基于人类动力学的地震压埋人员先验在室率研究

破坏性地震发生后,科学、有效地评估地震压埋人员压埋情况,是有序地开展应急救援工作的基础。人员在室率作为压埋率评估模型的主要参数之一,目前主要以作息时间区为基础以省或市为基础单元进行计算,这难以体现基础单元之下的不同市或县人员在室率之间的差异性。为解决这一问题,采用人类动力学相关原理,运用极大似然法估算人员在室率,进而形成基于人类动力学的地震压埋人员压埋率预估模型。最后以汶川8.0级地震部分受灾学校为例,进行压埋率实际评估和模型误差分析。研究表明:提出的微观在室率能更准确地反映人员在室情况具有更好的适用性;在实际评估中模型精度达到±0.13,表明模型能达到较好的预估效果,能为震后应急救援工作提供一定的参考。     

Perspectives on social capacity building for natural hazards: outlining an emerging field of research and practice in Europe

Social capacity building for natural hazards is a topic increasingly gaining relevance not only for so-called developing countries but also for European welfare states which are continuously challenged by the social, economic and ecological impacts of natural hazards. Following an outline of recent governance changes with regard to natural hazards, we develop a heuristic model of social capacity building by taking into account a wide range of existing expertise from different fields of research. Particular attention is paid to social vulnerability and its assessment, as well as to risk communication and risk education as specific strategies of social capacity building. We propose to distinguish between interventionist and participatory approaches, thus enabling for a better understanding of existing practices of social capacity building as well as their particular strengths and weaknesses. By way of conclusion, we encourage more research on social capacity building for natural hazards in the European context which at present is highly diverse and, at least in parts, only poorly investigated.     

基于实船结构监测数据的异常检测及处理方法

目的 获得高质量实船结构监测数据,减少数据因外界干扰造成的异常现象,现开发一套面向真实海况的实船结构监测数据的异常处理方法。方法 将统计学中的Z-score异常检测方法与数据处理中常用的平均值计算法相结合,实现对船舶结构应力数据的异常处理。基于正常信号创建含有异常现象的验证数据,对新的异常处理方法进行精度验证。结果 相比Hampel滤波法、Smooth平滑函数等传统的信号处理方法,Z-score异常检测及平均值计算方法的异常处理精度最高,且以此为基础计算的结构信号统计值准确度较好。结论 Z-score异常检测及平均值计算方法可实现真实海况下的实船结构监测数据的异常处理,并在结构应力数据的价值挖掘上可提供有力支撑。     

基于信息处理和事故链原理的结构化飞行员差错模型

为了对民航飞行员人为差错进行系统分析,研究民航业中常见人为差错的分析方法,指出其局限性。基于信息处理过程和事故链原理,从微观的认知过程和宏观的HFACS框架2个层面构建一种新的飞行员人为差错分析模型,并对模型中的情景分析、差错模式与分类、认知机理、差错恢复、差错成因、反馈机制和防御机制等几大核心模块进行阐述,重点介绍认知机理在差错形成中产生的关键影响因素,提出结构化差错分析方法的思路与步骤。该模型为民航飞行员人为差错的产生机理、差错分类和差错成因的分析提供一种新思路,但模型的进一步应用还有待于通过案例分析来验证。     

管制员人为差错影响因素及指标权重分析

根据SHELL模型,将影响管制员人为差错的因素从内部因素和外部因素进行分析,内部因素包括管制员生理因素、心理因素、管制员业务技能三个部分;外部因素包括管制员与管制员班组之间、管制员与管制设备之间、管制员与管制程序等软件之间。通过分析和专家咨询,建立了影响管制员人为差错的影响因素指标体系,在模糊层次分析法的基础之上引入0.1-0.9标度法的三角模糊数,通过对各影响因素进行对比分析,得出了影响管制员人为差错的三级指标的重要度排序,排在前八位的因素依次为酒精及药物影响、形势意识、班组人员性格搭配、班组人员能力搭配、疲劳、人机界面、外界压力、情绪状态。为管制员培训和管理层进行安全检查提供了基础理论依据。     

天线罩相位误差研究

目的解决在机翼天线罩内不同位置加罩引起的相位误差问题。方法从工程实际应用出发,介绍干涉仪测向原理,计算由裸天线引起的相位误差,并利用电磁仿真软件FEKO中的理想接收天线验证其正确性。提出天线-天线罩系统中天线罩会引起额外相位误差的观点,定性分析影响天线罩相位误差的主要因素,其中包括两端曲率半径差异、罩壁结构和制作工艺。天线-天线罩测向误差由裸天线和天线罩相位误差两部分组成。给出微波暗室测试结果和天线罩相位误差校正方法。结果校正后相位误差满足工程需求。结论提出的相位校正方法简单可行,实验方法具有可操作性和重复性。     

Investigation of methods for estimating hand bone dimensions using X-ray hand anthropometric data

This study examined two conversion methods, M1 and M2, to predict finger/phalange bone lengths based on finger/phalange surface lengths. Forty-one Korean college students (25 males and 16 females) were recruited and their finger/phalange surface lengths, bone lengths and grip strengths were measured using a vernier caliper, an X-ray generator and a double-handle force measurement system, respectively. M1 and M2 were defined as formulas able to estimate finger/phalange bone lengths based on one dimension (i.e., surface hand length) and four finger dimensions (surface finger lengths), respectively. As a result of conversion, the estimation errors by M1 presented mean 1.22?mm, which was smaller than those (1.29?mm) by M2. The bone lengths estimated by M1 (mean r?=?0.81) presented higher correlations with the measured bone lengths than those estimated by M2 (0.79). Thus, the M1 method was recommended in the present study, based on conversion simplicity and accuracy.     

Speaking of Risk: Matters of Context

The risk communication (RC) field is dominated by the practical and normative socio-technical aim of improving communication on risk (CR), especially from the viewpoint of regulatory agencies and government administrations. Despite some change of scope and orientation over the past 30 years, two theoretical ideas have persisted: the subjective–objective risk dichotomy and the transmission (also known as code) model of communication. This theoretical legacy makes context a blind spot in RC. The study of CR themes should consider (1) the socially constructed nature of risk and (2) communication as a situated social practice of information sharing. Results of a case study of public participation in a controversial railway tunnel project in the south of Sweden, offer lessons for future research pointing to crucial contextual dimensions of CR. It is argued that the variable ontology of risk, the constitutive nature of power relationships and the practical rationality of actors must be taken into account in research on the social CR.     

Communicating in the Public Sphere: Attitudes Toward Different Public Instructional Communication Methods

An effective response to global environmental challenges requires analysis of communication patterns, processes and approaches. In addition, improving communication through emerging information and communication technologies (ICT) also must be explored. Understanding recipients’ perception of the innovations used in information diffusion is also necessary. This study, using a sample of 120 subjects, examined attitudes of leaders of community-based natural resources organizations toward two approaches used in public instructional communication in the Okavango Delta, Botswana. The quasi-experimental study also explored the effect of demographic variables on subjects’ attitudes. The results demonstrated more favorable attitudes toward the visualized method than the traditional verbal method, suggesting subjects’ preference and acceptance for the visualized public instructional communication approaches. Results also indicated a differential effect of age on attitude toward methods of communication. The results of the study highlight the importance for practitioners to use integrated communication approaches in the public sphere. Suggestions for future research are offered.     

Nature,Crisis, Risk,Science, and Society: What is Our Ethical Responsibility?

In his keynote address, Robert Cox raised key questions, many of which force us to consider the larger question of the role of academics in society. The authors respond by suggesting that environmental communication, like other communication studies, is inherently normative and that environmental communication scholarship is closely aligned to risk as a centerpiece to crisis analysis. The authors discuss the productive connections among science, communication and sound public policy that make society more fully functional, including the formation of effective public policy through science that is normative while seeking objectivity, evaluating and symbolizing motives in discourse, acknowledging uncertainty and acceptable uncertainty, and that material and symbolic dimensions of the environment are interdependent. Thus, such studies focus on the ethics of environment and must balance sound science and cultural considerations.