总汞

本文推导了汞元素冷原子荧光测试的理论公式，着重研究了载气种类；载气流速；工作电压；水蒸气；介质酸度；还原剂用量等１０项因素对测定结果准确度的影响，确定了最佳实验条件，提出了地面水和土壤中痕量总汞的测试方法。同时分析了汞元素冷原子荧光法的系统误差和消除或减少系统误差的方法。     

轿车车速表指示误差研究

汽车驾驶者准确掌握真实车速，对车辆的行驶安全性和减少道路交通事故的发生及其危害程度有着极为重要的影响。因此，对驾驶者借以了解汽车行驶速度的车速表，其指示值是否准确及指示误差的大小必须加以研究。本文运用数理统计工具及样本实测数据，选取上海桑塔纳ＬＸ轿车车速表检验值进行统计规律研究，给出其分布参数，建立相应数学模型，指明其误差情况，对于深入了解轿车车速表指示误差统计规律，保证车辆的行驶安全性，改进车速表设计均具有十分重要的意义。